Grand National
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Sometimes you have to take a punt that a trainer will change the planned schedule of a horse in a particular race. Vintage Clouds is one such horse that I think the connections must now seriously consider running in the National next week. Sue Smith has been quoted that he's made for the Scottish National but I'm not so sure. The National is likely to be run on soft going while the SN could be good. VC is likely to have 11st 4lbs plus in the SC and only 10st 3lbs in the N. The track and long run in will suit VC as he won on the Mildmay course in Oct when many of the fences were omitted. There will not be many horses in the race that stay as well as him, have a low weight, act on the ground and jump for fun.
50/1 e/w is worth the risk.
50/1 e/w is worth the risk.
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I assume you have not been reading all the other threads on here, where pretty much everyone has tipped this up
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Maybe I was the first :-) on your shortlist of 6 thread.
Hibore Joined: 23 Jun 07 Replies: 1300 18 Mar 18 21:41 I’m very keen on the following :- Vintage Clouds 50/1 The last Samuri 20/1 Seeyouatmidnight 33/1 Bellshill 40/1 Only those so far |
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Only two I have backed so far, Warriors Tale and Seeyouatmidnight.
Will only add one more but likely once ground sorted near the day |
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I don't think vintage clouds does jump for fun though as he's a horse who loses ground at fences so having 30 to jump is not ideal. If he jumped for fun I would be backing it confidently.
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Not many horses jump poorly, get hampered twice and finish 4th in a Welsh National. He’s no Native River but he’s not that bad. He jumped great at Wetheby and Haydock.
A fair round of jumping and excessive stamina may be what you need next Saturday rather than super slick jumping. |
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I agree with GCW about his jumping. There is no lack of stamina for sure and if he jumped well, I'd say he's well handicapped as his rating has been held back by his jumping IMO. Welsh National another example of making mistakes but still finished well and got 4th.
Going back to the Aintree race he won in October. I was there, he didn't jump well and it really played to his stamina strengths that there were no fences in the home straight. There areworse 50/1 shots though. |
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I suppose taking an optimistic view it has had 6 races in competitive fields since it last fell and completed all in a very respectable finish. In the National they will be going that little bit slower and oddly enough sometimes horses seem to jump the fences more fluently than park course fences. Plenty come down as well but there are a lot in the field who have F against their name lol.
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yup my fivers on
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I think they were thinking Scottish National as they didn't think they would get in the GN, but that now looks a certainty so hopefully they go GN. I think the light weight and the way the horse stays is a massive plus, hard to believe 50/1 is available on a horse that is fancied by many
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there we have it, straight from the trainer's mouth, Vintage Clouds runs!!
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As much as think the fences will catch him out, I've had to have a saver on him. 56/1 with Hills boost.
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Looks like not made the cut.
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Was going to say that. Would Vintage make the cut at number 52?
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He's still in. What number is he now?
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Potentially may need 5 to drop out depending on ballot
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He's 45 I think so unlikely 5 to go. Vicente could wait for Ayr and is same owner and Delusionsofgrandeur is Sue Smiths so possible 2 could go if they wanted him to run. Still would need another 3 though.
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Can't see more than 2 max coming out. So very very unlikely to get run. Cost owners near £2,000 to declare today, so likely all intended runners
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Obviously depends on the ground but Minella Rocco was pulled out of Gold Cup because it was soft, Shantou and Gas Line Boy's trainers said they may go for Topham if too soft. Vicente in the same boat or does for the GN mean it's a different soft to other races lol.
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Yes, suppose still a lot can happen, also (as mentioned on another thread), Gigginstown have horses 41 and 42. So may pull another of their out if they prefer one of those to run. All will be revealed this week.
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Changing tack slightly but can anyone tell me how the hell Maggio and Beeves get into the race before something like Vintage Clouds ? Two horses that have false ratings and they've been frightened to run them just to keep the false rating.
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You know Bindaree, not different soft but less demands on stamina over shorter trip
Reading earlier in thread, might pay to back Vintage Clouds for Scottish National |
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I know Woodman, but they use soft to explain a poor run or excuse to pull a horse out of a race. Point I'm making is that if a horse doesn't act on soft it doesn't really matter what distance it is because it still wont act on it.
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Scottish it is then !!
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yeah maggio has got 1 respectable run in its life (in terms of having a chance of being competitive in the grand national) and that was 2 years ago
ridiculous it even got in |
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This is his main target this year however, he'd need 5 to drop out for a run - a highly probable eventuality.
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Fingers crossed for Vintage Clouds.
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Warriors Tale (23rd in the list) in the same ownership as Vintage Clouds (45th) would be an unlikely runner (more likely Topham Chase) as the trip could be too stamina testing, according to Nicholls his trainer.
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a classic example of a horse who should be nowhere near the great race. 4 runs over 3m+. Won a 3m novice at Perth in May 2016 and came 2nd in a 3m hcp at Doncaster in 2018. Other 2 PU. It's rating is entirely due to performances at 2m 4f and bits. It shouldn't require it to be in the same ownership to make it likely it might not run. Shouldn't even be entered
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Winners don't often come from the bottom of the handicap in this race, do they? Or am I wrong?
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used to Pete. cast iron system in the old days. Chuck out everything 11st and above and bobs your uncle. all changed now of course (to my cost!)
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Odd how Vintage Clouds struggles to get in again(though probably will).
I thought his 3rd place at Ayr last year would have moved him up the handicap enough for this not be an issue. But as usual the field is littered with horses that have no chance of top 6. None of these will be troubling the first 6 places imo Minella Rocco Don Poli Monbeg Notorious Warriors Tale Mala Beach A Toi Phil Noble Endeavour Sandymount Duke |
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Add in Vieux Lion Rouge (progressively worse despite several attempts), Valseur Lido (does not stay), Magic Light (ML) and Up For Review (UFR); Vintage Clouds (VC 45) finished infront of Lake View Lad (LVL 15), ML (25) and UFR (40) - the laggards are little better off with VC.
How can VC be 30 places and 20 places respectively below LVL and ML? And VC ought to be above (not below) of UFR (no better off and 13l behind VC), I find difficult to comprehend. |
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Whether he wins or not Noble Endeavor has every right to take part. Look at his 2 races before it's lay off for whatever reason and you will see it's well in with some of the fancied horses. It's had a sighter of the Aintree fences and seemed to have a nice running on run at Cheltenham. Of course the question is whether it has retained it's ability but on its 2 runs since it's a bit premature to say either way.
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I think Vintage Clouds (VC) will make the cut; Alpha Des Obeaux (ADO) is out thro' an injury whilst stablemates Mala Beach (MB) and Shattered Love (SL) are both doubtful, according to Elliot; Nico is on Step Back (Bradstock) not on Valtor (Hendo's) possibly non-runner unless Jacob rides; Warriors Tale (WT, same ownership as Vintage Clouds, VC) is also an unlikely runner.
I think VC is 43rd (post ADO and BDM), and with the likelihood of WT (same ownership) a non-runner, he'll be 42nd; MB, SL and Valtor - only needs 2 from these 3 VC will get a run; other possible non-runners eg Pairofbrowneyes and Jury Duty - both must shorter in the Irish version market. |
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forgive me if I have this wrong but isn't he already in if WT is withdrawn? There are 4 NR's - BdM ; AbO ; Daklondyke and Blacklion. PlusWT = 5 out so no.45 gets in.
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AdO
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My guess is that it is 50/50 whether Joe Farrell gets in. I would have thought that Vintage Clouds is fifties on to make the cut.
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'Four...', I'd agree. I believe RP is not updating the card accordingly.
At the moment 1 (BDM), 13 and 34 are missing, but 3 (ADO) and 44 (Abolisionist) are included despite 3 is injured and 44 has suffered a setback and not running. These are in addition to the doubtful Mala Beach, Shattered Love and Warriors Tale. |
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That's because the RP only removes horses that have been scratched.....
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