Grand National
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Been wrapped up in cotton wool so I am told
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Any stats people know the last horse to win the National on first run for 5 months? Surely you have to be fit as a flea to win it and that means a recent run to put you spot on. For that reason he, and Shutthefrontdoor, are crossed straight off the list.
Has anything won it without a prep run? |
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Wouldn't cross BK off your list too quickly. Best fresh, form in the book and trained by the master. How many signals do you want?
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Some evidence of horses winning the national after a 5 month break would be the signal I would want.
I have just gone back 25 years and the longest lay off for a National winner is a run in February. Not having it at all that anything can win having been off since November. That's two of the first three in the betting that I just don't believe can win. |
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Hobbs ain't much of a master in the GN.BK could not win when he was well in last year so be even harder this time.
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14s won't last on here you be lucky to get 8s come the race watch and see and I'm not what you lot call ramping
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Agree with you Roger.....Balthazar King is best fresh yes.....but fresh for the national, not a good idea. Look at when he ran in it in 2013....off for a similar amount of days and could only manage 15th! (at the age of 9 so still a good age for the national). Simple facts are the race demands so much more than your average race it catches "best fresh" horses out. You need to be race match fit....look for horses that have ran between 20(ish) days to about 60(ish) you won't be far wrong.
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Roger The Butler 31 Mar 15 21:32
Some evidence of horses winning the national after a 5 month break would be the signal I would want. I have just gone back 25 years and the longest lay off for a National winner is a run in February. Not having it at all that anything can win having been off since November. That's two of the first three in the betting that I just don't believe can win. Irrelevant going back 25 years( or 5 years ). The changes to the fences and course, make comparisons with the past hopeless. The Grand National nowadays is a very different task for a horse. Quite frankly a farce of a race,with hurdles covered in spruce. I believe BK has a very good chance. |
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Fitness and sharpness over 4.5 miles is definitely not irrelevant.
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Current training methods see many horses winning after incredibly long 'lay offs'. A year or more since last seen on a racecourse and then winning, is no longer at all unusual.
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A quick glance at BK's record indicates at least six times he's returned after 4 or 5months absence - and won.
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and how many of those races replicated the GN.
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Up to 3m 7f . He stays alright. What other stats ? - the ' unique ' National fences ? Not anymore. A normal park course now. In fact one could argue the Cheltenham Cross Country is more of a test !
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xcountry is ran at a crawl.
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Well, we'll just have to wait for Saturday week
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He jumped awful last year, never seen a horse jump so bad and get round. Ploughed through loads of fences.
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I like Hobbs 'tother runner more tbh
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Balthazar is my main ew hope and took 20s from BV 5 places some weeks ago and should hopefully be placed at least as his preparation is said to have gone very well. Just a bit concerned that the 3 pound rise from last year will be too much especially as his weight is now close to a gold cup winner and other gold cup type horses.
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reckon best will be a place - doubt he will win.
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He needs Many Clouds to run, if he has any chance of winning, because horses carrying big weights, don't win the National and the only exception to this in the last 50 years is Red Rum
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Cricket Nut
If Many Clouds does not run and Unioniste is top weight then Balthazar King will carry 11st 6lb...which is the same weight as Neptune Collonges and only 1lb more than Don`t Push It. Not saying it will win, but get your `only exception` quote up to date. |
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5 winners from last 10 runnings carried 11st or more.
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It will run a big race, I'm sure, but at the moment, its not my idea of the winner. A horse also needs a recent run to win at this meeting and Balthazar Kings last run, was at the Paddy Power meeting in November. I'm not saying it can't win, but the trends aren't great for it.
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7 out of last 10 winners have been aged 10 or 11.
That's two ' trend boxes ' ticked for BK. |
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5 out of last 10 winners have had sp of 14/1 or less
- another tick. |
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Nothing wins without a prep run in February or March. Oops.
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Against Balthazar King I have Weight, time between runs and placed in the race before. I would want bigger than 12-1.
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Philip Hobbs , '.............if you look through his form, his best form has always been after a layoff, so it’s best to go to the National as fresh as can be........"
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Then I presume Hobbs was on holiday when, in last years race, it ran the best race of its life, having ran at Cheltenham 3 weeks earlier!
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5 out of last 10 winners have had sp of 14/1 or less
or 4 of the last 6 have been 25/1 , 33/1 , 66/1 , 100/1 ................... |
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5 out of last 10 winners have had sp of 14/1 or less
How is that a trend?!  |
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sixtwosix has mythbusted it anyway
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I was being ironic
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Haemolysis 08 Apr 15 09:25
Then I presume Hobbs was on holiday when, in last years race, it ran the best race of its life, having ran at Cheltenham 3 weeks earlier! In my opinion I count Winning form as best form |
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Close to winning last year ......out with the washing the year before .
I would not take skinny odds ,simply missing Cheltenham does not ensure victory. |
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Winning form is best form? So Balthazar King's win in a maiden hurdle was better form than 2nd in the National?
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It is when my money is on it
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Good luck to you all if you are on all the best
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I live up the road from the stable.... we're gearing up for the sunday welcome home... banner about to be made!
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