Grand National
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Now the champ has just about chosen his ride the price will just reduce all the way till race day . but apart from the jockey i find it impossible to fancy . weight and age are negatives and in his Irish National win the form has been shot to shreds . on the day the weights came out the handicapper said Irish Nationall form was UTTER RUBBISH . Rocky Creek should be the favourite even though i not convinced at all that he will stay trip after his wind operation .
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Replies: 16
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Completely agree with this. Age a slight negative, but runs this season, and time since last run are hugely against it. And its only ran in 6 chases - not enough experience. Even the trend hating form guys must have a problem with this one being jolly!
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Disagree on one of the points - yes price is ridiculous - but would have this horse in my top 4 easily... I think 11-2 is only 2lb above 11 st mark ... horse in the last 5 years have won off slightly higher... Irish National - Well win any of the nationals puts you in the picture... No stamina issues... trained by soneone who knows how to win a race like this... and age not a concern... and is a good jumper and good jockey on board.
Rocky Creek fav? No - Three of his fancied rivals fell early in his last race... so won easily - think you have to take result with a pinch of salt really... was a lot more flattered ... Shutthefrontdoor should be favourite but at 10s or 12s certainly not 7s! |
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Very happy( and confident) with my 12/1.
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Any guesses to what it might start at ? I wouldn't be surprised to see 9/2.
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They will no doubt both go off at silly prices , 5/1 , 6/1.
As much as he was a favourite of mine , Monkerhostin back in the day went off a truly insanely short price. |
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Insane price he's a 40/1 poke for me.I think he pulls up or falls.
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On age, chase experience and time since last run I wouldn't be touching it with a barge pole.
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7/2 at the off, every housewife in the country will be on it!
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Won't go off the fav ;)
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Interesting idea
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only way it will not go off the fav is if for some reason the champ changes his mind about riding it .
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If Goonyella sneaks in on 10 0 , on soft or heavy ground , his price will tumble after hacking up at Uttoxeter.
I have little doubt you know who would tip him and I think he could well go off fav ......let's see if he gets in. |
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even that old tugboat Monbeg Dude could sneak a place in heavy conditions
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I agree that Goonyella on heavy ground could possibly go off fav. He is big with NRNB imo as trainer said he would only run if soft was in the going.
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Good back to lay though as wont be going off at current 8.2?
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Lay to back?
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