Grand National
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Must go well again shirley
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3rd fav at 20/1 today
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Trainer Neil Mulholland - The Druids Nephew (11st)
"He's got 5lb more than last year and I've got to be happy with that. I was hoping the handicapper wouldn't get carried away and give him more than 11 stone considering he only had 10st 9lb last year. "He won at the Cheltenham Festival last year and he looked like running a big race at Aintree. "It's been the plan this year. Last year it was Cheltenham and then we carried on to Aintree, but Aintree is the plan this time. "He will either go for the BetBright Chase at Kempton or the Grimthorpe at Doncaster. If the ground is good we will take our chance at Kempton, if not it will be Doncaster. "It is all about the good ground. It is a long way around there (Aintree) but at least we know he has the ability to be competitive." |
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nice prep run yesterday
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The price has been yo yoing in a tight range recently.
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It was travelling like a dream when taking the lead and starting to go clear , looks to have a big chance.
But they don't always come back and win after falling when going well the year before. A recent example would be On His Own hacking up when falling at Bechers second time and ran much poorer the following year. |
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Based on last years race id much rather be on Soll at 80/1 than The Druids Nephew at 16/1
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no guarantee that soll wont bleed again.
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handicapper surprisingly dropped him 2lb for his run last time out so he's officially 2lb wrong at the weights this year but like I say it's a surprise given the winner went up 12lb and Druid was conceding 6lb !!
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i really like the horses chances, i do worry about the fall as horses that fell in the national have a very iffy record next time in, however from a handicapping perspective think the horse is well treated. I was very pleased with the prep
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I would rather back a horse that fell the previous year than one which completed the previous year.
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Years ago I backed West Tip for the National the year after it fell. I was very naive had only just started betting, and thought if it gets round it's bound to win. I was 18 and had a tenner on. It got round and it won. If only it was as easy as that.
For what it's worth I'll be backing the Druids Nephew. Seemed to be given an easy race last time, and with a bit of luck, must go close. Fingers crossed. |
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Roger The Butler 30 Mar 16 19:06
I would rather back a horse that fell the previous year than one which completed the previous year Why would you do that? Surely predicting how fallen horses would have finished is just an educated guess and the prices are usually artificially low imo |
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A few fallen horses have gone on to win it Hedgehunter and Silver Birch.
Why would you rather back Soll he looks about the worst handicapped horse in the race for me, |
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All the fallen horses who won were prominent at the time they fell, all bar Silver Birch(Chair) fell on the second circuit... ie Hedgehunter, West Tip, Little Polvier..they've done better in the last 30 odd teats than placed horses coming back..off the back of my head i can only remember Amberleigh House and Hallo Dandy winning it after being placed and before that was L'Escargot!!(Red Rum went 11221
unplaced horse dont have a great record..i can only remember Mon Mome winning it |
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I think Amberleigh might have fallen as well
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Little Polvier had both fallen and finished unplaced prior to winning.
The Druid's Nephew has a first rate chance . I think he would have won and won well last year. Looks primed to get recompense this year .......so long as it does not go soft and Goonyella hacks up. |
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Royal Athlete fell as well, backed TDN last season and was sick as a parrot, this year with luck i think it is between TDN and Many Clouds.
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Zazu, as others have pointed out in my absence, horses do tend to come back and win the National after falling in it. Very, very few that have completed before - including those that you would say have run crackers in defeat - then step up to win it. With a few exceptions (I think Mon Mome and Amberleigh House) look through the list of recent(ish) winners and they tend to win at their first completion.
Oscar Time, Big Fella Thanks, State Of Play, etc - have run well and placed again after placing the first time, but they don't improve on the previous years' performances to win it. |
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Very keen on The Druid's Nephew - didn't back him last year but he was top of my list between him capsizing and Many Clouds even crossing the line last year. Have seen nothing to dissuade me for this year, though he has been replaced as my main hope by Holywell, who could be an absolute steal at 16s (see Holywell thread and look at the post I put up showing his Cheltenham/Aintree Festival records - they are ridiculous).
The only issue with putting them in that order is that we don't know if Holywell will take to it - but we know The Druid's Nephew was having a whale of time until he very unluckily tipped up. |
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Here's hoping some of the heavy rain forecast over the next two days misses the track. The better the going the better his chances.
Horse is in great shape and with a bit of luck in running and not too much rain will go very well. Hopefully gaining some compensation for unlucky slither last year, though to win you have to complete the course!! |
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I didnt realise how well he ran in last years race until I was watching the jockey cam footage from Leighton Aspell.
The fact he's fallen last year, is up 9lb and the track's had some rain count against him for me. But gl to all who have him backed at bigger prices. |
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Some food for thought for stats punters.last 10 winners only 1 has run in previous GN but 7 had run at Aintree over hurdles or fences if Timeform is to be believed. Also 7 out of 10 were 10 or 11 y o's.
Of course these stats have Many Clouds running against them this year but if they hold up then it only leaves Silviano C (12-1), Ballynagour(66-1, Sir des Champs(20-1), Boston Bob(28-1), Double Ross(100-1), Gallant Oscar(14-1), Goonyella(20-1) and Katenko(100-1). Of those from last year only Shutthefrontdoor (beaten fav 5th) and Unioniste (fell 5th16-1)are running off lower ratings.Add the stat of 50% carried 11 stone or more then you are left with SC and Ballynagour. Bearing in mind the going this last may be blown away today. Gallant Oscar and Goonyella appeal of the others |
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Meant to add good luck to you all whatever you back
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