Grand National
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looks like he might get a run. a bit of rain would help, but he is by Presenting.
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I like this horse although experience is against him being only a 7year old. However last times run getting beat 3 lengths by Don Poli and giving him 3lbs now looks very good. Admittedly it was a hurdle but Don Poli won at Cheltenham off 143 and Goonyella runs here off 138 with only 10st 1lb on his back. I have backed him though with the bookies NRNB 66/1 EW 5 places. No risk if he doesn't get in and a cracking price if he does. Good Luck
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Had a nightmare trip to get over here for the Welsh National , and this normally strong traveller was never going.
He ran in the Irish Grand National last year , but his saddle slipped very early on. He is my idea of the winner. No weight , proven stayer , and solid jumper. Had a break since a very good second in a Novice hurdle. |
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Agree with both sets of comments, there's a couple of other WISE MEN out there! Have backed this horse to win 15K 66/1 ew 5 places NRNB. He has probably ran in more staying chases than most horse of his age, so experience is no problem. Just need some luck in running and a smart ride from Andrew Lynch. After Cheltenham there is no way that the going will be any faster than good to soft, so that's something in our favour too.
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I'm in with this chap too.
Stats boffins will tell you no 7yo has won The National since Bogskar in 1940. Made to be broken.. |
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Madness.
You know your fate. why back a mudlark ? Will be taken off his feet and pulled up |
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Most horses don't finish the race, for various reasons including going too fast on the first lap. Do you think Monbeg Dude will be up with the leaders early? I guess not.
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The Dude has showed he has the class to win top staying races unlike Goonyella
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how many more does he need to come out to get a run.
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He is number 47
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Tried to have £25 e/w with the betfair sports book nr/nb 66/1, 5 places, this is the biggest horse race in the world, £6 e/w max what a joke, they make freds look good.
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The last 7 year old to win the National was?
Will let you look it up. Clue: It was during a war, and not the Gulf one. Would also discount it on grounds of inexperience with only 8 chase starts, though with a PTP background I would accept you could argue your case on that. |
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Bogskar
Best finish in last 30 odd years was 6th place for a 7 year old. |
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Yes Bogskar - no 7 year old winner since 1940.
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Roger - you find me a 66/1 shot with no negatives.
I agree he's not a trend horse but on form there is no way he should be 66/1. Happy with my bet. |
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Fair enough and you're right. I have backed horses at 66/1 and 50/1 who I am very keen on but people could criticise on a few things.
But 7 year olds do not even place in Nationals. So I don't like the product, and I'm out. But I wish you luck. |
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Shockster.
Raz De Maree is a big price trends horse if thats what your after |
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Jasey I'm def not a trends punter. Fair enough to you guys who like them, but I prefer to look at form in most instances. Not saying I never use a trend. Example I will always be against 5 yr olds for Champ Hurdle and always against past winners of the Gold Cup in the big race it's self. Therefore I can see why lots would be against a 7 yr old and maybe at 20/1 I would be but 66/1 is a different matter and I think it's worth the risk. I've also backed Triolo D'alene at 150 on here before the Hennessy and he's only 7. Before I get accused of aftertiming on the price, It's on another thread before the hennessy. It's all about price to me. I think Tidal bay has a chance and he's 13 but not bet him at the price. For the record I'm also on Pineau de Re 40/1, Double Seven 33/1 and Vintage Star 100 on here. % against the field.
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5 against the field.
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I do like trends but i have backed 7 year olds in the past.
If any horse has the luck and is good enough on the day it will win regardless so good luck with your picks. |
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How are we looking now run wise, no 46 ?
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I make it 47 or 48 (Swing Bill could get the nod over him).
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Above him I reckon there are 4 almost certainly out, and about another 10 quite doubtful, judging by exchange odds. So very optimistic he will get a run. BTW I got £50ew with BF sportsbook over the last 10 days 66/1, but they wont allow me any more
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I don't see the relevance of his age , because he is taking part in a race that now looks like the Scottish National not the Aintree version of tradition.
This fellow travels , jumps , stays and has no weight ....he's the one for me. |
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Still needs 1 more to drop out!!!!!!
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Can't see all 40 standing their ground , usually one or two on the Topham for starters.
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Yes 626 agree and Liam Cusack has already said Last Time Dalbain is likely to run in the Topham.
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Think you might still be able to get 50/1 which would be the best value bet currently on offer. The favourite is a ridiculous price. Well beaten from a winning position last year and hasn't any race for over two years.
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I think 'youknowwho' will tip this fellow up on Saturday ....the price will vanish then.
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Thought he would have made it in to the race today, so a few more days of stress and worry! The concern is that the ones above have paid a lot of money in entrance fees to stay in this long, so may well just take their chance. A couple with 200+ exchange odds, so all hope isn't lost. Had a bit more on at 50/1 ew 5 places. Head down, steam in!
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One last desperate hope would be that the POTS withdraw Buckers Bridge to give Goonyella a run.
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Good point that Tommy2. Made me have a look at Buckers B properly too. Apart from a PTP he's not won beyond 2.5 miles but his last run doesn't read bad at the weights now over 3miles. Have had an EW nibble on that one just in case. NRNB of course.
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Now need 2 out, swing bill won the ballot, aarghhh.
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Very unlikely to get two come out at this stage. Left with the prospect of 13yo running instead of a potential winner. Bookmakers saved. Should have skipped the ballot and just put in the shorter priced runner.
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Can hardly pull out Buckers Bridge to allow Swing Bill to run.
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Still got a chance , but not certain.
Too many 'dead wood' runners with marks reflecting ability they no longer haveabove him . Shakalakaboomboom , Burton Port , Across The Bay , Lion Na Bearnai , Prince De Beauchene , Golan Way ......to name six who will not be troubling the judge even for a place. |
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In previous years, a fair few have dropped out after this stage. I wouldn't give up hope.
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Goonyella is a million miles from the class required to win this.
SIXTWOSIX i would take all them horses except Golan Way to finish in front of Goonyella |
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I wouldn't bank on Burton Port being past it, still young & with lots of class form and came 2nd last time out.
The Grand National is littered with horses who've won it after appearing to be past their best. |
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The more I look at Buckers Bridge, the more I like it. At 66/1 EW I think it's a cracking bet. His last race was The Bobbyjo Chase behind On His Own, who had just won the Thyestes Chase before this and then franked the form big style in the Gold Cup. On that run he's not badly in at the weights at all. He's quite lightly raced and open to improvement over longer trips although there is a chance he won't stay but at 66/1 has to be worth a bet. NRNB is a must (170 on here but I'd rather have NRNB)as he may be sacrificed for Goonyella but if he runs I want to be with him for the same ownership and won't have to worry about the colours when I'm watching.
Every cloud and all that.  That's 6 for me if they all run. Too many really but shortest price taken 33/1 so we'll see. Good luck. |