Any horses still in National that unlikely to run?

As posted on the other thread, there are several with entries in the Irish National that I think are more likely to go there myself. I'd think one of First Lieutenant or Rule the World, one of Boston Bob or On His Own and Gilgamboa would all be more likely for that race. Probably Turban as well.

Only 3 of note still in Irish National are Living Next Door,Cause of Causes and Bless The Wings. The others are likely to be balloted out of the GN.

I think the Irish National could be too soon for CoC after Cheltenham; if CoC gets in the GN at Aintree its starting sp could be 1/2 of current here, and great chance if so I think.

Some will be entered for The Topham I expect.

Boston Bob and On His Own both had jockeys announced for them yesterday so both will run.

Ah right, fair enough!

Ruby on Bob
Cooper on Sir Des Champs
Patrick Mullins on On His Own
Ballycasey no jockey yet

Turban likely to go for the Topham.

When was the last time you saw Ruby on a last time out Mullins winner priced at 33s? Probably never happened (nearest I can think was Briar Hill who won the Cheltenham Bumper at 25s and I still can't work out how that happened).

I was pretty surprised that BB and SdS have had jockeys announced, seems like BoB has been entered last couple of years only to be a predictable scratch, Ruby will have to ride him differently than normal where he makes Don Poli look like he was in close attention at the GC

So only Turban of top 40 a near certain non runner.

Living Next Door running in the Irish National today.

roger the butler...was at a preview evening and apparently Briar hill was put on the truck to Cheltenham by mistake as was not going to be declared,another millins horse did not travel well and the rest is history!(why he rode it not sure assume other horse was a wyllie one so he honoured it maybe?.)

Would be interesting to know if you ever find out.

Turban, Spring Heeled and Living Next Door all seem non runners

Katkeau and Third Intention possibly

what are the chances of Cause of Causes getting in? I'm doubtful at this stage, but if it does get in then a massive chance

I would say not a prayer of Causes getting a run.

Potential absentees above Cause Of Causes (57) could be Carlingford Lough, Roi Du Me, Gilgamboa, Spring Heeled, Katkeau and Living Next Door at the moment simply for the reasons of same ownership/trainer/ran/betting sp - six in total. hence, another 11 needed which could be whittled down further from the multiple entries by the same owner/trainer eg Gigginstown/WPM/Elliot/Wylie/Nichols/F O'brien, another possible six at least, plus those also-rans just recently ie 3 weeks - I'd think odds of 4/5 (run) and 5/4 (miss) the Grand National.

Nichols and Mullins will run all they can because if they win then trainer title is won.

I do realise: Nichols and WPM (5 each) and Pipe 4 - I'd expect at least 2 each from Nichols, WPM and Pipe to be scratched = 6.

Unless JP has been on the phone to other owners and knows something we don't.

I had thought Nicholls planned to run 6:- S.C., W.C****.,B.T.,R.C. AND UNIONISTE

Dont know whats up with JUST A PAR abreviated to ****.

I mean S.C. could be silly cun#!

Carlingford Lough, Turban, Spring Heeled and Living Next Door all seem non runners.

Triolo taking a walk in the market - just matched at 75.

O'Faolians Boy, is he a definite runner so soon after his exertion in the Gold Cup? Another 2 iffy ones (to me) are Just A Par and Black Thunder - max 29f/dodgy jumpers - both Nichols.

Ms Curtis quoted in RP yesterday as saying she's trying to get Paul Townend for the ride on OFB so safe to assume he's a runner - I quite like his chances personlly, ran well for a long way in the Gold Cup and profile not dissimilar to Many Clouds going into last year's race.

S T-D quoted in his column yday as saying Nicholls plans to run 6 - SC, Unioniste, Just A Par, BT, Wonderful Charm (Sam's ride) and Rocky Creek.

Black Thunder in Aintree sale on Thurs apparently so will have new owner come National day.

JP will buy that Cause of Causes is going to get in.

JP is already on the case: he's already rerouting Carlingford Lough  and Gilgamboa if market is any guide. Maybe his mates at Gigginstown could be of help too; Ballynagour (Pipe) is another iffy one to me.

Apr 3, 2016 -- 11:43AM, jasey wrote:

JP will buy that Cause of Causes is going to get in.

That plan won't work - final decs for National are Thurs am and sale is Thurs 6pm.

Unless Cause of Causes is first reserve in which case JP can buy Black Thunder after 6pm Thurs and declare him a non runner before 1pm Friday

Roi Du Mee listed as Doubtful runner on Racing Post. Carlingford Lough, Turban, Spring Heeled and Living Next Door all seem non runners. 5 certain non runners

My guess is that we are down to Knock Hand.

Third Intention also now listed as doubtful runner

If you go by the market and ''doubtful'' runners on the entries page, then it looks very much like there's 7 to come out yet. Carlingford Lough, Third Intention, Gilgamboa, Turban, Living Next Door, Spring Heeled and Katkeau.

That would put The Romford Pele in at number 40. Would be very surprised if he didn't get a run. Someone somewhere on here said that Knock House/Bishops Road will be the cut off point. I think that looks about spot on. There'd need to be one or two more on top of those pretty likely 7 though to come out.

There might not be any truth behind it but it may be a possibility that Triolo D'Alene has gone for a walk due to jockey bookings. Henderson has just the two entered and his main jockey De Boinville is on Hadrians Approach.

Hadrians Approach is one I've kept an eye on and am a fan of his. A live outsider me thinks, as are many.

I have topped up my bet on Bishops Road as now seems to have good chance of creeping in at the bottem

Just noticed Mullins paid £1100 to declare Turban at last forfeit stage only to say the next day would not be running in National but would run in Topham. I know racehorse owners are rich but to throw away £1100 like that seems strange

i think as many as 9 will come out today

Ballycasey is very weak in the market, another probable not runner.

I would imagine some of those at bottom of handicap will come out too as several of these have run recently and others engaged in Topham - might be down to around 80 left

Only 9 horses taken out.

Carlingford Lough, Third Intention, Roi Du Mee, Turban, Living Next Door, Spring Heeled, Katkeau, Golden Chieftain & Godsmejudge

Does Bishops Road still need one more then? I think he is on the bubble position right now, only 7 of those horses were in front of him?

Think he's just outside.  All horses 10-04 now are in and rest are waiting.

Is there a point when there becomes only 4 reserves? If so, when?

Thursday i think

Cheers Fallen.

The final field of 40, plus four reserves, will be known shortly after 10.00am on Thursday, April 7.

Who else are we likely to lose on Thursday- can't be many now?

There were no further withdrawals from this stage last year, so I'd expect a couple out at most.

Which horse will be the first reserve ?

Ground being soft will kill a few

thought we might lose Gilgamboa or Pendra although cause of causes has no chance of getting in now so maybe not. Katenko also has virtually no chance but he'll probably be left in, how he is still OR 147 is beyond me

As you say Katenko has probably no chance , but Venetia said a month or two ago that he is the one horse  she would love to get in the race , so I guess they were just happy he got round LTO .

Can't see it being genuinely soft Dyno... few showers forecast but bit of warmth. Reckon it will be good to soft and perfect for most myself.

Its been very wet the last week and not stopped raining all day. Will be good to soft at best.

Zazu. AS per the other thread... where are you? In the River Mersey

ROTFL!!
Thought was hot where Zazu was!No rain on The african plains.

revised list in case of any NRs

41) BISHOPS ROAD (IRE) 8-10-03 Alan Halsall Kerry Lee
42) KNOCK HOUSE (IRE) 7-10-03 Tim Radford Mick Channon
43) PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE) 9-10-02 ISL Recruitment Fergal O'Brien
44) MAGGIO (FR) 11-10-02 Douglas Pryde/James Beaumont Patrick Griffin IRE
45) PRESENT VIEW 8-10-02 Sir Chips Keswick Jamie Snowden
46) PINEAU DE RE (FR) 13-10-02 John Provan Dr Richard Newland
47) HIGHLAND LODGE (IRE) 10-10-02 Bowes Lodge Stables James Moffatt
48) ALVARADO (IRE) 11-10-02 William & Angela Rucker Fergal O'Brien
49) CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA) 8-10-01 J P McManus Gordon Elliott

Pendra could still come out but not sure of any others

The 2014 winner Pineau De Re needs six late withdrawals to make the cut for Saturday's Grand National at Aintree.

A final order of elimination for the £1m race, which has a maximum of 40 runners, was announced on Tuesday.

Lower-rated horses are balloted out, with The Romford Pele currently occupying the number 40 slot.

As it stands Bishops Road (41), Knock House, Perfect Candidate and Maggio (44) will be the four reserves for the race, with Pineau De Re at 46.

In danger of missing the cut
41: Bishops Road, winner of the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February    46: Pineau De Re - Winner of the Grand National two years ago
47: Highland Lodge, winner of the Becher Chase - Aintree's trial over the National fences    48: Alvarado, fourth in the National in 2014 and 2015
The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) has indicated it is open to reviewing the entry system ahead of next year's National.

Pineau De Re was 43rd on the list before revised ratings were applied on Tuesday.

Others in danger of missing out are Becher Chase winner Highland Lodge (47), Alvarado (48) - who has twice finished fourth in the National - and Cheltenham Festival winner Cause Of Causes (49), who was rated about 16-1 joint fifth favourite for the race .

"It's life, I'm afraid. It's like complaining about the weather. It's one of those things, there's nothing we can do about it," said Alvarado's trainer Fergal O'Brien.

Pineau De Re won the National two years ago under jockey Leighton Aspell, who also triumphed last year with Many Clouds for trainer Oliver Sherwood

"It's life, I'm afraid. It's like complaining about the weather. It's one of those things, there's nothing we can do about it," said Alvarado's trainer Fergal O'Brien.

jesus thats a stupid thing to say

I think realistic is more appropriate. Nothing can be done to get a run.

Now The Romford Pele is in, I'm hoping O'faolains Boy will come out and let Bishops Road get in

Cant see that happening rl91. Think they fancy OFB just as much as TRP

Both run

Do you see any others coming out Headmaster?

I'm desperate to find one CCM, but can't!  Think Bishops Road fans' only hope is one of the 40 going off colour....

Does look like all top 40 set to run now. believe only one doubly declared been taken out of alternative engagement.

Grrrrr. Will be sick if Bishop's Road doesnt get in!

Mind you, can't really complain, as The Romford Pele has been my main fancy for months and sneaking in at 40 is a right touch.

Main bet Saint Are but thought Bishops Road and Knock House both good value bets

Black Thunder has drifted to 170 from 90 yesterday.  It's being auctioned tomorrow so new owners could pull it???

Pendra is fairly weak aswell and JP does have quite a few in still, hoping maybe one comes out because of the ground

I wouldn't have thought you'd buy a horse at the National sale who's declared only to pull it out?  Unless you were Kerry Lee maybe?

Pendra and Sir Des Champs could come out.

Actually, re Black Thunder, it appears Mr Waley Cohen may have a ride after all.....so that's another confirmed runner

I'd agree with you there dunlaying they would be my two also.

be very unlucky if didn't get in now, surely one will drop out in the next few days

What is the criteria if both horses on same weight? Who becomes first reserve?  Bishops Road & Knock House, I thought I had seen Knock House higher up the table than Bishops Road in earlier weights lists!

Thanks for that Reg. Have backed Knock House (nrnb), so no loss if not get in but hope we both do.

interesting that Sir Des champs was a doubtful stayer over over 3m 2f in the Gold Cup and yet is still in the national, think normally WM would have taken him out but in this year it seems that both he and PN are throwing as many darts as possible

Sir Deschamps and Ballycasey both have entries in the Topham aswell so decision might be ground dependent.  Market suggest both will run in the National though

All 40 stood their ground

just needed one to come out, no such luck, will be hoping for a last minute withdrawl

Yes. Disappointing. So many social runners left in who cannot really hope to be winners

Which one will be pulled out tomorrow morning? Pendra?