The Old Vic factor

I've never taken much notice of breeding in the National, have always thought that by the time a horse runs in it there is enough evidence of what it can do not to worry too much about the pedigree. Red Rum should have been a sprinter after all, Seabass is by turtle Island .. you could go on and on. But a recent post by Rosellier prompted me to look a bit more, and one thing that does stand out is how many "proper national horses" Old Vic has sired. Not just in terms of stamina, but in particular in terms of their jumping. This is a full list of all the National runners by Old Vic in the last 3 years

Black Appalachi,
Sunnyhill Boy,
Vic Venturi,
In Compliance,
Don't Push it,
Comply Or Die,


Out of 6 runners, 2 of them have (at some point, not necessarily in the last 3 years) won the race, 2 have been 2nd, one placed. Only Vic Venturi has failed to complete, but he was brought down twice in the National and did win a Beecher. Every one of these horses has, I'd say, performed better over the National fences than their park course form, and jumped the fences really well.

In the Topham yesterday Dunowen Point was the only Our Vic, and despite having no obvious form credentials, took to the fences like a duck to water and ran a blinder to be fourth.

This year's national has 2 Old Vics. There is Join Together, who I think gave further credence to the theory with a fine run first time over the fences in November. He should improve for the trip and will jump & stay, but I feel he is too exposed and very badly handicapped. The other Our Vic is Ninetieth Minute. Only qualified last month, and far from an obvious stayer. You need to go back a fair while, but he was once rated 147 over hurdles and won a coral cup from 140, so the 137 he gets in here off isn't bad. If he tasks to the fences like his half brothers of recent years, he might just run a big race at nearly 200-1. He also beat Treacle in Feb and is weighted to reverse that form.  I must say I would be more excited about him if he was in the Topham, but I can't resist a little nibble at the odds. Will be interesting to see if he can take to the fences and lend my little theory some more weight.