Grand National
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looks like he might get a run. a bit of rain would help, but he is by Presenting.
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Roger - you find me a 66/1 shot with no negatives.
I agree he's not a trend horse but on form there is no way he should be 66/1. Happy with my bet.
I agree he's not a trend horse but on form there is no way he should be 66/1. Happy with my bet.
Fair enough and you're right. I have backed horses at 66/1 and 50/1 who I am very keen on but people could criticise on a few things.
But 7 year olds do not even place in Nationals. So I don't like the product, and I'm out. But I wish you luck.
But 7 year olds do not even place in Nationals. So I don't like the product, and I'm out. But I wish you luck.
Shockster.
Raz De Maree is a big price trends horse if thats what your after
Raz De Maree is a big price trends horse if thats what your after
Jasey I'm def not a trends punter. Fair enough to you guys who like them, but I prefer to look at form in most instances. Not saying I never use a trend. Example I will always be against 5 yr olds for Champ Hurdle and always against past winners of the Gold Cup in the big race it's self. Therefore I can see why lots would be against a 7 yr old and maybe at 20/1 I would be but 66/1 is a different matter and I think it's worth the risk. I've also backed Triolo D'alene at 150 on here before the Hennessy and he's only 7. Before I get accused of aftertiming on the price, It's on another thread before the hennessy. It's all about price to me. I think Tidal bay has a chance and he's 13 but not bet him at the price. For the record I'm also on Pineau de Re 40/1, Double Seven 33/1 and Vintage Star 100 on here. % against the field.
I do like trends but i have backed 7 year olds in the past.
If any horse has the luck and is good enough on the day it will win regardless so good luck with your picks.
If any horse has the luck and is good enough on the day it will win regardless so good luck with your picks.
I make it 47 or 48 (Swing Bill could get the nod over him).
Above him I reckon there are 4 almost certainly out, and about another 10 quite doubtful, judging by exchange odds. So very optimistic he will get a run. BTW I got £50ew with BF sportsbook over the last 10 days 66/1, but they wont allow me any more
I don't see the relevance of his age , because he is taking part in a race that now looks like the Scottish National not the Aintree version of tradition.
This fellow travels , jumps , stays and has no weight ....he's the one for me.
This fellow travels , jumps , stays and has no weight ....he's the one for me.
Can't see all 40 standing their ground , usually one or two on the Topham for starters.
Yes 626 agree and Liam Cusack has already said Last Time Dalbain is likely to run in the Topham.
Think you might still be able to get 50/1 which would be the best value bet currently on offer. The favourite is a ridiculous price. Well beaten from a winning position last year and hasn't any race for over two years.
I think 'youknowwho' will tip this fellow up on Saturday ....the price will vanish then.
Thought he would have made it in to the race today, so a few more days of stress and worry! The concern is that the ones above have paid a lot of money in entrance fees to stay in this long, so may well just take their chance. A couple with 200+ exchange odds, so all hope isn't lost. Had a bit more on at 50/1 ew 5 places. Head down, steam in!
One last desperate hope would be that the POTS withdraw Buckers Bridge to give Goonyella a run.
Good point that Tommy2. Made me have a look at Buckers B properly too. Apart from a PTP he's not won beyond 2.5 miles but his last run doesn't read bad at the weights now over 3miles. Have had an EW nibble on that one just in case. NRNB of course.
Very unlikely to get two come out at this stage. Left with the prospect of 13yo running instead of a potential winner. Bookmakers saved. Should have skipped the ballot and just put in the shorter priced runner.
Can hardly pull out Buckers Bridge to allow Swing Bill to run.
Still got a chance , but not certain.
Too many 'dead wood' runners with marks reflecting ability they no longer haveabove him .
Shakalakaboomboom , Burton Port , Across The Bay , Lion Na Bearnai , Prince De Beauchene , Golan Way ......to name six who will not be troubling the judge even for a place.
Too many 'dead wood' runners with marks reflecting ability they no longer haveabove him .
Shakalakaboomboom , Burton Port , Across The Bay , Lion Na Bearnai , Prince De Beauchene , Golan Way ......to name six who will not be troubling the judge even for a place.
In previous years, a fair few have dropped out after this stage. I wouldn't give up hope.
Goonyella is a million miles from the class required to win this.
SIXTWOSIX i would take all them horses except Golan Way to finish in front of Goonyella
SIXTWOSIX i would take all them horses except Golan Way to finish in front of Goonyella
I wouldn't bank on Burton Port being past it, still young & with lots of class form and came 2nd last time out.
The Grand National is littered with horses who've won it after appearing to be past their best.
The Grand National is littered with horses who've won it after appearing to be past their best.
The more I look at Buckers Bridge, the more I like it. At 66/1 EW I think it's a cracking bet. His last race was The Bobbyjo Chase behind On His Own, who had just won the Thyestes Chase before this and then franked the form big style in the Gold Cup. On that run he's not badly in at the weights at all. He's quite lightly raced and open to improvement over longer trips although there is a chance he won't stay but at 66/1 has to be worth a bet. NRNB is a must (170 on here but I'd rather have NRNB)as he may be sacrificed for Goonyella but if he runs I want to be with him for the same ownership and won't have to worry about the colours when I'm watching.
Every cloud and all that.
That's 6 for me if they all run. Too many really but shortest price taken 33/1 so we'll see. Good luck.
Every cloud and all that.
That's 6 for me if they all run. Too many really but shortest price taken 33/1 so we'll see. Good luck.
It's all about opinions , will be good to look at different peoples choices once the race is run .....at least we are not aftertiming.
Apart from Goonyella , I think Teaforthree and Rocky Creek look obvious possibilities . In addition I have a sneaky feeling that Colbert Station could run a cracker. He tips up far too often for confidence , but his falls have all been when still travelling well. These new hurdles may well suit him.
Apart from Goonyella , I think Teaforthree and Rocky Creek look obvious possibilities . In addition I have a sneaky feeling that Colbert Station could run a cracker. He tips up far too often for confidence , but his falls have all been when still travelling well. These new hurdles may well suit him.
Yes sure it's just my interpretation but using On His Own as a yardstick let's look at Teaforthree and Triolo D'Alene (I'm on this one) in the Gold Cup, and I appreciate that it was a warm up for the National, but they were going for it at 2 out. T43 was beaten 21L and TD btn 30L off levels. Buckers was beaten 17L in the Bobbyjo giving OHO 5lb. T43 9/1Fav, BB 66/1.
I know these things rarely work out like this but the price of this one is wrong IMO.
I know these things rarely work out like this but the price of this one is wrong IMO.
f*ckinell sixtwosix, you've named three of mine there!
Gold Cup was a total freak of a race, using that form literally is pretty dangerous imo
I agree in principal Marychain about the Gold Cup, My point is that On His Own has had 3 cracking good runs on the spin and was in the form of his life and connections new this, thus supplementing him for the Gold Cup.
Agree Marychain1 . It is the one worry I would have for Teaforthree (and any runner in the Gold Cup). It was a very average renewal , but it looked to take a stack out of the combatants .
On His Own peaked at the right time ,just like Synchronised , in a poor renewal . The quality of the Gold Cup goes up and down ....we had a stellar period and now three pretty average races.
On His Own peaked at the right time ,just like Synchronised , in a poor renewal . The quality of the Gold Cup goes up and down ....we had a stellar period and now three pretty average races.
I don't have any issue with Giant Bolster, On His Own or Lord Windermere's run in the Gold Cup. If someone had said you could throw a blanket over them as they finished I wouldn't have been surprised. I don't think its unreasonable to look at that form for what it is.
I would have assumed we were talking about the 3rd-5th placed finishers though, 15+ lengths behind Bob's Worth.
I would have assumed we were talking about the 3rd-5th placed finishers though, 15+ lengths behind Bob's Worth.
Sounds about right Marychain although not many win more than 1 Gold cup. Still the price differential on Buckers Bridge and T43, Triolo looks wrong on lines through OHO and to me that spells value. Noy saying it's going to win but is value based on form and price of the favourite.
T43 surely too short though and priced up on basis that he was best finisher last year of those trying again.
Bit harsh begrudging Swing Bill a run given he was sixth last year and would have rewarded each way players with one or two firms at 80/1.
Just wonder if Monbeg Dude might start favourite - by Saturday morning the general public will be buying into the idea that Zara trains him for her hubbie who bought him when p1ssed after a dwarf throwing contest.
As for me, I'm increasingly keen on the chances of The Package.
Bit harsh begrudging Swing Bill a run given he was sixth last year and would have rewarded each way players with one or two firms at 80/1.
Just wonder if Monbeg Dude might start favourite - by Saturday morning the general public will be buying into the idea that Zara trains him for her hubbie who bought him when p1ssed after a dwarf throwing contest.
As for me, I'm increasingly keen on the chances of The Package.
Nick Henderson says 3 of his runners wont like the SOFT ground. So why on earth is he running them! Answer up maestro and give some respect to those who would appreciate the SOFT ground. Too many owners in this race for the craic.
You answered your own question. It is the same with Festival handicaps. Those framing the races like to see the 'deadwood' keeping out something that potentially might have a few pounds in hand. It's alright raving about a better class of runner but often these horses are a couple of years past their best.
The Ebor on the flat is a classic example. 3 year olds have no chance of getting a run
Swing bill apparently last one in, so owners can withdraw Buckers Bridge if they prefer Goonyella.
Just wonder if Monbeg Dude might start favourite - by Saturday morning the general public will be buying into the idea that Zara trains him for her hubbie who bought him when p1ssed after a dwarf throwing contest.
yes, reese, the public fall for that type of horse every year....
yes, reese, the public fall for that type of horse every year....
The Ebor on the flat is a classic example. 3 year olds have no chance of getting a run
tommy, I think the order of ballot will be decided by official mark, not actual weight to be carried. 3yos would have as good a chance as any of getting in if they are good enough
tommy, I think the order of ballot will be decided by official mark, not actual weight to be carried. 3yos would have as good a chance as any of getting in if they are good enough
They must now decide which of Buckers Bridge & Goonyella they believe is the better option....I know which one I think it is.
They may decide to try again in the Irish version ,so long as the ground does not dry out.
But I think this ground and distance is spot on for Goonyella ....ffs Shakalakaboomboom runs and this fellow does not , has it jumped a fence in 2 years ?
They may decide to try again in the Irish version ,so long as the ground does not dry out.
But I think this ground and distance is spot on for Goonyella ....ffs Shakalakaboomboom runs and this fellow does not , has it jumped a fence in 2 years ?
ATR earlier showed Lynch on Buckers Bridge and Brennan on Goonyella. Would they have jocked them up if they were just going to pull Buckers Bridge? Don't associate Brennan with a decent Aintree record but perhaps the stats suggest otherwise? Clearly Goonyella has the better chance but I can see the owners leaving things as they are. Is there a chance of anything else pulling out?
Pedro, re the Ebor, it is actual weight carried that decides balloting. If a 3yo has an official rating of 100 and a weight of 8st 7lbs he is balloted instead of a 4yo with 8st 8lbs rated 90.
anyone know when the cut-off is for reserves getting in? something like 10am Friday rings a bell but any better info appreciated - cheers.
Macmanus or Gigginstown wouldn't hesitate to withdraw one to get a better fancied reserve in to a race
Don't think he will get a run now unfortunately . It is the not knowing how he would have done that is irritating .
Oh well , that's the end of this 'non story' . 
Can't for the life of me see why they can't have the deadline at 9 am on Saturday .....oh ffs I forgot about the newspaper sweeepstake kits.
Let's see if all 40 are still running this time tomorrow.
Can't for the life of me see why they can't have the deadline at 9 am on Saturday .....oh ffs I forgot about the newspaper sweeepstake kits.
Let's see if all 40 are still running this time tomorrow.
^^ can you imagine the carnage if a horse won that wasn't on the bookies quickslips 
Too many 'dead wood' runners with marks reflecting ability they no longer haveabove him .
Shakalakaboomboom , Burton Port , Across The Bay , Lion Na Bearnai , Prince De Beauchene , Golan Way ......to name six who will not be troubling the judge even for a place.
I wouldn't bank on Burton Port being past it, still young & with lots of class form and came 2nd last time out.
Shakalakaboomboom , Burton Port , Across The Bay , Lion Na Bearnai , Prince De Beauchene , Golan Way ......to name six who will not be troubling the judge even for a place.
I wouldn't bank on Burton Port being past it, still young & with lots of class form and came 2nd last time out.
Cracking first run of the season chasing home Plinth in a hurdle race....hopefully won't be number 41 this year.
I'm going to put that first fence Becher fence fall down to the low sun.
Grand staying on 3rd in the Thystes today , possibly being beaten by the Gold Cup Winner.
won't get in from 79 ......just like last year there will be a stack of higher rated ,on the downslide horses.
None of the 6 I highlighted last year came within a mile of the money.
None of the 6 I highlighted last year came within a mile of the money.
Shame he will struggle to get in again .....no doubt because of high rated past it steeplechasers just like last year.
Jumped like a stag to won on soft ground today , would be a serious player on similar ground.
Jumped like a stag to won on soft ground today , would be a serious player on similar ground.
it would be favourite in my book if it got in, but it won't
Trainer said it wouldn't get in. He's probably right but I would expect them to leave the horse in at the second forfeit stage just in case.
No way would he be fav.Goon is only a bet if getting soft going.
Number 56 now ....with his new rating after Midlands Grand National romp he would be in the 40 no problem.......load of old has beens above him still on ludicrous ratings ,again.
big fan of the horse, painful memories this fred from last year, but i couldn't back it unless soft in the going
great run today made nice few quid in running, big race will be his when he gets the mud flying.
Awesome performance on that ground and a terrific ride by the jockey to keep him in contention .....that staying power at Aintree could see him home next year .....here's hoping.
First race of the season tomorrow at Cork.
He started in a similar hurdle race last year.
He started in a similar hurdle race last year.
Entered in the bechers. Anyone know if thats a definate plan ?
Just taken a bit of 40/1 EW with Skybet. Not too phased about the run in the Bechers as everything will be geared to the spring. Will be 9 come the race and last years Midland Natioanal winner and Scottish National 2nd will be prepared for the day. 40/1 too big IMO.
Jumped ok ,but tailing off was a surprise ....clinging to the hope he will bebetter for the run .
Just backed Goonyellas stablemate and also same owners (Potts) Buckers Bridge @ odds of 180 on here and 34 place. Ran well for a long way in the National 2 years ago before making mistakes and seemingly being prepared for it again. Runs in Thyestes today so worth backing now as will be nowhere near these odds either on the day or after this if he runs well.
Also Backed Royale Knight 50/1, Double Seven 50/1 @ Goonyella 40/1.
Also Backed Royale Knight 50/1, Double Seven 50/1 @ Goonyella 40/1.
Buckers Bridge ran an OK race 6th of 18 on his 2nd race back in the Thyestes. Still happy with the big odds. Will have a lightweight in the National if he squeezes in.
Had a few quid on Ballycasey @ 66-1. Was enjoying the fences before being wiped out at the canal turn last year.
Slight doubt about the trip but liked his run in Thyestes and more to the point, the way he jumps.
No way was he going to be tuned up for that and as Aintree is his target dont expect fireworks until the weights are framed.
That said, Goonyella is definitely a player and similar comments apply to him. If he had won the Beecher then it was game over for the National. Entered in Thurles over hurdles on Thursday, start of the build up.
Slight doubt about the trip but liked his run in Thyestes and more to the point, the way he jumps.
No way was he going to be tuned up for that and as Aintree is his target dont expect fireworks until the weights are framed.
That said, Goonyella is definitely a player and similar comments apply to him. If he had won the Beecher then it was game over for the National. Entered in Thurles over hurdles on Thursday, start of the build up.
He will run better once the weights come out. He is only being trained for one race and they water now so the ground will have some ease and if it rains, happy days.
They should have been trying to get his mark down 10 spots to have any chance
139 last year was bottom weight but it highlights the point the lesser quality horses blow their mark to get in the race these days.
the lesser quality horses blow their mark to get in the race these days.
Rather the problem is horses way past their best on higher marks running in the race with no chance whatsoever , occurs every year.
Goonyella has no problem getting a run this year.
Rather the problem is horses way past their best on higher marks running in the race with no chance whatsoever , occurs every year.
Goonyella has no problem getting a run this year.
What is the fascination with this moderate horse. He has unseated and been last over the National fences !!
By my reckoning giving 25 pounds to winner , outpaced and staying on strongly over a sprint distance of 3 miles.
Connections must be over the moon . A bit of rain near the day and he will be going off favourite and outstaying the field .
Connections must be over the moon . A bit of rain near the day and he will be going off favourite and outstaying the field .
The 10 day weather forecast looks promising - 73 mm of rain forecast for Ormskirk over 10 days (historical average for the month of April for Liverpool is 48).
A week to go until the Goonyella appreciation society day out at Aintree.....over 2 years since it was planned.
The weather forecast looks unsettled for the week.
Very few of the field will be getting home imo and I think Goonyella will go off favourite on the day.
The weather forecast looks unsettled for the week.
Very few of the field will be getting home imo and I think Goonyella will go off favourite on the day.
Going is now "SOFT" on the National course. In the words of John "Hannibal" Smith "I love it when a plan comes together".
No excuses now , the ground is getting spot on for Goonyella ......here's hoping.
Just not good enough to win a GN. Had everything in it's favour but never threatened to get involved !! Should have been 33-1.
Clearly not good enough.
If before the race I would have known he was as close as he was going to Valentines second time on soft ground I would have put my life savings on him winning.
He stayed on past a few tired horses , but surprisingly didn't get close to the front four.
Mind,
Won Midlands National
2nd Scottish Grand National
5th Grand National
is not too shabby.
If before the race I would have known he was as close as he was going to Valentines second time on soft ground I would have put my life savings on him winning.
He stayed on past a few tired horses , but surprisingly didn't get close to the front four.
Mind,
Won Midlands National
2nd Scottish Grand National
5th Grand National
is not too shabby.
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