Grand National
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Running on strong at the finish last year, still has low weight but not seen it being mentioned anywhere
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fancied this last year and got mightily close, just don't know how they can get him stronger in those last few furlongs and so i'll be seeking another angle this year!!
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That's a strange way to look at it lucky22. The race is run over 4m4f and every furlong counts. He went through a couple of fences, including Bechers. He was closing fast at the finish. It's entirely likely that if he ran the exact same race he'd win this year.
It's the Grand National and they're not machines. If you think you have a bit of confidence about a horse being among the places then he should be value to win. A 5f flat handicap would usually have different winners if run multiple times. You can be sure the National would. |
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I think he has a decent chance. Grade 1 winner, loves Aintree and has a great record over the National fences. A closing second last year and this has been the plan since. It was reported that he came out of last year's race in great shape too - if I remember right Tom said he only lost the weight that an average hurdler would. Won very well since the weights came out and Tom reported that he wasn't yet at his best. He also reckons he knows the horse better this year.
Decent chance at the price though the 33s before his win was more appealing. It's the Grand National and like them all he needs a trouble free round. |
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Some very valid points you make there PJay and I agree with most of it.
I should elaborate a bit more, I can see him winning but what I do each year is run my own stats, find one or two that fit the profile I'm looking for, and then start backing them at healthy odds. Saint Are was in there last year and I backed him accordingly. This year I am doing the same again but am looking for one that may be a bit more under the radar!! |
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Everytime I rewatch the race I'm more confident
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Very much a forgotten horse of the race Many Clouds only beat him 1 3/4 lengths last year and he is 2lb better off this year. Effectively giving them equal chances. His win last time out should means he moves up to number 48 in the list and makes a run pretty certain. Clearly the value selection at general 25-1 compared to 8 or 9 to 1 Many Clouds.
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Also racing post ratings for his last win was 4lb higher than for his National 2nd(which matched his highest rating of his career which was at Aintree festival 2012) suggesting an improved horse this year. Many Clouds did not have to run up to his National rating to win a race he should have won last time out.
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Now up to 41 in list looks all set for run
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Has had breathing op before last run and trainer thinks he is a far better horse for it
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I don't think he can win but cracking place bet and going in my combination tricast.
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jasey you think he will be in 1st 3 but can't win? Why?
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Third pop at it m8 puts me off.
When I say place I mean first 5 is what I am looking at. |
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Good second last year , nowhere near 9th the year before ....don't see it being 3rd time lucky myself.
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Into 16/1 generally today.
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I wouldn't be put off at all by the fact that he's having his 3rd run in the race, a close 2nd last year and the 2lb pull in the weights with Many Clouds this year would have been enough to finish ahead last year. When the horse ran 3 years ago he was rated 142 and carried 10st 8, this year he's rated 150 and is carrying 10st 5. Also was a 7 y/o that time and they have a dreadful record in the race. This year the horse has a lovely weight, comes here in great form, is the optimum age and has the experience over the GN fences. What's not to like about his chances? I've been backing at 25/1 but I still think 20/1 is great value
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I'm quite happy to stick with my theory that the winner will be completing the race for the first time as is the case almost every single year. So will only be looking at debutants and those that have shown an aptitude for the fences but have not yet shown what they can do at the finish. There are loads of Saint Ares in recent years that have run well, looked potential future winners and have not done it. Putting a line through anything that has been round before.
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If a line could be drawn through anything that has been round before and had been unsuccessful that would leave just a handful of those left with potentials/handicapped positive eg Silviniaco Conti (unlikely to stay I reckon), The Last Samuri, Carlingford Lough (if soft), Gallant Oscar and Holywell (moody). I like The Last Samuri despite not having done the distance/Aintree, and Jim McGrath fancying it too.
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You've got to cut the list down somehow with 40 starters, and that has been a reliable place to start over the years. I would be keeping The Druid's Nephew in as a non-completer and am very keen on him. If he'd got round last year I wouldn't be.
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Could be a profitable technique to employ in the Grand National eg State Of Play, never won but repeatedly placed 3x but fell 4th, and Seabass is another; The Druid's Nephew is 1 of 4 of mine against the field too.
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Roger, it's a fair point about debutants having a great record, I just feel as though Saint Are is nailed on to get a place at least (barring any mishap), horses that have run well before very often repeat (Alvarado last year a good example), and it's only a matter of time before one wins. Sometimes trends just come about by chance, there is no good reason why being a debutant should be an advantage (unless a horse has run well in previous years and been given a big weight increase). Horses like Comply or Die and Hedgehunter got hammered by the handicapper and nearly repeated the following year, I think it's worth looking at horses that ran well previously and haven't gone up in the weights
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If the rain comes hes not the same horse imo and he would have won me a fortune if winning last year so I do have a soft spot for the horse.
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The race this year is a better race so chances are Saint Are finds a few to good again.
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The point most people are missing is Saint Are improved on the form of his 2nd in last year's National to win last time out. He is due to go up in handicap 4lb. How many of the previously placed National horses to run in it the next year could say the same.
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One of those is Cause Of Causes, a good chance if making the cut!
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It's his third go at it but crucially only his second for Tom George. He was also third in a Becher in 2014. Before his National runs he won the Listed Handicap Chase at the National meeting in 2012 and won the Gr1 Sefton Novices Hurdle at the National meeting in 2011.
Tom George is in flying form, probably the form of his life. 6 winners from his last 13. Probably more winners in March than he's ever had in a month. Saint Are is a lovely horse to be on at big prices. At the 16/1 now available he's not quite so appealing. There are plenty there with chances. |
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In his racing career, He's never won back to back races.
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Don't think not winning back to back races relevant. Last year won race before National and achieved a then career best performance in National. Winning his last race is certainly not a negative
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Just saying
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Soft ground would be a bigger issue for this horse
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Facts, The Last Samuri has never won three chases in a row.
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Irrelevant
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Just saying.
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I don't think he's ever won a race after 5pm either.
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Nevertheless, there will always be a 1st time, big time!
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Horses unable to win two races on the trot is an old statistic, often used by form readers. But nonetheless, has an element of truth to it, in that some horses can't maintain the form needed to win two on the bounce, or are unable to overcome any penalty.
Surprised posters haven't come across this before. |
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Was only being facetious facts
 Have heard it before, but wouldn't place too much emphasis on it myself. Stats like that in isolation can be a bit misleading Imo. |
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(Unlike the one about only winning the RSA if you have gone novice chasing straight from novice hurdling).
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