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Grand National
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Not the full blown trends analysis, as I'm all used up after Cheltenham, but and view Aintree as something as an afterthought, but here's my quick and dirty methodology for whittling down the field.
Step 1
Look for horses to have won at three and a half miles plus - indicates they are likely to have stamina to be able to cope with the extreme trip of the Grand National.
I have only gone down to number 50 in the handicap, and this leaves a shortlist of:
Balthazar King
Shutthefrontdoor
Pineau de Re
Cause of Causes
Godsmejudge
Al Co
Monbeg Dude
Across The Bay
Bob Ford
Wyck Hill
Gas Line Boy
Portrait King
Alvarado
Royale Knight
Raz De Maree
Goonyella
Note that Alvarado has won at a trip marginally shorter than that but at a stiff track like Cheltenham, so makes the cut.
Step 2 - the more mature type of horse ususlly wins the day here, so I'm prepared to rule out horses under 9 and the old duffers older than 11. That whittles the field down to:
Balthazar King
Godsmejudge
Al Co
Monbeg Dude
Across The Bay
Wyck Hill
Gas Line Boy
Portrait King
Alvarado
Royale Knight
Raz De Maree
Step 3 - I'm going to overlook horses that haven't had a recent run, as I think it will be asking a lot to get a horse to win this off either a very light campaign or a long layoff. This means goodbye to Balthazar King (off for a long time), Wyck Hill (one run and one fall) and Alvarado (one run only), leaving:
Godsmejudge
Al Co
Monbeg Dude
Across The Bay
Gas Line Boy
Portrait King
Royale Knight
Raz De Maree
Step 4 - I'd like to see some evidence of recent form e.g. top 5 finish last time out or a placed effort on one of last three runs. This would appear to rule out Godsmejudge and Across the Bay, leaving a select shortlist of:
Al Co @ 30
Monbeg Dude @ 46
Gas Line Boy @ 140
Portrait King @ 85
Royale Knight @ 34
Raz De Maree @ 75 (would need a few to come out to get a run)
Good luck all!
Step 1
Look for horses to have won at three and a half miles plus - indicates they are likely to have stamina to be able to cope with the extreme trip of the Grand National.
I have only gone down to number 50 in the handicap, and this leaves a shortlist of:
Balthazar King
Shutthefrontdoor
Pineau de Re
Cause of Causes
Godsmejudge
Al Co
Monbeg Dude
Across The Bay
Bob Ford
Wyck Hill
Gas Line Boy
Portrait King
Alvarado
Royale Knight
Raz De Maree
Goonyella
Note that Alvarado has won at a trip marginally shorter than that but at a stiff track like Cheltenham, so makes the cut.
Step 2 - the more mature type of horse ususlly wins the day here, so I'm prepared to rule out horses under 9 and the old duffers older than 11. That whittles the field down to:
Balthazar King
Godsmejudge
Al Co
Monbeg Dude
Across The Bay
Wyck Hill
Gas Line Boy
Portrait King
Alvarado
Royale Knight
Raz De Maree
Step 3 - I'm going to overlook horses that haven't had a recent run, as I think it will be asking a lot to get a horse to win this off either a very light campaign or a long layoff. This means goodbye to Balthazar King (off for a long time), Wyck Hill (one run and one fall) and Alvarado (one run only), leaving:
Godsmejudge
Al Co
Monbeg Dude
Across The Bay
Gas Line Boy
Portrait King
Royale Knight
Raz De Maree
Step 4 - I'd like to see some evidence of recent form e.g. top 5 finish last time out or a placed effort on one of last three runs. This would appear to rule out Godsmejudge and Across the Bay, leaving a select shortlist of:
Al Co @ 30
Monbeg Dude @ 46
Gas Line Boy @ 140
Portrait King @ 85
Royale Knight @ 34
Raz De Maree @ 75 (would need a few to come out to get a run)
Good luck all!
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Step 2, 3 and 4 are ok. However, Step 1 would run out all winners between 2009 and 2013.
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That's why it's quick and dirty.
 This year is the year of the stayer! |
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A select shortlist ?
 Hardly ! |
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Am with DHB. Step 1 is not ok and could easily cost you the winner. Not solid at all.
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Al Co is my strong fancy (for what it's worth), but it appears I'm already doomed to failure. Maybe this should be re-titled 'Six to Lay'.
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I have been running along this line of reasoning too Joci... nothing appears good enough to win it so any rag can be considered lol!
Whilst I have backed Al Co and Royale Knight (expecting decent ground) I am starting to think Monbeg Dude on 142 is a huge price as he blundered his chance away when fancied last year, but even his last couple of runs doesn't make me confident so I just keep going round in circles. |
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lol 144
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JOCI Club 08 Apr 15 06:19
Al Co is my strong fancy (for what it's worth), but it appears I'm already doomed to failure. Maybe this should be re-titled 'Six to Lay'. Barry Rico has already beaten you to it ! |
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With Raz De Maree not making the cut I've added Cause of Causes to the list. The horse has made a monkey of my trends analysis the last two Cheltenham Festivals. He looked like he could have gone around again in the 4 miler this year, and I'm going to be kicking myself if he went unbacked, then he crept into contention 2 out....... I know it's defying the age trend, but sometimes you have to go with your eye.
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Each way pick up on Monbeg Dude.
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