Grand National
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15 Feb 17
09:22
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Date Joined:
16 Jun 11
I think he's a great price at 66/1 with Stan James. 9lb lower than when second in the Hennessey and has come back to form recently with an easy grade 2 success and 2 good weight carrying performances over marathon trips. He seems to excel at Newbury and the national course is not a million miles away from that one. Yes he will need soft ground and at times he can be a sketchy jumper but he will stay all day and should stay below 11st. A must back at the prices for me.
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I backed him last night at Billys 66/1 I expected him to be 50 all round this morning. His 3rd in the Welsh was a good run. Not worried about the ground as it will always be on the softer side for the race.
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He is entered in the Eider Chase Saturday week. My question about Houblon des Obeaux is simply does he stay? If he does, then he is held by Raz de Maree and One for Arthur from his two last outings in the Welsh National and Warwick trial but my impression was that he was running out of puff. Shame because otherwise he does look good.
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Agree with OP Come on DES
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Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
Its been the target since he came back. Just dont tell anyone........  |
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It's been the target for most of the field. This is not the sort of race you run in as an afterthought.
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I wouldn't say he was a non stayer. I personally think actual weight carried matters more in these marathon races than in others so he even though his mark is only down 3lb from last race he will be physically carrying a stone less and will make a big difference. You do get your freaks like native River, grey abbey, suny bay, and many clouds who can cope with a big weight but as a general rule actually weight can make a bigger difference in these races than others. It's only my opinion and I'm sure others may disagree.
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Agree with OP.Placed in a National and the Hennessey and on ground the soft side of good could run a very good race at a nice price.
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Well today may be a good indicator as to whether they have been keeping something up his sleeve. Hoping for an improved run and his odds will be slashed if he performs well.
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Very disappointed with that run, not got much hope for my bet now.
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Dont be too disheartened GGW.
Venetia said this morning that he missed work after his last run and would run okay today. Also Mon Mome was beaten 40 odd lengths in both this race and the Midlands national before his win so all is certainly not lost at all. BTW Ramruma, I was joking - hence the smiley face  |
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A few horses have ran poor in this race prior to winning the GN and didn't T43 come 10th in the GN trial before placing 3rd at Aintree.
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Don't be too disheartened by the run on saturday in the GN trial at Haydock.
If you go back to 2012 Houblon Des Obeaux ran at Haydock in the February when hurdling, he was beaten out of sight by 49L but then ran a great race at the festival the next month. In fact his last 3 runs at Haydock have been his worst ever efforts. A coincidence? |
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I had already backed him as being potentially overpriced and having a good chance anyway but he does seem to be a bit in and out nowadays.
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Decent Run today again
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I thought so too. The only one who ran up with the pace to finish his race off.Was expecting another down the field show ala Mon Mome in the race prior to his aintree win.
Only concern would be fast ground (not going to happen) and tendency to sometimes clout one but happy overall and think he has a big e/w shout. |
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Decent enough run if she has left more to work on come the day, which I'm sure she has and he will still need to improve a lot on that performance. Seemed a strange race to run as a prep though, has any horse ever competed in that race and won the GN a few weeks later? Horses usually prepped over a shorter trip.
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Was running off a 5lb lower mark than he was in the national too, as I say if the race was a prep then I am happy but he does need to improve a lot on that performance.
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Yes.Mon Mome!
Ran down the field both at Haydock AND Uttoxeter. Also Lord Gylene back in 97 won the race prior to winning there. Think horses would normally prep over shorter as most top class chases arnt run over 4 miles plus. Didnt Comply Or Die win the Eider before success at Aintree too? Dont worry, she knows what she's doing. She said over two years ago that he would go for the national one day and here we go. |
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Looks like quick ground is a cert now, so has houblon got no chance now ?
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they will water for G/S but still nowhere near what Houblon needs, backers need to do a raindance
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Has won on good to soft earlier in his career but would much prefer soft ground these days. Happy to see he has taken a similar route to mon mome.
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Let's save everyones time and cash here, the ground will be too fast for houblon which makes houblon have absolutely no chance!
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With high pressure forecast i would be most surprised if they dont put plenty of water on to keep it good to soft. There should also be a good covering of grass.
Venetia said at the ceremony that soft ground would help but it wasnt imperative. I still think he will run a big race but probably not up to winning. Quite liking the chances of Bless The Wings at a big price if he gets in...oops, wrong thread!! |
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given the dry weather forecast watering is certain
If they do the ground can become dead and given the good covering of grass will slow the horses down enough not sure who that will suit |
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I dont want to keep drawing comparisons with Mon Mome but that was a very similar ride to the one it got the year before winning.
To my eye it just was never really asked to try and get into the race and was hunted out the back in attempt to get round in one piece and enjoy it. Problem is will he be rated high enough in 12 months time to get in the race even if we do get soft ground. Maybe this was its chance and the ground just didnt come up in its favor. Who knows? |
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I do think he deserves another chance in testing conditions, however if he doesn't retain enough ability to get himself a high enough mark to get himself into the race then he wouldn't retain the ability to win it anyway. I'll give him one last chance in a 4 miller in testing conditions and if he doesn't produce the goods got to accept he has regressed.
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Anyone been brave/stupid enough to go in again this year?
I had to having drawn comparisons with Mon Mome so got 100-1 last week. Sadly been given the kiss of death by Pricewise today but at least he finished 4th in todays virtual race. Id take that |
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Stable couldnt be in better form Reg - 8 winners from 15 runners in last 5 days.
Good luck. |
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Yeah back on again, although unlike last year i don't think there is a chance he retains the ability of when second in the Hennessy but he still shows excellent form from time to time. Has his ideal conditions and as you say stable in excellent form so it there was ever going to be a going day this would be it.
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Think we will know early on if hes gonna give us a run for our money.
Has to be fairly prominent imo. |