Grand National
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04 Apr 13
15:52
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Date Joined:
04 Oct 09
It's that kind of race! You can look at the form all you like, but the sweepstake approach is the best one for a race like that and i think that race (foxhunters) and the many outsiders that have won the national down the years proves this to follow the shorties long term is and can be folly and expensive!
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My record in the race says its not a lottery.
That 100/1 winner scored really high on JOCIS thread as well |
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Can you tell me what the following runners all have in common? At the time of writing they are the only horses in the field this particular thing applies to.
Harry the Viking Big Fella Thanks Saint Are Weird Al Forpadydeplasterer The Rainbow Hunter Ninetieth Minute Mr Moonshine |
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There are 40 runners in the national though marychain, not just the 8 you put up! Yes them 8 may need a lot more luck in running than most but they have a chance, same as any other IMO! Look at todays foxhunters, shambles of a start horses falling in front of other horses, and a 100/1 winner! Ok, there has not been a lot of 100/1 winners of the national in the last hundred years or so, but look at how many 16-40/1ers there has been and then look at the rates bookies 'chop' the prices just prior to the off, in average the 33/1 sp would have been a 50s shot that morning e.g.
I stand by this thread, anything can win! Just pick your few you want to run for you, keep stakes very small, just treat the race as a kind of bit of fun, simple as that! |
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I believe it is a lottery, i have my own thread setting out my reasons for thinking so. Not all the reasons mind you. Ok most winners of this race do fit certain trends if you like, stats etc are there to be broken rules and so on. But what you cannot get away from is the many winners starting prices, i have the opinion that a rag is a horse disproportionately priced compared to the fancied runners. So in a national where 10 runners are priced at between 10s and 20s, horses priced up beyond 20s are the rags and so not fancied given the nature of the race etc but this is not often the case looking at them.
I tried to explain a little more. I hope i have done so! |
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Yep 40 runners but only about 12 can win the race.
Its a profit making exersize just like Cheletenham. Apart from the festival,i bet my biggest stakes on the GN |
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I do very well on the cheltenham festival. But although i have hit the winner of the national many times, i do back about 12 horses mind you in it every year mind you also! There have been a few years i have missed it though. I base my selections on any course form (though the stats may tell you that as a win its poor, as a place its amazing), price and whether i think the horse might surprise! But i still think its a lottery!
Horses with course form will get my medium sized bets, horses that i think have a great chance on overall ability get my max bets and horses i think might surprise or may have some kind of story attached get the saver treatment with a hint of profit attached. I am not a massive stats, trends guy. I like the national for what it is. There has been and will be again many great stories on this great race! May i ask you to post what 12 horses you think warrant your hard earned? Mine are Jackpot is T43 Max bets - BKing, JTogether, Medium bets - OHO, Sbass, CGrey, Impcom, Sunny, C'station Saver bets with a hint of profit - R'bob, A'waining, R'Goldback, 4pady |
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Chances are, after the wife has picked her 3 or 4, i will end up with one or two more backed at massive prices by 4pm Saturday
 and as usual, i probably still miss the winner, such as, it's a lottery! |
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I dont back 12 horses m8
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Surely then you can't make good money on the national then unless your laying them all back on here? Such as the vast array in the nature of the winners of the race, unlike at the festival!
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I usually back a few at big prices when the entries come out that I think have got a chance. Few are down but I've got a few nice ones this year. National is the only race every year I consistently back a few antepost months in advance. Quite happy to forego a 12/1 winner etc on the day if I can get a decent run for my money at a big price and its a cracking feeling having backed the winner back in January when the horse may not have been in bookies markets at the time and 2 months later after 4.5 miles and 30 fences your one is still in the lead.
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I have between 3 and 6 runners
Less runners bigger the profit,had the 1-2-3 and 1-2 a few times over the years. I have had the winner 13 out the last 16 but recently Dont Push It and Neptune have done me,though by a nose last year,and had Cappa in 4th but i don't back each way. |
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I always as you prob aware do each way. Mine often finish 1-3-4 1-4-5 2-3-4 2-4-5 sort of thing! Last year i had the 2-3-4! I always take top price with books paying 5 places as well! And do try to put a few in 10p combination t/c's for that added bonus but never once got one of them up!
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@Seathestars you clearly didnt bother to actually read my post before you went off on one.
I wasnt claiming that the horses I listed had any greater or lesser chance than any other horses in the race. All I said was they had something in common and invited you to guess what. |
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My apologies marychain. No i cannot get what it is they all have in common? Could you be so kind as to put me out of my misery
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What is it
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not won beyond 3 miles ?
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The reason, that it is a lottery, is because, it is the longest horse race of the year, with more runners than any other race in the year. People sometimes think, that because a horse has won over 4 miles or 3m-6f, is that it will stay the extra 4f-6f. I will give you a case of a horse that stayed 4m-2f, but never stayed the extra 2f and that was a horse called Durham Edition, who regularly ran in the race and got placed, but never quite stayed 4m-4f and alot of this field won't. So Sunnyhill Boy at 16/1 may be a fair bet this year, as he stayed the trip, last year, wheras Seabass, who finished 3rd last year, was cruising 3f out and seemed not to stay and that may happen again this year. Ballabriggs is a winner of this race, but looks past his best. A few will stay, but alot won't and nobody knows, with it being the longest race of the season and until the race is run, we won't find out
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Hello Bud and Big Fella thanks were others who didn't quite last home.
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They are the only horses Bet £3.65 are top or joint top price for. Shortest = 40/1.
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good luck all
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if its a lottery, why not just back the 12 longest priced runners?
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1st 2nd 3rd and 5th long live the trends.
chicago grey my other one |
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yup the trends horses to the fore again
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Trends horses may have won! But an sp of 66/1 readily available at over 100s with books and 200s on here only goes to prove
THE RACE IS A LOTTERY!!! I mean, out of the 40 runners, how many of them meet the so called 'trends' and apart from goldcupwinner and very fair play to him, how many of you had him backed |
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Auroras Encore had a typical grand national winning profile m8,i don't think its a lottery.
My bet was matched on the 1st of Feb at 163/1.I backed 4 all to win the same total T43,Auroras,Cappa,Rare Bob,with a bit less off Chicago,and Always Waining who i backed this morning for a bit less again.I also had 10 places Any Currency,Always Waining and 4 places Auroras and Cappa There are millions of stats,depends how literal you take them. I myself love a horse placed in a Welsh/Scots/English/Irish national,won at at least 3 mile,won a chase of at least 17k,and aimed for the race. Take those stats into next season and you have base to work from.These Kinds of horses have been thin on the ground the last three years.. The grand national guides website blog,is all mainly trends/profile based stuff,take a look there is some excellent work,,much like the great stuff Joci and Judo do on here. |
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on thursday i went through every runner and all i checked was can they win on good and can they stay 4 mile,i narrowed the 40 down to 14 ,in this 14 was 1st,3rd,4th,5th.
i backed 6 of the 14 (2 placed)i didnt back the winner due to lack of recent form. it isnt a lottery but its hard to find the winner as most races you can narrow down to 5/6 not 14. |
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I got it down to 4 and got first and second, so clearly it is not a lottery
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SEATHESTARS....NO1 07 Apr 13 01:28 Joined: 04 Oct 09 | Topic/replies: 2,413 | Blogger: SEATHESTARS....NO1's blog
Trends horses may have won! But an sp of 66/1 readily available at over 100s with books and 200s on here only goes to prove THE RACE IS A LOTTERY!!! This is a false conclusion. Just because people decided not to back the horse doesn't mean the race was a lottery. It means the bettors did not assess the horses chances accurately. Seems obvious but he had been beaten a head off 6lb higher in the Scottish National less than 12 months ago. Punters seemingly ignored this fact. We have to remember that prices are only a reflection of collective opinion and not of the true chances. Others were massively under priced compared to their true chance like SHB who was always going to struggle off 10lb higher and a bad prep yet was only 32 or something on here. |
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test
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whomever started this post doesn't know a thing about horse racing. it's a massively complicated handicap chase with very specific conditions, but always good fun to try and work it out. big occasion this year i think.
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@harino virtual racing B.O won the Midlands version I recall for Josh and his syndicate. My hunch is the horse needs it fairly soft.
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http://sports.betfair.com/?optout=true
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oops sorry wrong thread
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SEATHESTARS....NO1 07 Apr 13 01:28
Trends horses may have won! But an sp of 66/1 readily available at over 100s with books and 200s on here only goes to prove THE RACE IS A LOTTERY!!! Only for losers like you ! |