Grand National
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My GN selection.
Was very impressive in the Grimthorpe.
I really like the horses attitude, he travels well, and has a real engine.Jumps well too.
Had taken the 33/1 a week ago ,and have gone in again at 16/1.
Was very impressive in the Grimthorpe.
I really like the horses attitude, he travels well, and has a real engine.Jumps well too.
Had taken the 33/1 a week ago ,and have gone in again at 16/1.
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The only negative, is that PW has tipped it
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looks solid ew maybe the way to go, ground dependent also i would have thought
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Don't bet ew !
Interesting. What ground is best for him do you think ? . He has winning form on Good/Soft ,Soft and Heavy. I know the trainer thinks better than Saturday's ground( soft) would be ideal. But he's such a game,strong travelling sort. He's progressing and would certainly be now carrying more weight in the National if yesterday's performance was taken into account.  |
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12 lb well in according to the handicapper.
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Good luck Facts.
Personally I don't think he has the class or the speed to win the race. There's no strong back form to him and his biggest win was the Grimthorpe but that was a weak race. |
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Thanks Charlie.
I really think he has an excellent chance. weak race or not - all he can do is win - and he's done plenty of winning to date. I love his attitude and the way he races powerfully. |
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Is this a penalty kick?
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I agree that I think he has neither the class nor the speed, but more importantly he doesn't have the experience. Name me a National winner that has only had 8 chase starts (don't think one exists).
That said, if I had a fancy price about something nearly a stone well in I would obviously be excited like those that have that are, and be defending him, but I cannot see him even being in the first 5. |
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Think you're wrong Roger. Hope so !
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Jim McGrath's fancy as well - I think we are done for good!
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Jesus that bloke is the grim reaper,you should all lay off
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Despite being his 1st run over these fences I'd see The Last Samuri disputing favouritism with Many Clouds soon - single figure for sure at least.
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I think you could be right.
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I've been turning the race over in my mind the last few days and he was the last one I had a good look at. He's not much bigger than a pit pony and he was on and off the bridle during the Grimthorpe so unless it is very soft I'd question whether he can lie up. Not my type when it comes to this race.
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love that last line Reg
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It took Gigginstown another 10 years before winning the Cheltenham Gold again with Don Cossack, and it's about right time Kim Bailey winning the Grand National again, with The Last Samuri - here's hoping!
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Beware the Grimthorpe.
Race is a shocking guide. |
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Thanks but no worries, it's the Grand National not the Gold Cup - a bit of fun, as always!
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TLS was on my National bet even before The Grimthorpe
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Was travelling well until the 12th in the Grimthorpe, Bass had him wider than anything else then the horse fiddled the fence, lost plenty of ground but then travelled up powerfully again.
My take on it was that the leaders went off at a fair clip, and they faded badly. Hard to knock TLS in that race, although i understand the comments about his size, plus he was fiddly at a few. But looks to have a powerful behind with a huge amount of spring with his energy. |
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My other half has a powerful behind but she wouldn't win the Grand National.
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You don't have to be as big as your other half either to win a National.
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Puerile.
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(that was to Facts).
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And to Roger of course
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What's your idea of the winner Roger ?
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I'm keen on Holywell and The Druid's Nephew.
If Highland Lodge got in (he won't probably as is still no.45) I'd have a slight play on him too. |
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You will need better ground for those two selections Roger i feel.
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Holywell ? Interesting. You don't think Jonjo 's Shutthefrontdoor is his main hope ?
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Zen, yes I want it to dry out a bit. Good to soft would be fine. Good would be even better.
Facts, Holywell has been to Cheltenham then Aintree the last three years: 2013 1st at Cheltenham (Pertemps Final) 2nd at Aintree (G1 Liverpool Hurdle) 2014 1st at Cheltenham (G3 handicap chase) 1st at Aintree (G1 Mildmay novices chase) 2015 4th at Cheltenham (G1 Gold Cup) 3rd at Aintree (G1 Betfred Bowl) 2016 2nd at Cheltenham (G3 handicap chase off top weight) Clearly saves his best for the big occasion and is a spring festival horse. I don't like Shutthefrontdoor as I don't like horses that have got round before without being good enough to win. |
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Just to add Roger, Holywell saves his best for when Jonjo puts blinkers on him on decent ground.
Holywell has a massive chance, if he gets his ground. |
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Nah, it has to be The Last Samuri, why? It just has a ring to it when the result is announced on TV after a gruelling tough race. - it will be so apt.
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I would be against The Last Samuri purely because of it's lack of chasing experience.
With only 8 chases, he would need to smash this important stat... Yes he has 4 PTP runs, but only 2 completed and we don't really count the PTP's. As noted he isn't the biggest and i think his jumping is overrated. Many Clouds & Numbersixvalverde had the least chase experience of all the winners of the last 25 years, both had 10 chases prior to their respective GN victories. |
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Quite a few past winners of the Grand National prove you can be small, but still be successful.
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Seagram being the prime example but .........the softer the ground , the more difficult for smaller horses to handle the fences . The word soft already being mentioned in the going would be a big negative for me with this horse.
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Suny Bay wasn't big (stocky would be a good description) but it didn't stop him carrying a big weight round there on bottomless ground
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Suny Bay was not below average in size for chaser. He was a decent size, The Last Samuri is like Dennis Wise. where as Suny Bay was more a Mark Hughes
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Timeform described him as "compact, robust". Not sure how they describe The Last Samuri - I don't buy it any more. Neither will The Last Samuri be carrying 12-0 on heavy ground
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