Grand National
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Can't work out why this one is 50/1. Aintree Festival form reads 1/2/1/1, has two placed efforts at the Cheltenham Festival so clearly targeted at the big handicaps. Handicapper appears to have his measure as he hasn't dropped him much for the usual poor runs over the Winter but will still run off 147, having won off 146 over Hurdles at Haydock. Assuming he gets to the big day, and my pocket hopes he does, surely will much shorter, and he will be certainly primed to run his heart out. What am I missing?
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Hasnt it refused to race last 3 times?
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Only once, pulled up the other twice.Don't be so negative lol
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He profile reminds me a bit of Inca Trail who I backed in 2006 who ran very well until his stamina gave out two from home.
The problems are that hold-up horses rarely win the race and his form this year has been non-existent. He hasn't ran this year and you have to go back to at least Rhyme 'n' Reason to find the last winner with that sort of absence. He's also never ran at more than 3 miles 1 furlong. |
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DHB, just for info, Rhyme N Reason , fell in that years Gold Cup, so have to go back even longer.
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I've gone next door and looked at Paul Jones' Aintree betting guide. He says that Neptune Collonges was the first to win with a LTO of longer than 50 days since Aldaniti. Looking at this racecard online he won in February 1981.
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Form reads PU RR PU.
Like Always Waining last year he might complete the race. |
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I take the question marks about whether he will stay the trip. Like Always Waining I think you can ignore the form as a guide. Before winning twice at Aintree last year it read 6/5/F/11/3. He is consistently a plot job for the Spring Festivals.
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Entered for hurdle race on the thursday
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11-10 not to finish seems generous with Bet £3-65 imo
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