Grand National
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I have been ploughing through the form.. Always find one, if not a small handful to pick from. I am no expert or pretend to be one but have found a few winners over the years based on my feeling for the form, just based on form over 30/32+ furlongs. Can only see Big Shu but many see the cross country thing as a negative...What else has form over this type of distance? I know it is way more than this but it's always some form just somewhere over the longer distances that will always be found somewhere with a few exceptions. Grrrr..Lots of good horses over 24F+ but why would they stay 36F?
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any horse stays 4 mile..if the race is run slow enough.
Well all last years first 4 home had placed in a race at 3 mile 5 plus. |
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The National is a minefield today but I found many good priced winners in the past following a simple formula. You needed a horse that could win or at least run well in a decent race at or especially in excess of three miles. This ticked the box for both stamina and class. I would rather take a chance on a good horse which had shown it stayed to a point than back an out and out plodder on likely decent ground but which would be put under pressure too soon.
Whether this still holds true I don't know because it isn't a race I take that seriously these days. |
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I prefer to see Big Shu in the way Tom Segal saw him in his pricewise article on the G.N. in the R.P. on the 12thFeb when he said "Others who have the potential to run well are Cheltenham Cross Country Chase winner Big Shu who might simply be an improving horse".
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Jasey hits the nail on the head, I would be confident that most Gold Cup winners would stay 4 miles better than the 'proven plodders', they simply don't usually run over that distance because they aren't that slow, but the prize money here is gigantic. I would reckon that the record of horses that previously ran in a Gold Cup would be mighty impressive in this race though I don't have any stats to hand.
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