Grand National
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Anyone else out there fancy this one or am I on my tod here?
Managed to get what I wanted matched at 75 on here this morning and got a bit at 15.5 on the place market too. Just feel at that price he is worth a play.
POSITIVES
Has 14 chase starts so he doesn't lack on experience of jumping fences
9 years old, a decent age
Won a good trial at Sandown worth 85k, the bet365 cup. Also 3rd in an RSA. These runs indicate he has some class
Doesn't lack for stamina. That Sandown race was over 29f and he stayed on strongly surging up the hill
Good or good to soft would be perfect conditions
Looks to have a reasonable handicap mark. If he can reproduce Sandown form he'd look well in.
Looks unexposed over marathon trips
De Boinville is on board. Snubbed Henderson's other runner Triolo D'alene for this one
NEGATIVES
Has had his injury problems in the past
Fell as a novice chaser and unseated before (unseat in the Hennessy wasn't serious)
No form to prove he can likes Aintree or the National fences (in fairness he's never ran there)
Not sure soft ground would be ideal
The Kempton prep run was no better than average, but ran ok considering he'd had over a years lay off. Needs to improve probably the best part of a stone on that but perfectly feasible and not convinced 3 miles at a furious pace round Kempton suits him.
I expect I've missed more negatives with my rose tinted specs on so do point them out. All in all though if anything can negotiate Sandown's railway fences twice in the same race at a fairly decent gallop you can't be a terrible jumper at all. Since the unseat in the 2013 Hennessy he has jumped well in the main. Just hope he can take to it all on the day.
Make of it what you will but there's also this little piece from Henderson that has just surfaced, indicating he may like a national fence and has improved his jumping. 9th paragraph down. Nothing I'd put too much emphasis on but a nice thing to hear.
http://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12427/10226566/gallops-report-nicky-henderson
Will probably back one, maybe two more but will wait for saturday morning. Hadrians Approach is my number 1 though. Good luck if your on.
Managed to get what I wanted matched at 75 on here this morning and got a bit at 15.5 on the place market too. Just feel at that price he is worth a play.
POSITIVES
Has 14 chase starts so he doesn't lack on experience of jumping fences
9 years old, a decent age
Won a good trial at Sandown worth 85k, the bet365 cup. Also 3rd in an RSA. These runs indicate he has some class
Doesn't lack for stamina. That Sandown race was over 29f and he stayed on strongly surging up the hill
Good or good to soft would be perfect conditions
Looks to have a reasonable handicap mark. If he can reproduce Sandown form he'd look well in.
Looks unexposed over marathon trips
De Boinville is on board. Snubbed Henderson's other runner Triolo D'alene for this one
NEGATIVES
Has had his injury problems in the past
Fell as a novice chaser and unseated before (unseat in the Hennessy wasn't serious)
No form to prove he can likes Aintree or the National fences (in fairness he's never ran there)
Not sure soft ground would be ideal
The Kempton prep run was no better than average, but ran ok considering he'd had over a years lay off. Needs to improve probably the best part of a stone on that but perfectly feasible and not convinced 3 miles at a furious pace round Kempton suits him.
I expect I've missed more negatives with my rose tinted specs on so do point them out. All in all though if anything can negotiate Sandown's railway fences twice in the same race at a fairly decent gallop you can't be a terrible jumper at all. Since the unseat in the 2013 Hennessy he has jumped well in the main. Just hope he can take to it all on the day.
Make of it what you will but there's also this little piece from Henderson that has just surfaced, indicating he may like a national fence and has improved his jumping. 9th paragraph down. Nothing I'd put too much emphasis on but a nice thing to hear.
http://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12427/10226566/gallops-report-nicky-henderson
Will probably back one, maybe two more but will wait for saturday morning. Hadrians Approach is my number 1 though. Good luck if your on.
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I quite fancy him and have a little @ 80's.
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I came to the same conclusion early in the week and took the 65/1and 12/1place. They're a number of horses who have shown Group form a few years ago, Sir Des Champ for example. At the odds it's worth taking a chance. It's the National and things happen. Intuition is always indispensable in such a race.
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Enthusiasm has been dampened somewhat with the soft ground but still hopeful of a decent run and hopefully at least a clear round.
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Maybe the Gods were protecting him. He should be fresh for his next run. I had a profitable and enjoyable day. Thank God no horses were injured.
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He's by High Chaparral and I don't think he would have gone in the ground. He's entered in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in a fortnight and is rated 2lbs lower than when he won it in 2014 (as pointed out by the op). Should have a good chance of a repeat if we get some dry weather.
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By the time the downpour came after Douvan won it was clear to see his chance had gone. Even though the ground didn't prove to be his undoing he wouldn't have kept up with those mud larks over 4 miles plus. Turned out to be a repeat of his 2013 Hennessy run.
Off a new mark of 144 he is definitely one to keep an eye on though. Just want the ground to come right and a marathon trip. Potentially Sandown although the forecast isn't looking too good for that. |