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One more GN query

charlieecho

02 Apr 13 14:56

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Date Joined: 13 Sep 10

| Topic/replies: 37 | Blogger: charlieecho's blog

Thanks to the answers from my previous post.

I now know that its 11 years since a non hcap winner won the GN and horses run well year after year without winning regularly.

Obviously I'm trying to narrow this field down to a manageable list.
So one more question I need answering please.

My friend tells me that the last 10 winners had all run at least 3 times that season.

If this is correct should I rule out horses who haven't run 3 times? And what was the last horse to win without running 3 times at least?

Thanks again to the knowledgeable forumites who help.

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Replies: 4

By:

Steamship When: 02 Apr 13 15:14

I would not rule them out Mely Moss went very close in 2000.
Here is a system I was told about when I was young and it is back horses with 3rd and 4th letters the same if they have 2 names then follow it for the second name as well. Guess what last year it got the forecast. Got the winner the year before that as well.

By:

thieveslikeus When: 02 Apr 13 15:24

Kind of depends on the horse too, a horse who is best fresh shouldn't be ignored IMO.

By:

jasey When: 02 Apr 13 19:32

The number of runs won't stop a horse winning,but a fitness angle is a better way to look at it.
State of play was a master at placing off just one or two runs

By:

BarryM When: 03 Apr 13 21:06

I wouldn't rule them out. It's become quite popular to train specifically for the race and several have had light campaigns to arrive here fresh. Notably the favourite On His Own, who has only run once. That was always the plan, to preserve his handicap mark.

Whether it was a good plan, time will tell. But it's follow to rule any horse out because of a statistic. The nature of the race has changed a lot over the years.