Grand National
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Must have a chance ?
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I agree, could be a lively outsider. Grade 1 winning backform, winning form around the Mildmay course, these seem to be good factors regarding the race, i.e. Don't Push It, Neptune Collonges.
Glad they didn't go for the race last year, and his campaign this season has all the hallmarks of a National build up, if Tidal Bay lines up he'll be virtually off 10 stone |
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11 stone 1 if TB runs
you must be confusing it with Quel Esprit ^^ |
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Fancy this one also
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Quito De La Roque 40/1+ -
4 of the last 5 have been aged 10 or 11 4 of the last 5 have carried 11st to 11st 6lb No Irish winners in the last 5 though ? He's French bred and there's a trend that says that only 2 French breds have won in the last 100 years. However those 2 have come very recently (2009 and 2012) and suggests that as the race has been made 'easier' in recent times then the most recent trends may be best. Perhaps as it is an easier race nowadays trainers are targeting the race for older horses who have not quite reached the very top of their game or on their way down from the top ? They perhaps now see it as winnable and a chance of one last big payday. |
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I cant think of many horses who won this race on the way down,normally well handicapped or progressive horse.
Quito is hard to judge if he is well handicapped or badly handicapped by the fact he has only ran in 1 handicap. I would not want to lay him tho. |
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Could well be the making of him this race, got a managable h'cap mark now and he's usually shaped like he wants 26 miles, so this trip should help.
Also, Shrews - how many French breds have taken part in the 100 years, I guess they are only in recent times so it's likely to skew that stat. |
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Actually there was a French trained, owned and bred 5year old won it in the 1920's
at 11/2. |
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jasey • April 2, 2014 9:37 PM BST
I cant think of many horses who won this race on the way down,normally well handicapped or progressive horse not sure what category neptune collonges, comply or die and silver birch fall into trainer seems to be talking this one up a bit and has obvious ability if takes to these fences im on at biggish prices |
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Love Quito, and hope he runs well, but fear the spark has gone.
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I was suggesting 'targeting' the race rather than the winners themselves. For example last year there was Imperial Commander (Gold Cup winner in 2010), this season Long Run. To me it just seems a better class of animal is contesting the race these days, and with Neptune Collonges winning in 2012 (previously a Gold Cup 3rd and 4th) this may have further woken trainers up to the fact that it's a good prize that is winnable nowadays.
That may well mean that trends over the last 5 years hold sway rather than trends such as the French bred one which goes back a 100 years or so. But two winners in the last 5 is significant, as opposed to zero in the previous 100 before that. My thoughts are recent trends are best, better class horses are contesting the race (hence 4/5 winners carrying 11st or more)and older horses hold sway (10 and 11 year olds winning 4/4, whereas the previous 4 they were 2/4 (both 10yo), 2/4 from the next 4, 2/4 from the next. It used to be common knowledge that the average age of the winner was 9 but that seems to have increased over the last 5 years (and definitely over the last 4) 4 of the last 5 have been aged 10 or 11 4 of the last 5 have carried 11st to 11st 6lb Those recent trends point to only one horse and it may be a mistake for anyone to dismiss it based on a old French bred trend which actually in recent years hasn't been too shabby at all. 2 winners in the last 5, from 7,6,8,11,8 runners (2 from 40) IRE: 3 winners in the last 5, from 27,26,28,21,18 (3 from 120) GB: 0 winners in the last 5, from 4,5,7,11,10 (0 from 37) Those figures aren't to prove that French breds are best nowadays, but just to show they shouldn't be discounted and it may now be best to stick to the most recent trends |
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The 5 year old French trained, owned, ridden and bred, was
LUTTEUR II @ 11/2. A four year old has won when there was a stone wall to jump, the CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP was a race designed to be a trial for the GRAND NATIONAL. |
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Brian O'Connell booked for Quito. He's not ridden him before but he looks like he's a talented jockey who has been struggling with getting rides. Winning the Irish Hennessey will surely have perked his desire up no end, and he rode a good race apparently (must have done, he had Tidal Bay, First Lieutenant and of course Lord Windermere behind that day)
He'll be hungrier than most and looks like he has the strength and stamina to battle out a finish after a hard slog. |