grand national 40 runner analysis

LORD WINDERMERE - too much weight for this overrated quirky horse .                        MANY CLOUDS - classy horse but this  young 8 year old has too much weight .                   UNIONISTE -  rip up the stat book if this 7 year old wins carrying this weight .           ROCKY CREEK - every chance last year but faded into 5th , sure to thereabouts again .FIRST LIEUTENANT - classy horse over shorter distances  , looks a non stayer .        BALTHAZAR KING - third try in the National , one great run last year and one shocker . trainer not run him for long time to keep him a fresh horse but looking at past winners profiles i think this is a mistake but  still hard to ignore .    SHUTHEFRONTDOOR - very hard to fancy on his form , his weight , his age and lack of a recent run , however it is the JP Mcmanus  , Jonjo and Mccoy combination .    PINEAU DE RE - very hard to win back to back Nationals especially now as a 12 year old  and last years jockey deserted him this year .                                          BALLYCASEY - 8 year old too young and will not stay  .                                         SPRING HEELED - been laid out for this race and has the form to be involved if it stays the trip , bit of a dark horse and been well backed .                                          REBEL REBELLION - been in very good form over shorter distance but non stayer. DOLATULO - too young and unproven over trip .                                                    MON PARRAIN - form not good enough but ridden by very good young jockey .    CARLITO BRIGANTE -  not good enough in this grade of race .                            NIGHT IN MILAN -  fancied by many but not by me . i do not think he will stay at all RUBI LIGHT - no chance  of winning , will not stay .                                               THE DRUIDS NEPHEW - was a good winner at Cheltenham but only an 8 year old and will be running a mile further than it has ever raced . too short in the betting considering quite possible a non stayer .                                                             CAUSE OF CAUSES -  could never back a 7 year , the stats do not lie .                  GODSMEJUDGE - Has the form to win it , 4 high class efforts in class 1 company on his CV , however in three runs this year has shown no spark . but he has always ran well in April  so no shock to see him bounce back here .                                 
AL CO- Scottish National winner a big player here , had good prep run over hurdles MONBEG DUDE - Very one paced horse . only a chance if ground got very heavy .  CORRIN WOOD - only an 8 year old with poor form and looks non  stayer .             THE RAINBOW HUNTER - U/R in last two Nationals and a doubtful stayer .             SAINT  ARE - beaten a distance in a weaker looking 2013 National -  been in good form but i  big doubts he stays 4 1/2 miles .                                                        ACROSS THE BAY - has been hampered by loose horses in the last two grand nationals while running a good race   , but very hard to fancy on form .               TRANQUAIL SEA -  At 13 is too old  to compete  at this level .                               OSCAR TIME - even older at 14 but a grand old servant  and has very good jockey . .BOB FORD - too young and has poor form .                                                     SUPER DUTY -  not won a race over 3 miles - very doubtful stayer .                     WYCK HILL - capable but  unreliable  animal , could surprise if takes to the fences . GAS LINE BOY - poor jumper takes big step up in class  .                                    CHANCE DU ROY - just a SH behind Rocky Creek in last years race yet seems to have been dismissed by most . has ran two good prep races and has definite place claims at least .                                                                                                   PORTRAIT KING - has been in good form apart from below par effort in Eider chase .Will stay the trip no problem and has a  could go well at around 66-1                     OWEGA STAR - too young and never won over 3 miles , non stayer .                    RIVER CHOICE - how on earth did this get in the national- hate the ground and trip COURT BY SURPRISE - long absence to overcome but not totally dismissed .  ALVARADO - quite possible the strongest stayer in the race , looked all over the winner last year two out before he hit a flat spot and lost position only to run on like a train to grab 4th place . good chance jockey will notch up another top 4 finish SOLL - fancied by many but not by me . done well since he switched to D . PIPE    but he failed to stay in the 2013 National  and he has ran in five class 1 chase races and  has ran terrible in all of them suggesting not up to this class .               ELY BROWN - this novice has only ran in four chases  , out of his depth .               ROYALE KNIGHT . the bottom weighty will stay the trip no problem , has won on every type of going and is in good form , normally carries huge weight in much lower class of race . quite interesting off 10-02 as he used to carrying 11-10 .