Grand National
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I really cannot fathom why these two are as short as they are and think they are the worst value in the race by far.
Alright they beat up some slow old trees on the Comedy Cheese Wedge course at Cheltenham but they now up against proper animals, that have been running and winning Gold Cups, Welsh and Irish Nationals, Hennessey Gold Cups etc.
So, Balthazar King is 9lb well-in you say, but it's still 11lb higher than it's last win on the conventional course at Cheltenham and was beaten 90L in this last year off a 4lb lower mark.
Ah but what about Silver Birch, yes but this had won a Welsh National previously, Big Shu has never won other than over the Cross-Country races and his style of running, held up for a late run, he'll be 3 fences behind running that way by the finish.
We all know these posts have a habit of seeing the poster with egg on their faces, but I seriously can't see either of these in the first 10.
Alright they beat up some slow old trees on the Comedy Cheese Wedge course at Cheltenham but they now up against proper animals, that have been running and winning Gold Cups, Welsh and Irish Nationals, Hennessey Gold Cups etc.
So, Balthazar King is 9lb well-in you say, but it's still 11lb higher than it's last win on the conventional course at Cheltenham and was beaten 90L in this last year off a 4lb lower mark.
Ah but what about Silver Birch, yes but this had won a Welsh National previously, Big Shu has never won other than over the Cross-Country races and his style of running, held up for a late run, he'll be 3 fences behind running that way by the finish.
We all know these posts have a habit of seeing the poster with egg on their faces, but I seriously can't see either of these in the first 10.
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I also agree for the reasons above but could see them completing without troubling the judge.
I have enough doubts about some of the other leading fancies.
Long Run- Jumping has been an issue but I feel he has jumped much better this year. However, he has went out like a light at the business end recently.
Tidal Bay-Top weight 13 year old. Fell at 10th on last visit. Don't think he will like hurly burly of big field.
Burton Port- Undoubtedly well handicapped on best form. Not very big, been injured, doubtful stayer.
The Package- Has had chances, not convinced he is putting it all in.
Double Seven- Bit of an unknown on many fronts and McCoy booking has artificially compressed his price.
I have enough doubts about some of the other leading fancies.
Long Run- Jumping has been an issue but I feel he has jumped much better this year. However, he has went out like a light at the business end recently.
Tidal Bay-Top weight 13 year old. Fell at 10th on last visit. Don't think he will like hurly burly of big field.
Burton Port- Undoubtedly well handicapped on best form. Not very big, been injured, doubtful stayer.
The Package- Has had chances, not convinced he is putting it all in.
Double Seven- Bit of an unknown on many fronts and McCoy booking has artificially compressed his price.
it doesn't look like your theory held up to well with Balthazar King. I know those Hunter Chases are run at a crawl but they're all carrying big weights, Balthazar King was carrying nearly a stone less than he normally has to. Plus the horse was in great form, much better than least season. Big Shu also had a great form line with BK from their last run so would have been capable of going close had he stayed up
AND-The 4th horse in the cross country at Cheltenham, Duke of Lucca, won the precceding raceto the national!
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