Grand National
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Factors I considered. Usual trends first
8-12 yo
135+
11st 6 or less
3m+ win
10 chases
Won a £17k
Assuming 1 of them might be broken, but unlikely two will be, I allowed horses with 1 broken trend to go to the next stage, which left the following (those with 1 broken trend in brackets) :
Across The Bay (1)
Always Waining
Auroras Encore
Backstage (1)
Ballabriggs
Balthazar King
Becauseicouldntsee (1)
Beshabar
Big Fella Thanks
Bob Lingo (1)
Bostons Angel
Cappa Bleu (1)
Chicago Grey
Colbert Station (1)
Forpadydeplasterer
Harry The Viking (1)
Join Together
Joncol
Lion Na Bearnai
Magnanimity
Mumbles Head
On His Own (1)
Oscar Time
Quinz
Rare Bob
Roberto Goldback
Saint Are (1)
Seabass (1)
Sunnyhillboy
Swing Bill
Tarquinius (1)
Tatenen (1)
Teaforthree
The Rainbow Hunter (1)
Tofino Bay
Treacle
Weird Al (1)
What A Friend (1)
Wyck Hill
Then I removed horses based on them not winning two x 3m chases on either good or good to soft. Obviously this will need a rethink if it comes up soft. Again I allowed them one failed criteria but discounted a failure if the horse had now accumulated two. This eliminated :
Across The Bay
Backstage
Becauseicouldntsee
Bob Lingo
Colbert Station
Seabass
Tatenen
The Rainbow Hunter
Weird Al
Then I eliminated horses if they'd had 2 or more falls in their entire career (included Unseated but not brought down and the same 'accumulated allowance' criteria). Eliminated
Auroras Encore
Big Fella Thanks
Bostons Angel
Oscar Time
Saint Are
Then I eliminated horses if they hadn't finished 1,2,3 or 4 last time out or hadn't run within 50 days (and the accumulated allowance ). Eliminated
Balthazar King
Forpadytheplasterer
Harry The Viking
Join Together
Joncol
Magnanimity
Mumbles Head
Roberto Goldback
Sunnyhillboy
Tarquinus
What A Friend
Wyck Hill
This left the top 11 but I then compared their best rated form on gd or gd/sft over 3m+ versus their official rating for this race and eliminated any horse who's OR was higher (with the accumulated allowance still in progress)
..........................Best........Today
Ballabriggs 150.........152 (had received no allowance until now)
Cappa Bleu 140.........145
Chicago Grey 150.........141
Lion Na Bearnai 135.........147
On His Own 135.........148
Quinz 144.........144
Rare Bob 145.........140
Swing Bill 141.........142
Teaforthree 146.........151
Tofino Bay 147.........149
Treacle 127.........143
This left :
Ballabriggs
Chicago Grey
Quinz
Rare Bob
However, the more I think about this race the more I think Imperial Commander will win it. Forget top weight (just for this year), there's one over-riding factor that is unique to this years race.
Imperial Commander is the highest rated horse ever to have run in it (185) but is running off 158 today and has been given a massive chance by the handicapper. The trend of 'top weights don't win' is true, but never in the history of the race has a top weight been as highly rated as this one.
I'm looking for something to beat Ballabriggs as I think it will definitely place and my moneys going on Imperial Commander.
8-12 yo
135+
11st 6 or less
3m+ win
10 chases
Won a £17k
Assuming 1 of them might be broken, but unlikely two will be, I allowed horses with 1 broken trend to go to the next stage, which left the following (those with 1 broken trend in brackets) :
Across The Bay (1)
Always Waining
Auroras Encore
Backstage (1)
Ballabriggs
Balthazar King
Becauseicouldntsee (1)
Beshabar
Big Fella Thanks
Bob Lingo (1)
Bostons Angel
Cappa Bleu (1)
Chicago Grey
Colbert Station (1)
Forpadydeplasterer
Harry The Viking (1)
Join Together
Joncol
Lion Na Bearnai
Magnanimity
Mumbles Head
On His Own (1)
Oscar Time
Quinz
Rare Bob
Roberto Goldback
Saint Are (1)
Seabass (1)
Sunnyhillboy
Swing Bill
Tarquinius (1)
Tatenen (1)
Teaforthree
The Rainbow Hunter (1)
Tofino Bay
Treacle
Weird Al (1)
What A Friend (1)
Wyck Hill
Then I removed horses based on them not winning two x 3m chases on either good or good to soft. Obviously this will need a rethink if it comes up soft. Again I allowed them one failed criteria but discounted a failure if the horse had now accumulated two. This eliminated :
Across The Bay
Backstage
Becauseicouldntsee
Bob Lingo
Colbert Station
Seabass
Tatenen
The Rainbow Hunter
Weird Al
Then I eliminated horses if they'd had 2 or more falls in their entire career (included Unseated but not brought down and the same 'accumulated allowance' criteria). Eliminated
Auroras Encore
Big Fella Thanks
Bostons Angel
Oscar Time
Saint Are
Then I eliminated horses if they hadn't finished 1,2,3 or 4 last time out or hadn't run within 50 days (and the accumulated allowance ). Eliminated
Balthazar King
Forpadytheplasterer
Harry The Viking
Join Together
Joncol
Magnanimity
Mumbles Head
Roberto Goldback
Sunnyhillboy
Tarquinus
What A Friend
Wyck Hill
This left the top 11 but I then compared their best rated form on gd or gd/sft over 3m+ versus their official rating for this race and eliminated any horse who's OR was higher (with the accumulated allowance still in progress)
..........................Best........Today
Ballabriggs 150.........152 (had received no allowance until now)
Cappa Bleu 140.........145
Chicago Grey 150.........141
Lion Na Bearnai 135.........147
On His Own 135.........148
Quinz 144.........144
Rare Bob 145.........140
Swing Bill 141.........142
Teaforthree 146.........151
Tofino Bay 147.........149
Treacle 127.........143
This left :
Ballabriggs
Chicago Grey
Quinz
Rare Bob
However, the more I think about this race the more I think Imperial Commander will win it. Forget top weight (just for this year), there's one over-riding factor that is unique to this years race.
Imperial Commander is the highest rated horse ever to have run in it (185) but is running off 158 today and has been given a massive chance by the handicapper. The trend of 'top weights don't win' is true, but never in the history of the race has a top weight been as highly rated as this one.
I'm looking for something to beat Ballabriggs as I think it will definitely place and my moneys going on Imperial Commander.
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Hes not rated 185 anymore is he though? (Rated 160 now) - Hes best at cheltenham, is prone to injury and bursting blood vessels and is better first time out. He was out a long while but came back at his favourite course and ran a blinder, hes had a setback since. I like your reasoning but think he'll be pulled up.
He's a horse who has to be right for the day, physically and mentally. Generally when the yard have exuded confidence about his well being, he has run well or won. He isn't best first time out, but is best fairly fresh - he has had about the same break here as when winning the Gold Cup. The "setback" was something & nothing, he had a bit of a cold is all, just bad timing. Or maybe, I think, good timing, because he wouldn't have won the gold Cup, and would have had no chance in the national if he'd run in it. But he didn't run in it, so he has a great chance.
I kind of agree with both your arguments though. He'll win or pull up. If he gets into a rhythm and gets round, Chicago Grey is the only horse well enough handicapped to have any chance of going by him imo. And probably will go by him, but not necessarily with a jockey on board.
I kind of agree with both your arguments though. He'll win or pull up. If he gets into a rhythm and gets round, Chicago Grey is the only horse well enough handicapped to have any chance of going by him imo. And probably will go by him, but not necessarily with a jockey on board.
The day I learned IC was out of the CGC with a sniffle was the day I started fancying him for this. To put in perspective I've only backed him to win a tenth of what I won when he won the Gold Cup but he is very well in. Typical deterioration from peak to 12yo is a stone, this computes well with the assertion he has improved a stone for his comeback run. He should be running off 171 or 172.
The top weight stat is totally a red herring by the way, 2 have won in last 40 years and when you think about it you only get 1 or 2 each year from a field of usually 36-40. You'd only expect one every 25-30 years statistically!
The top weight stat is totally a red herring by the way, 2 have won in last 40 years and when you think about it you only get 1 or 2 each year from a field of usually 36-40. You'd only expect one every 25-30 years statistically!
very often topweights/class horses run well in national-suny bay,hedgehunter for instance.the more i look at imperial commander the more i like him
Another point on top weights is that it used to be 12st then 11st 12 now is 11st 10. Since it was 11st 10 the only top weight to complete finished 3rd (Don't Push It). Is not a negative.
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