Stats and Trends

Comparisons with past results useless. Totally different race nowadays.

not sure how you can say that Facts .   The Grand National is the best race for stats and trends . of the last 25  runnings of the National i have had the winner in my list 21 times . what i do is go down the list of runners using the widely available stats and trends until i have narrowed it down to ten horses . i then look at the form very closely and  take into account the jockeys and trainers and  then when the full field is confirmed i narrow my ten down to four horses and then back them each way and do forecasts and tricasts . the four times i never had the winner on my first list of ten was  when Dont Push It  and Neptune Collonges won due to weight they carried and Party Politics and Bindaree were too young . the only thing i can imagine you mean when you say its a totally different race nowadays is cos the fences have been made bit easier to jump . well that has no influence on the stats or trends i use whatsoever .

OP - you might want to look here

http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/aintree-grand-national-trends-2015-1426468553

Barry. Yep I mean the fences. It's not the uniques test it used to be.

It maybe prove to be more unique and some cast iron stats maybe being made.Yes the fences are a joke but Speed is a must now as well as huge stamina.

never thought of Auroras Encore having much speed  Jasey

Auroras is a good example won at 2miles.

last years winner won 2m hurdle and bumper also 18f chase win.

RED RUM   won over 7 furlongs   . this is not a new stat

won over 5f barry, well a dead heat!!

Just pointing out AE a speed horse.Using Red Rum is silly because he was a trend smasher.

does not matter in the slightest what the horse has performed like under 3 miles in my opinion . Every National winner  since 1971  won a chase over 3 miles .   how many of them won a chase at 2 miles  i would not know but hazard a guess of very few . has and never be important fact in picking a national winner

2m to 2m4 i reckon last 15 winners have

Nearly every horse runs over 2 miles or 2 miles 4 furlongs starting their career . only a handful go on to be out and out stayers good enough to win a Grand National

"Six out of every four people don't understand statistics"

I do like this kind of retro-fit statistical analysis. barry's post below illustrates this perfectly. "I dont know but it can't be important" I paraphrase of course but - It could be that if the very few National RUNNERS that won at 2m's and then won at 3m's had a disproportionately high strike rate, so it might be an important indicator.  Re that 3m stat - is that exactly 3m or is it 3m+   Given that the majority of National runners have run and won at 3m+, an extended run of success (44 years) would not be that unusual.

In simple terms, the use of "incidence" without occurence in the sample is pretty stupid.  After all, and to take an extreme example, I reckon that backing a 4 year old is statistically a pretty play for the Triumph Hurdle.

15/22 won a 16f-20f chase. One won a 21f chase. Three others finished second in a 16f-20f chase. Ones who didn't were Silver Birch, Numbersixvalverde (second at 22f) and Royal Athlete. Silver Birch won a 20f hurdle but never ran in any chase below 3m. Numbersixvalverde won a 18f hurdle. Royal Athlete won a 16f hurdle and never ran in a chase below 3m.

Just to add that 6/15 won a chase at 16f-17f.

Last five winners 10 or 11 years of age.....not sure what to make of that one.

Good stuff DHB - To follow up my incidence/occurrence point below, what would be interesting to see would be the "strike rate" for

Group 1 - Runners that had won over 2 - 2.5 miles AND also won over 3m+    vs
Group 2 - Runners that had just won over 3m+ AND not at lesser distances.

Lot of work though