Grand National
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hearing good whispers about this horse, but will it stay the distance. thoughts please!!
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im on at 100/1 for small stakes a few weeks back. Very decent chance IMO
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Its one of mine
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Backed it every race this year (didn't have nearly enough on last time ffs!) and on at 120-130's on here and 50's ew bog etc - didn't jump that well over the national fences earlier in the season which is a negative but did run on again after looking like he might drop out. On Pendra at silly odds as well.
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The Captain is my biggest winner should he prevail.
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Very doubtful stayer, on highest handicap mark now. Job done just to get in the field imo. Easily dismissed
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Difficult to see how it can possibly beat Gas Line Boy on Grand Sefton running. They were both hampered but Gas Line Boy came off worse and it's 4 lbs better off as well.
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You may well be right Bindaree but until he tries the distance we don't know for sure. Basically another full circuit to run this time. If he stays who knows what will happen. Didn't look like Gas Line Boy quite got home last year. Don't think you can really compare a 2m5f race with a 4m3f race. Agree the extra weight can't help as his Jockey can't claim.
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He was beat such a long way and didn't appear to be making up any ground at the finish to my eyes. Also Gas Line Boy may not have quite got home last year as some others but he still must have stayed reasonably well when you consider it was 10 lengths back to the next horse behind him and there were some big names amongst them. So I can't see that a horse who was beaten by it over a shorter distance is going to have an easy time overturning it.
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I dont want to rain on other peoples parades but he has
1) never won over further than 2 miles 7 2) never won in a field bigger than 9 runners 3) never won a chase more valuable than 16K 4) gone from rated 124 to 144 in a year beating smallish fields in mainly class 3 races on Northern tracks over 2 miles 3 or 4f So for me he's a doubtful stayer, badly handicapped with insufficient class for this race. A glass half full guy might say he's an improver who may do better for the extra distance but I just can't be having him. If anyone has evidence suggesting his sire might be a stamina influence then fair enough but seems unlikely to me. Why would a horse be kept at roughly 2 and a half miles for so long if the trainer didnt think its his preferred trip? |
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That's a fair defence of your thoughts Bindaree and can see why you think like that. Bexley's 4 points are also valid but I actually do think he'll stay. Whether he is good enough is open to debate but his 2nd to The Dutchman in a bog at Haydock gives me hope he'll stay. I'm on at 130's and again at 80s and i'm not cashing out. Whether 33's is a good price is another question but he's shown he can get round and hopefully the experience will have done him good.
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That's fair enough and good luck. It's easy after the race but this is a forum to discuss the possibilities before the event. Some are going to be correct and plenty are going to be wrong.In truth I'm finding it easier to find reasons for horses not winning than reasons for winning. At least there are a few more responses on here as it was so quiet before.
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he's also 5lb wrong on saturday (jockey)
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two more for the stats people. he does run well on left handed tracks and like many national winners has ran over hurdles this season. won at ayr last time out. all in all questions to answer but an improver for sure and a genuine dark horse . no pun intended. good luck everyone.
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He’s not going to stay (nap)
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Continued to be backed and 16's-20 now and while it's got a shout I'm not sure I'd be backing it at those odds! Assuming he jumps better I can see him either looking like the winner for a fair way and dropping out or plodding on at his own pace and it's then a toss up as to who stays the last mile. Going to be gruelling either way!
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