Grand National

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11 Apr 16 00:28
Date Joined: 01 Apr 10
| Topic/replies: 109,125 | Blogger: Steamship's blog
After Rule The World won on Saturday and reading/hearing people say it was a shock I thought I would look further at a trend that I originally looked at after Auroras Encore won.

I started a thread on HR forum but it has slipped down and I thought best to put it here.

The last 20 years this trend has produced 10 winners from 104 runners with 203pts profit at industry s/p. If we take into consideration that we could have had 50/1 for Rule The World or used Betfair S/P. I know of a thread where Auroras was advised at 260 on here 3 weeks before the race.

The winners
98 Earth Summit from 97 Welsh winner
99 Bobbyjo - 98 Irish winner
00 Papillon-98 Irish 2nd
02 Bindaree-01Welsh 3rd
05 Hedgehunter 03-Welsh 3rd
06 Numbersixvalverde -05 Irish winner
07 Silver Birch -04 Welsh winner
09 Mon Mome- 06 Welsh 2nd
13 Auroras Encore-12 Scots 2nd
16 Rule The World- Irish 2nd

There have also been some big priced placed horses if you like e/w
03 Supreme Glory 2nd 40/1
11 Oscar Time 2nd 14/1
12 Sunnyhillboy 2nd 16/1
12 Cappa Bleu 4th 16/1
13 Cappa Bleu 2nd 12/1
13 Oscar Time 4th 66/1
15 Monbeg Dude 3rd 40/1

As long as they have placed 1-3 in the other Nationals then you stick with them no matter how many times they have failed at Aintree Mon Mome and Silver Birch had both failed before.

It seems clear to me that since we have got a better class of horse in the race this has allowed the stayers to go off at more generous prices as the race has changed

At this very early stage and with an eye on Saturdays Scots Nat it looks like Gigginstown could have a say again with Thunder and Roses or Rogue Angel.

I will update after Scots National on Saturday.
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Report Giddy April 12, 2016 11:15 PM BST
Would this trends apply to the Scottish national? Thanks Steamship
Report Steamship April 13, 2016 12:22 PM BST
Moorcroft Boy was the last horse to place in the GN 1994 then win the Scots Nat 1996. I don't think any placed horses from Eng, Irish or Welsh Nationals have won the Scots Nat.
Report Steamship April 13, 2016 12:41 PM BST
In recent yeras
Report Frankelampard April 13, 2016 2:34 PM BST
This has been my system for years now. There's a couple of other races that count, such as the Haydock trial and the Hennessey. Also, an often overlooked point is good hurdles form. In general, the horse has to have been fairly classy as a novice hurdler.
Report Giddy April 13, 2016 11:50 PM BST
Report Rory B. Bellows March 17, 2017 3:45 PM GMT
Interesting reading.

Based on this system, looks like theres still 11 of the remaining entries that qualify

(37) houblon des obeaux
(50) vicente
(55) raz de maree
(60) rogue angel
(62) shutthefrontdoor
(66) thunder and roses
(72) bless the wings
(76) benbens
(91) emperors choice
(96) sizing coal
(101) alvarado
Report betting_masta March 25, 2017 11:38 PM GMT
6 of the last 10 winners had run over hurdles that season. this only leaves two from your list:

Raz de maree - 33/1
Bless the wings - 40/1

in the last 21 years, 29% of GN winners have been priced 33/1+
67% of winners have been 25/1 and under

83% of winners in the last 23 years have been 9, 10 or 11 yo

Report Steamship April 4, 2017 9:00 PM BST
I need to re title the thread as placed in a national win a handicap hurdle at Kelso in Grand Nat week just as Trustan Times did yesterday
Report contrary45 April 5, 2017 4:05 PM BST
Rory's list (17.3.17)is down to 6 sorry 5 shutthefrontdoor is out, take out too young Vicente and too old Raz de M. leaves 2 Irish trained by last years winning trainer. When did anyone train 2 winners on the bounce? leaves houblon who wants it heavy. Any thoughts on the 2 Irish runners?
Report betting_masta April 5, 2017 4:47 PM BST
Bless the wings, guys. Bless the wings.
Report Mooono April 5, 2017 7:18 PM BST
Rogue Angel will start a lot lot shorter than its current price. Already been backed in massively on here. And this one will definetly have a lot of the housewives money on! ohhhhhhh its got angel in the name and a star on the silks blabla
Report contrary45 April 6, 2017 11:21 AM BST
too old and not in yet BTW
Report PJay April 6, 2017 11:57 AM BST
It's very lazy form reading to discount a runner for being too young or too old.
Report wondersobright April 6, 2017 6:09 PM BST
vicente too young is bollox
Report 1st time poster April 6, 2017 7:30 PM BST
what about having your fav jock on,i,m on at 28,s didnt suss that hemmings had bought it so hughes would ride,cant make my mind up whether its a positive or negative,but did me a favour today with double w,s
Report wondersobright April 6, 2017 8:04 PM BST
for 1 race it doesn't bother me much, he's overrated but competent

think the horse has a really nice profile if you can forgive an iffy ssn
Report dunlaying April 6, 2017 11:58 PM BST
1st time poster , please take yourself to the aftertiming thread there's a good girl.
Report 1st time poster April 7, 2017 1:00 PM BST
htf is 2 days before the race aftertiming,theres still 25,s about your hardly likely to come on here bragging about pinching a couple of points,dunlay seems to have become an ignorant foul mouthed stalker i look forward to your shoite,witty brainless posts with relish
Report contrary45 April 8, 2017 12:32 PM BST
not lazy just looking at previous winners characteristics as this thread was about key races same sort of logic. 1 out of last 10 won by 8yo, a Gold cup  runner at single figure odds (in GC). The lazy comment added nothing to the debate, same as the bollox comment really. I was looking for positive input but again i'm disappointed with the attitude on here
Report Steamship April 8, 2017 1:12 PM BST
I have just had a quick look at 2012 Gn 6 8yos, and 2007 GN there were 12 8yo in 07 they finished 2nd 3rd and 5th.
I have already backed Houblon and will back the other 4 for small stakes
Report wondersobright April 8, 2017 7:28 PM BST

try looking at the record of horses with respect to their starting prices and then come back to me on this rather than being disappointed

looking at placed horses with respect to their place SPs will give you a bigger sample than just looking at winners

if you do this you will see that 8yos actually do reasonably well in the national and 8 is not too young as you suggested 8yo winner and the 4th home as well (albeit from an increased representation this year)
Report wondersobright April 8, 2017 7:30 PM BST
good for you steamship, putting in a little work on the placed horses Happy
Report contrary45 April 15, 2017 1:19 PM BST
ah a positive comment wondersobright. My reply using conventional language. Thank you for the idea and it would appear to be an avenue worth investigating if one has the time but I will not be getting back to you. Ill stick with the older horses who will win or be placed in their turn in the years ahead. I thought the winner put in a superb run and was well deserving of its win.
Report wondersobright April 15, 2017 9:53 PM BST
Thank you for the idea and it would appear to be an avenue worth investigating if one has the time but I will not be getting back to you

lol, ignorance is bliss I see

if you continue to make statements that amount to total nonsense then expect to be pulled up for it

prior to this year's renewal, since 2009 when place SPs were available, 48 8yos competed achieving 5 places
betfair expectation for these 48 horses was 4.38 places so they achieved 14% more places compared to market expectation
nothing statistically significant in these figures at all but equally it is tosh to suggest 8 is too young

and lo and behold, 2 more pop up in 2017 and you've still learnt nothing!!

that tells me all I need to know about you as a punter
Report contrary45 April 26, 2017 3:51 PM BST
wondersobright It appears that you have had the time to research and evaluate the record of 8yos in the GN. Well done with a clear and concise conclusion at the end of what must have been time consuming effort. Nothing statistically significant sums it up. I cant understand though why good manners go out the window. I know my statement made me a hostage to fortune and on reflection almost guaranteed an 8yo winner but there is no need at all for your rude attitude. This is a forum for discussion and based on the last 10 years before the 17 race,it was 90% correct (therefore 10% nonsense) and put forward to trigger sensible discussions not idiotic statements like 'you've learnt nothing.'
Report contrary45 April 27, 2017 12:47 PM BST
I seem to have rattled a cage or 2 but the age filter was only a suggestion to be applied to qualifiers from your key race list which if I may say is a good solid piece of research. My idea was to minimise the qualifiers as avoiding losers(especially 1st fence fallers) is just as important as finding winners. I look forward to next years GN and reading your update. Good luck
Report Steamship January 14, 2018 1:19 AM GMT
Having backed Cogry for yesterdays Classic Chase at Warwick I had a little look at how the placed horses from the previous seasons Nationals had got on

Native River 2 runs 1 win 11/10
Raz De Maree 8 runs 1 win 16/1
Houblon Des  7 runs 1 win  5/2

Vicente 2 runs 0 win
Cogry   3 runs 1 win 13/2
Benbens 5 runs 1 win 14/1

Our Duke  1 run 0 win
Bless The Wings 4 runs 1 win 12/1
Abolitionist 1 run 0 win

About 25 points profit
Report The Dragon January 29, 2018 8:49 PM GMT
the prices are the standout
Report contrary45 February 3, 2018 12:32 PM GMT
good stuff steamship
Report Steamship February 15, 2018 9:39 PM GMT
This years qualifiers going down to 10st

Vicente 10-10 33/1
Can win it on a going day

Seeyouatmidnight 10-8 33/1
Interesting to see how is comeback run goes he is a class horse

Raz De Maree 10-5 50/1
Probably needs a bog

Abolitionist 10-4 33/1
Bought for the race

Houblon Des Obeaux 10-3 100/1
My choice last year finished 10th

Bless The Wings 10-2 50/1
Cross country horses can go well in National I could see this being placed

Final Nudge 10-2 50/1
Very interesting if he can go closed in his prep race

Thunder And Roses 10-1 66/1
In and out performer

Horses that have run ok in the Nationals
Noble Endeavour
Vyta Du Roc
Caroles Destrier
Baie Des Iles
Vintage Clouds
Report Mully March 3, 2018 11:18 AM GMT
Steamship- a man after my own heart. This is the exact same process I have been using in recent years, especially since the modifications in 2012.
Report contrary45 March 19, 2018 4:48 PM GMT
yep solid stuff. Backed Vintage Clouds at the Festival. Looked one pace in the ground at 3i/4 miles Maybe better ground + further could do the trick 65-1 at the mo
Report contrary45 March 19, 2018 4:51 PM GMT
ned a few out no 75 at the moment
Report jumper3 April 13, 2018 11:26 AM BST
Putting these back to the top. Like others, it is the bases of my selection process for the race.

In no particular order for me, I have it down to seven, although the final 2 probably discarded as they haven't either strictly won a chase at 3m+, another criteria of mine. They have both won at 2m7f though.

Final Nudge
Total Recall
Vieux Lion Rouge

Double Ross
Report jumper3 April 13, 2018 12:15 PM BST
Adding Thunder and Roses now as he too fits the criteria.
Report Steamship April 13, 2018 9:13 PM BST
Here we are then the qualifiers in my preference are

Bless The Wings
Houblon Des Obeaux
Final Nudge
Raz De Maree
Thunder And Roses
I will be doing these each way already done Seeyouatmidnight at 33/1 and for me he is head and shoulders above the others.

The funny thing about this system is looking back at previous winners they look fairly easy to pick out whereas apart from Seeyouatmidnight I would not really fancy the others.
Lets hope it's a good day and all come back safe. Good luck all.
Report sewter lives again April 13, 2018 10:12 PM BST
Seeyouatmidnight has some excellent form but there is still a big question mark over his preparation.

A big panic to get him qualified obviously not ideal. However, if he is ready then he has undoubtedly got the ability to run a big race.
Has form on heavy ground and some of his novice form on was very good.
Report jumper3 April 14, 2018 9:57 AM BST

I owe you a debt of gratitude. For some inexplicable reason I also had Houblon Des Obeaux in my list but it must have got left off in the transfer here and thus my bets made yesterday AM. Just added it in now. Will be amusing if it gets us a return. Cheers.
Report Steamship April 14, 2018 3:59 PM BST
It owes me from last year
Report wondersobright April 14, 2018 5:40 PM BST
bless the wings frames up
Report casemoney April 14, 2018 5:41 PM BST
Winner had won over 4 miles so not a total Fail.
Report wondersobright April 14, 2018 7:34 PM BST

Apr 15, 2017 -- 3:53PM, wondersobright wrote:

Thank you for the idea and it would appear to be an avenue worth investigating if one has the time but I will not be getting back to youlol, ignorance is bliss I seeif you continue to make statements that amount to total nonsense then expect to be pulled up for itprior to this year's renewal, since 2009 when place SPs were available, 48 8yos competed achieving 5 placesbetfair expectation for these 48 horses was 4.38 places so they achieved 14% more places compared to market expectationnothing statistically significant in these figures at all but equally it is tosh to suggest 8 is too youngand lo and behold, 2 more pop up in 2017 and you've still learnt nothing!!that tells me all I need to know about you as a punter

another 8yo winner & anibale fly 8yo in 4th
also "too old" 13yo bless the wings in 3rd
a bad year for lazy age trends bs merchants

Report Steamship April 14, 2018 10:50 PM BST
Well we got one placed this year at 40/1s/p.

Roll on next week for some of next years qualifiers
Report contrary45 April 15, 2018 1:03 PM BST
wondersobright, lighten up no need for such an unpleasant attitude. I see this as a bit of fun. Steamship set up a useful thread, I suggested a less than useful tweak which has made me a hostage to fortune and we all move on. Apologies to one and all especially Steamship, for introducing a topic that clearly triggers such an emotional response. Perhaps some help needed with attitude? get out more
Report Steamship April 15, 2018 4:01 PM BST
No need to apologise to me hope you have enjoyed taking part in the thread. It's all about debate
Report Steamship April 24, 2018 12:15 AM BST
3 to add for next year
Joe Farrell
Vintage Clouds

See you in December
Report old applejack May 2, 2018 11:47 AM BST
Report Steamship October 27, 2018 2:14 PM BST
Cogry finishes 2nd at 7/1 Cheltenham
Report Steamship April 4, 2019 2:24 PM BST
2019 Runners

2nd in last seasons Scots. At the current prices 50/1 it looks the best value bet. Just needs to jump better

Ramses De Teilee
2nd in Welsh Grey 7year olds don't win this race but not many will have the ability that this one has

Vintage Clouds
3rd in Scots. Shortest price of the 6  got the right owner 12/1 a bit short

General Principle
1st Irish I don' know what to think of this one

Bless The Wings
2nd Iris 2017 will probably get round could get a place again

Joe Farrell
1st last years Scots ran well 2 weeks ago but I'm not a big fan of the stable and price has come in too much.

I will be backing all of them and doing reverse forecasts on the six for hopefully a life changing win.

If I had to pick one it would be Ramses De Tailee.

Good luck all.
Report Bindaree April 4, 2019 9:56 PM BST
Double Shuffle was a 7 yr old and was supposedly 10lbs well in but pulled up. Baie Des Iles was another last year that seemed to have everything in it's favour but flopped. Evidence seems to suggest that the GN is too big a test for younger horses. That may change sometime but the stats seem to be against it.
Report Steamship April 4, 2020 4:37 PM BST
May as well re visit this for the virtual GN. Nothing else to do.

Elegant Escape
Yala Enki
Burrows Saint
Vintage Clouds
Acapella Bourgois
Potters Corner
Ramses De Teillee

Report Taxiex April 4, 2020 6:28 PM BST
Burrows Saint will be interesting me a lot more next year than this year. Especially if they manage to get the handicap mark down.
Report Steamship February 18, 2021 12:56 PM GMT
2021 Entries

Yala Enki        11-3
Ballyoptic       11-1
Burrows Saint   10-13
Accapella Burgois 10-12
Takingrisks      10-7
Potters Corner   10-6
Cloth Cap        10-5
Secret Reprieve  10-1
Report The Dragon March 3, 2021 6:08 PM GMT
thanks steamship great thread and will look at those posted closley
Report The Dragon March 3, 2021 6:09 PM GMT
should have addd already backed potters corner a good few weeks ago ante post
Report casemoney March 6, 2021 2:54 PM GMT
Cap beginning to look thrown in at the weights
Report The Dragon March 7, 2021 4:04 PM GMT
6/1 antepost currently  that is very short
Report sixtwosix March 7, 2021 4:19 PM GMT
6/1 because there is very little alternative in the field. Kimberlite Candy (needs to improve) , Bristol De Mai(needs to carry weight) , Secret Reprieve (needs to run and get in) , Easyland(must go back to last seasons form) , Magic Of Light(only one proven , the alternative) , Burrows Saint(won't jump the fences)  ......other 83 declared cant win .Grin
Report The Dragon March 9, 2021 7:03 PM GMT
done and dusted thenWink
Report casemoney March 21, 2021 5:21 PM GMT
Will Bristol run ?
Report The Dragon March 21, 2021 6:33 PM GMT
if it does cant see it winning
Report Steamship April 9, 2021 11:07 PM BST
Here we go then and according to the odds they system has a great chance with the first 2 in the betting add to that Takingrisks tipped by Spotlight. I will be having small stakes on all 7. In order of my preference and based on what I see as value

1 Acapella Bourgois
2 Takingrisks
3 Burrows Saint
4 Yala Enki
5 Cloth Cap
6 Potters Corner
7 Ballyoptic

Away from the system my heart is with Definitly Red I have been lucky to see this horse at his yard and I have always had a soft spot for him
I think we could be in for a shock and i will go for Minellacelebration currently 110 on here.
Enjoy the race and lets hope all come back safe
Report dukeofpuke April 10, 2021 1:52 AM BST
Grand National: Fantasy Pick 5

Free to play
Report dukeofpuke April 10, 2021 10:41 PM BST

1 Acapella Bourgois - 13th 20-1
2 Takingrisks - pulled up before 17th 14-1
3 Burrows Saint - 4th 9-1
4 Yala Enki - unseated rider 20th 40-1
5 Cloth Cap - pulled up before 3 out 11-2
6 Potters Corner - pulled up before 22nd 22-1
7 Ballyoptic - refused 21st 66-1
Report Steamship April 7, 2022 1:59 PM BST
Here we go then for the 2022 edition

Run Wild Fred 2nd Irish Nat 2021

Burrows Saint won Irish Nat 2019

Enjoy Dallen    3rd Irish Nat 2021

Dingo Dollar 2nd Scots Nat 2021

Freewheelin Dylan won Irish Nat 2021

Mighty Thunder won Scots Nat 2021

Cloth Cap       3rd Scots Nat 2019

Just the 7 this year unless I have missed some. Good luck lets hope all return safe.
Report The Dragon April 7, 2022 4:00 PM BST
great stuff steamship

do you think thee is much corelation between the 3 nationals
Report Steamship April 7, 2022 4:50 PM BST
Only in that they should be reasonably ok with the big field and distance. Four years without a winner but still well in profit.
Report Steamship April 13, 2023 12:21 PM BST
2023 runners

The Big Dog 2nd Welsh 22
Gaillard Du Mesnil 3rd Irish 22
The Big Breakaway  3rd Welsh 22
Enjoy D'Allen   3rd Irish 21

I think that's it, you could throw in Velvet Elvis 6th in last years Irish if you want another go he is only a young horse.
Good luck with your bets lets hope all come home safe.
Report strontium April 15, 2023 10:56 AM BST
Thank you Steamship, this is a great thread. The last time I want was the day Auroras Encore won. The place was dead silent. Odd that he went off at such a massive price really, because the Scottish National showed he stayed well, and he also loved the (good) ground that day.
Report irishone April 16, 2023 2:59 PM BST
? Ignorance is bliss
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