Grand National

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26 Mar 17 18:36
Date Joined: 06 Sep 05
| Topic/replies: 423 | Blogger: diggers's blog
Well over priced at 50's .Ran a very good race in National few years back after nearly coming down at 2nd fence, finished 8th. Good 2nd to Goonyella in Midland National 2 years ago and last run was a very strong finish closing in on Native River in Welsh National coming from way back to get second beaten less than 2 lengths. Stays all day, jumps ok and has low weight, and been kept lightly raced this season for a change. I can see this going off 20's tops if turns up.
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Report Can't Catch Me March 28, 2017 11:04 AM BST
Completely agree Diggers. This horse is my main bet and very surprised 50's is still available.

I thought he was very impressive on decent ground in the Cork Grand National to hold on from Forever Gold giving him over a stone. Especially considering that horse went on to win the Porterstown impressively next time.

From the same sire as Tenor Nivernais, I've a slight niggle that he will prefer it softer, and at the minute you'd fancy the ground will be pretty decent, but thats why I was so impressed with his run at Cork.

Nice little blow out earlier this month and agree he could well start nearer 20/1 on the day.
Report Can't Catch Me March 28, 2017 11:55 AM BST
I also think his run against Native River last time has been completely overlooked. The further they went the closer he got and in another 100 yards might well have won. He was simply flying at the death and the pair of them were miles clear of third. I think that is really top class form.

He looks all about stamina and has only unseaten once (and never fallen) in 23 Chase starts and that was because he was hampered, so thats another massive plus.
Report Bindaree March 28, 2017 3:32 PM BST
The problem you have it was beaten nearly 40 lengths 3 yrs ago in the National. I can't remember a horse suddenly turning around that sort of beating in the National.
Report Mully March 28, 2017 7:18 PM BST
Was just an off day Bindaree.
Report kingG111111 March 28, 2017 7:26 PM BST
I always seem to think that horses only win the grand national if they have never run in it before, am i right in thinking this ?
Report Fabulous March 28, 2017 8:34 PM BST
KingG, although the first horse I bet for this years race was Cause of Causes, my first rule is to avoid horses which have ran in the race before. Probably nothing in it, but the number of National fences jumped before the race by National winners is 1. Pineau De Re was a first fence taller in Becher.

Since Red Rum, there have been 40 winners, and 26 of them have never been over the fences before. Of the 14 who had been over them, 10 had ran in the race before, with 6 of them having fallen it, and 2 BD's

All above for info only

It works opposite in Becher Chase, with horses who have the experience skiing very well.

I like Raz De Maree (not bet him) as he just seems a different horse this year

Good luck with him guys, and I agree, I think his price will plummet
Report rl91 March 28, 2017 10:50 PM BST
He was one of my two early fancies and he seems to fit a lot of the trends that have been posted on here

I've taken 40/1 on £3.65 to be able to get 5 places, I'm sure some firms will go 6 places on the day but I expect him to be closer to half the price
Report Fabulous March 28, 2017 11:06 PM BST
Apologies, my first line should have read.........

KingG, although the first horse I bet for this years race was Cause of Causes, my first rule is to avoid horses which have ran in the race before. Probably nothing in it, but since Mon Mome, the number of National fences jumped before the race by future National winners is 1. Pineau De Re was a first fence faller in Becher.
Report Can't Catch Me March 29, 2017 7:45 AM BST
I'm unsure about the worth of that stat myself. Plenty of horses have run well repeatedly in the race. It's not one to put me off anyway.
Report shockster March 29, 2017 9:41 AM BST
Doesn't Raz De Maree need a bog to be seen at his best.  I agree the Welsh National 2nd behind Native River is probably the stand out piece of form in this race, but with decent ground likely IMO he'll be outpaced.  Should the heavens open though, he will be added to my list.
Report the fink sisters March 29, 2017 10:58 AM BST
Think that this is an interesting runner.

Stats-wise I'd be worried its a 12yo, but it does seem to be running better than ever and it's been campaigned more sparingly this season.

I don't think it needs an absolute bog, but if it's good ground, I suspect it'll get left behind.
Report GoldCupWinner March 29, 2017 11:22 AM BST
Fancied him as an outsider the year he ran but can't see him winning this from his highest ever mark as a 12 year old. I know amberleigh house did it but he was an aintree fence specialist and the race wasn't as classy back then.
Report Can't Catch Me March 29, 2017 10:24 PM BST
He's clearly got some negatives, but suppose that we as why 50/1 was available!

Shockster. I would have agreed that he needs soft ground, until he won the Cork National on Good. Think it will be on the soft side of good next Saturday and that should be ok.
Report VillaBoy March 30, 2017 11:53 AM BST
Can't disagree with his stamina, but I don't think his style of running is suited to this race. I think he'll get outpaced and finish in his own time. He'll be one of those you're looking back at 20-30 lengths behind the leaders as the race hots up 2-3 out.
Report sixtwosix March 30, 2017 1:05 PM BST
Had his chance.
You would go bankrupt if you kept backing horses like this one who finish off strongly ,closing on a leader who in all likelihood is losing interest due to having no company.
Report the bloob April 1, 2017 10:03 PM BST
I would be worried about the weight carried, was rated 139 in Welsh National and is now effectively on 146, that extra 7lb will really tell over the trip. But you don't need many reasons to back a 40/1 shot, and there are plenty of positives
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