Grand National
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01 Apr 14
18:55
Joined:
Date Joined:
03 Jun 07
5yo+, 3m 1f, Class 1, 6 runners
1 015-F61 Argocat (IRE) 6 11-7 T J Taaffe A P McCoy
2 121-251 Dynaste (FR) 8 11-7 D Pipe T Scudamore
3 13-3423 First Lieutenant (IRE) 9 11-7p M F Morris B J Geraghty
4 161439 Houblon Des Obeaux (FR) 7 11-7 Miss V Williams A Coleman
5 3P22-P0 Menorah (IRE) 9 11-7 P J Hobbs R Johnson
6 1F3-314 Silviniaco Conti (FR) 8 11-7 P F Nicholls N Fehily
Betting forecast
Dynaste (15/8), Silviniaco Conti (2/1), First Lieutenant (3/1), Menorah (10/1), Argocat (16/1), Houblon Des Obeaux (20/1),
Probably not the most interesting race, FL not in the same form as last season but the better ground should help and he also missed cheltenham. Dynaste and SC both race 3 weeks after the festival. Has Dynaste finally proved that he is the real deal ?
1 015-F61 Argocat (IRE) 6 11-7 T J Taaffe A P McCoy
2 121-251 Dynaste (FR) 8 11-7 D Pipe T Scudamore
3 13-3423 First Lieutenant (IRE) 9 11-7p M F Morris B J Geraghty
4 161439 Houblon Des Obeaux (FR) 7 11-7 Miss V Williams A Coleman
5 3P22-P0 Menorah (IRE) 9 11-7 P J Hobbs R Johnson
6 1F3-314 Silviniaco Conti (FR) 8 11-7 P F Nicholls N Fehily
Betting forecast
Dynaste (15/8), Silviniaco Conti (2/1), First Lieutenant (3/1), Menorah (10/1), Argocat (16/1), Houblon Des Obeaux (20/1),
Probably not the most interesting race, FL not in the same form as last season but the better ground should help and he also missed cheltenham. Dynaste and SC both race 3 weeks after the festival. Has Dynaste finally proved that he is the real deal ?
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Replies: 28
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first lieutenant -no brainer!!
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Witn Tyson here at the odds, Mouse will have him raring to go.
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Dynaste won here LY after running at the Festival. Same again????
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dynaste? 3m.1f?- not sure about that!
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He won at 3 mile here last year.
Dynaste is one of the best bets of the meeting for me |
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certainly looked good at cheltenham too! but I would rather duck chelt. runners.
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Fancy Conti maybe to make all here, as such good jumper normally. Just depends on how much Cheltenham took out of him?
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Fancy Conti maybe to make all here, as such good jumper normally. Just depends on how much Cheltenham took out of him?
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Hope and think Dynaste wins this. Clearly he was injured in the King George, his Haydock run is the best form on offer and he missed the gruelling Gold Cup unlike SC who was hanging at the end of it. GC runners have a real shocking record in this race, Denman,Imperial Commander, Kauto Star all beaten in it.
First Lieutenant has a chance but looks quite exposed now after some tough races on testing ground. |
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Pipe did the Ryanair/Bowl double with Our Vic, too. Dynaste looks a solid favourite to me.
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As people mention the Chelt Festival as a reason to NOT back horses hear is an article from the NTF website by Ben Aitken. VERY INTERESTING.
Horses that ran at the Cheltenham Festival struggle to run their race when they come on to Aintree… That is something you will probably hear quite a bit over the three days. Personally I don’t buy it. The bare figures actually say… Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out 70 winners from 691 runners | 10% S/R | +£138.97 BFLSP Win & Place –188/691 | 27% S/R Of the 126 winners at the past six Aintree Grand National Festivals 70 had their last start at the Cheltenham Festival. Yes there were a huge 691 of the Aintree runners that had their last run at Cheltenham but don’t be sucked into believing a run at the Cheltenham Festival is a negative. For sure, Cheltenham can leave its mark on some runners but they do convert at the expected rate at Aintree (in fact it is a smidge above expected) and it is best to ignore the ‘Cheltenham myth’ to a certain extent. If we look a bit closer we can see that 41 of that 70 finished in the top three at the festival. If you had backed all 183 of these types over the past 6 seasons you would have returned a +£123.81 BFLSP. Aintree is a well-established spring festival with an array of valuable and prestigious prizes on offer; it makes sense that trainers target the top races here. The season isn’t just simply about Cheltenham (despite what the media may have you believe) and **shock horror** there will have been some horses running at Prestbury Park with one (or both) eyes firmly on other targets. Some will in fact have been targeted at both meetings. Cheltenham can, and will, take a lot out of some horses and ‘leave its mark’ but to me that isn’t the real reason that some horses ‘flop’ when they come on to Aintree. The main reason for me is the difference in track configurations. The two tracks are very different in lay-out and some horses will simply act better around the hefty Cheltenham contours than the lighter Aintree ones, and vice-versa. To me it has a lot more to do with ability to handle the track than suffering from post-traumatic-Cheltenham-stress-fatigue (a known symptom for many punters, who let’s be honest are less robust than a thoroughbred machine…and I include myself in that!). Beware of that Cheltenham myth! |
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I'd agree with that Shcokster, though the record of Gold Cup runners in the Bowl is a bad one. Running in two Grade 1's over 25f in the space of 3 weeks is a tough task.
Prior to the Bowl last season First Lieutenant ran in the Ryanair so traditionally it is the best pointer. |
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Yes Sint I know what you're saying and like all these things, it's information worth noting but not gospel in my book. The blanket of avoid Chelt runners at Aintree though is a flawed argument as the figs prove. I am with Dynaste here.
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I have not done a comprehensive list but at least 3 Cheltenham horses have come out and won so far out of not very many runners. The going was near perfect there so it won't have affected horses nearly as much as racing on soft or heavy.
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you gotta be selective about which ones you take on - also, Betfair Bowl (3m 1f) is on first day at Aintree, vs Gold Cup (3m 2.5f) on last day at Cheltenham so less than three weeks, Supreme Novices on Tues vs Mersey Novices for those wanting to go up in trip on the Saturday - 25 days and novices hurdle generally less attritional than staying chase.
Not saying that's the be all and end all either but all these things gotta be taken into consideration. The record of World Hurdle winners in the Liverpool Hurdle is freakishly good - albeit skewed by a legend in Big Buck's. |
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^ should be World Hurdle runners, they did n't all win.
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Winners so far. Hey Big Spender, Manyriverstocross, Ravens Tower and Ohio Gold. None of them won at Cheltenham but it suggests that horses that ran there have come back well.
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What do people think the ground actually is ? The same ground as last season ?
Apr 5 2013/Aintree/14:30 Result Dynaste 11-4 Winning time: 6m 31.50s Apr 4 2013/Aintree/14:30 Result Silviniaco Conti 11-7 Winning time: 6m 25.40s (btn 1 3/4) I know Dynaste is entitled to improve, SC form over 3 miles with soft in the description better on 2nd viewing. Probably need to time the first race  |
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Absolutely impossible to compare times in different 3m chases imo.
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Houblon Des Obeaux 40s e/w
His Ascot form this season is very good (plus a former Reynoldstown runner up) and has been overlooked after a disappointing Gold Cup run. 40s each way is extremely good value, as some of the favoured runners could bomb out. The generous price may be because it's thought he needs Soft, but there's patches of form on Good ground. If he's started off at/near the head of the pace, he should trade much lower IR. Good Luck |
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Im going for Silviniaco Conti @11/4
good luck. |
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Menorah 12/1
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has to be silvio at the prices.
gl |
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fantastic ride and performance
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wd Ibra, other backers.
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Well done, Sonko
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When i back Conti he loses,when i opposse he wins.
Good price as well for backers. |
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Boom Conti
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