Grand National
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04 Apr 13
14:10
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Date Joined:
23 Jun 01
Weight:- "You can't carry a big weight round the national,no winner had carried more than 10-12(Hedgehunter apart) since Rhyme N Reason in 1988.That is except for the last 4 years when all of the winners have carried 11st or more.
French Breds:- "Put a line through all french breds they simply don't get home over 4m4f" Who comes up with this pi5h, ok they hadn't won a Grand National since 1909 until mon mome(2009) but FR breds had won other nationals and had placed form in the national itself, then of course just to stick another two fingers up, Neptune Collonges becomes the second french bred winner in 4 years.
Greys:- Every year ...."bidding to become the first grey since Nicolaus silver in 1963 to win".I get it because they are a different colour they don't run as fast, right ?That is until last year when Neptune Collonges became the first grey since Nicolaus Silver in 1963 to win.
Age:- since 1970 9 year olds have the best record, except 10 year olds have won 4 of the last 6.Seriously wtf has the horses age have anything to do with it.Surely the ability,form,well being of the individual has 100x more importance than a horses age.(Hello Bud 14 years old won the becher).If you fancy a 12 year old don't let these stat obsessed pundits put you off.
oh btw 11 year old's have won 8 times in the lat 32 years.
Price:- since 1970 the winner has been 16/1 or under on 29 occasions.Given how bad the bookmakers bet, that is likely to cover over a third of the field.I guess then if you have backed a horse at 18/1 you need it to shorten to 16/1 for it to have a better chance.Another heap o sheight imho.
Fwiw there are a million other stats spouted each and every year.The national is a lottery and luck will play a part and if you think that using stats will get you closer to the winner then well you better have four selections.
Recommendations
2pts e/w Chicago Grey
1pt e/w Teaforthree
0.5pt e/w Always waining
Hope this helps
French Breds:- "Put a line through all french breds they simply don't get home over 4m4f" Who comes up with this pi5h, ok they hadn't won a Grand National since 1909 until mon mome(2009) but FR breds had won other nationals and had placed form in the national itself, then of course just to stick another two fingers up, Neptune Collonges becomes the second french bred winner in 4 years.
Greys:- Every year ...."bidding to become the first grey since Nicolaus silver in 1963 to win".I get it because they are a different colour they don't run as fast, right ?That is until last year when Neptune Collonges became the first grey since Nicolaus Silver in 1963 to win.
Age:- since 1970 9 year olds have the best record, except 10 year olds have won 4 of the last 6.Seriously wtf has the horses age have anything to do with it.Surely the ability,form,well being of the individual has 100x more importance than a horses age.(Hello Bud 14 years old won the becher).If you fancy a 12 year old don't let these stat obsessed pundits put you off.
oh btw 11 year old's have won 8 times in the lat 32 years.
Price:- since 1970 the winner has been 16/1 or under on 29 occasions.Given how bad the bookmakers bet, that is likely to cover over a third of the field.I guess then if you have backed a horse at 18/1 you need it to shorten to 16/1 for it to have a better chance.Another heap o sheight imho.
Fwiw there are a million other stats spouted each and every year.The national is a lottery and luck will play a part and if you think that using stats will get you closer to the winner then well you better have four selections.
Recommendations
2pts e/w Chicago Grey
1pt e/w Teaforthree
0.5pt e/w Always waining
Hope this helps
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Replies: 30
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WHO CARES
YOU STUPID TW@T |
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You seem very angry jasey, have you spent the last week trawling the stats ?
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Not angry your post is pathetic.
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Can't be anymore pathetic than posting "who cares you tw@t" I hear kids say who cares maybe even the odd jeremy kyle guest.
Then to start name calling on the back of a post another, keyboard ninja earns his blackbelt |
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Yes your right no need for the insult.
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Interesting post biscar,i have 2pts e/w Chicago Grey.
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Stats or not stats there is no chance Always Waining is going to stay the National trip.
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a fair point well made imo
good luck with your selections |
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its just lazy punting by lazy punters
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Whats lazy?
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dismissing half the field because they dont fit a certain criteria
appraise each on its individual merits |
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Look at the work Paul Jones does,see the results.
Then tell me its lazy,because its the opposite. Lazy is a chump opening a newspaper and just picking a horse Clueless statements on here |
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It's not lazy but some of it is misguided. I rarely use trends or stats just applied to a particular race, I profile horses instead following progressive horses up the ladder and predicting repeat wins by horses that win races with particular factors in place. Some stats are very useful and apply to multiple races of the same type, how many races and wins a horse has can be particularly a guide to finding unexposed horses in most races, or the opposite sufficiently experienced horses for a National.
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Agree with that Thieves.The stuff the OP wtites about frech breds and greys and price is utter bollox
The OP says "its a lottery". I find punters who are not very good,belive that. I would love to know the process Biscar went through and what month he started selecting his fancys. |
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I'm beginning to wonder if you have read my original post jasey
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Maybe you are right.
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jasey
04 Apr 13 18:17 Joined: 22 Jul 08 | Topic/replies: 622 | Blogger: jasey's blog Agree with that Thieves.The stuff the OP wtites about frech breds and greys and price is utter bollox The OP says "its a lottery". I find punters who are not very good,belive that. I would love to know the process Biscar went through and what month he started selecting his fancys. I believe it is a lottery, i have my own thread setting out my reasons for thinking so. Not all the reasons mind you. Ok most winners of this race do fit certain trends if you like, stats etc are there to be broken rules and so on. But what you cannot get away from is the many winners starting prices, i have the opinion that a rag is a horse disproportionately priced compared to the fancied runners. So in a national where 10 runners are priced at between 10s and 20s, horses priced up beyond 20s are the rags and so not fancied given the nature of the race etc but this is not often the case looking at them. I tried to explain a little more. I hope i have done so! |
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your being kind sayin its misguided
its not its lazy Paul Jones writes a nice pamphlet but i would rather make a profit |
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Andy
Thats why he flagged up 15 feastival winners. |
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Andy
On another thread you big up saint aire by quoting a few stats. |
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he flagged up 15 festival winners from how many selections?
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Do you no the answer?
He puts up two or three in graded races and 4 or 5 in handicaps. Its a trends service,some of the races have only be running a few years so little to go on in those. I am trying to find the figure,its a level stakes profit anyway. His Ante post sevice did not do that well,18.5 points profit if having Chapagne fever nrnb |
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he had 2 winners our connor at 14-1
and i think champagne fever but got plenty of price edges along the way he was pleased anyway |
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Paul Jones flagged up 93 selections for Cheltenham and returned 15 winners.
A level stakes win only bet on all 93 would have returned approx 121 points |
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Back to the original post.
Does anyone ever still come out with - or worse still, hang their hat on - the 'you need a 2.5 mile horse to win the Grand National?' Never did understand that one. |
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Apologies, win returns approx 105.5 points
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Does anyone ever still come out with - or worse still, hang their hat on - the 'you need a 2.5 mile horse to win the Grand National?'
I think Nicky Henderson may be the only one left that still needs convincing, Roger. May also explain why it took so long for him to win a Gold Cup..... |
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Truth! Bobs Worth must have the potential to stay 6 miles if Henderson can get him to stay 3m 2f
 Also took him a couple of years to drain the stamina out of Long Run :) |
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Where does one find this Paul Jones fella on tinternet
 I have a good friend called Paul Jones, no seriously i do, but am pretty sure it aint him lol, he aint into horse racing lol and works for a housing association as lettings manager, oh and votes Labour! |
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A site called Bettrends,you would order his festival betting guide and online updates from weatherbys shop.
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