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JOCI Club
30 Mar 13 20:06
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 23,205 | Blogger: JOCI Club's blog
Given there's no forum covering Aintree, here's as good a place as anywhere.

Will be posting up my trend ratings for the key (not all) races at the forthcoming Aintree Festival.
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Report JOCI Club March 30, 2013 8:13 PM GMT
Aintree Hurdle

Preliminary ratings of the existing field:

Zarkandar 85%
Countrywide Flame 71%
Prospect Wells 70%
The New One 70%
Grandouet 66%
Oscar Whisky 60%
Cinders And Ashes 57%
Binocular 56%
Raya Star 46%
Thousand Stars 41%
Mad Moose 37%
Saphir River 32%
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! April 1, 2013 11:40 AM BST
Good work joci your threads are amongst the best on here. Hope you win plenty.
Report GoldCupWinner April 2, 2013 3:59 PM BST
Are you doing the Red Rum chase? My inital impressions are that Edgardo Sol could well win this again given how easily he won last year. Also think Stagecoach Pearl could be a live one given he's won from higher marks and has agood Aintree record. He probably went off too fast over a trip too far here in October. Hoping the btter ground will see a return to form.
Report Bob Kelso April 2, 2013 4:16 PM BST
I like the look of West with the wind in that race. Well handicapped and likes this time of year on good ground
Report JOCI Club April 2, 2013 8:24 PM BST
Yes, the Red Rum Chase will be coming under scrutiny.
Report JOCI Club April 2, 2013 9:33 PM BST
Betfred Bowl

Preliminary ratings of the existing field:


Quito De La Roque    84%
Silviniaco Conti    73%

First Lieutenant    70%
Wayward Prince    63%
Cape Tribulation    62%
Menorah    60%
The Giant Bolster    60%
Whodoyouthink    28%
Report JOCI Club April 2, 2013 9:41 PM BST
Aintree Hurdle

Latest ratings following withdrawals:

Zarkandar    85%
Countrywide Flame    71%
The New One    70%
Grandouet    66%
Prospect Wells    61%
Oscar Whisky    60%
Raya Star    46%
Thousand Stars    41%
Saphir River    32%
Report JOCI Club April 2, 2013 11:52 PM BST
Red Rum Handicap Chase

Preliminary ratings of the existing field:

Viva Colonia20     87%
Rebel Rebellion26     76%

Marshal Zhukov20     72%
Drumshambo20     72%
Kid Cassidy20     71%
15 Pires27F     70%
Astracad110     67%
12 Anquetta20     67%
14 Ballygarvey40     67%
4 Ciceron26     66%
3 Kie35     65%
9 Silver Roque34     63%
13 Far Away So Close60     63%
8 Donnas Palm130     63%
6 Swift Arrow60     62%
Toubab33     60%
Shooters Wood20     60%
Kumbeshwar20     57%
11 Kings Grey96     55%
7 Eastlake61     55%
Pepite Rose33     53%
1 Absolutlyfantastic55F     52%
Edgardo Sol20     52%
Stagecoach Pearl20     52%
Petit Robin20     50%
Dan Breen20     47%
10 Echo Bob116     46%
Tanks For That20     41%
West With The Wind124     40%
2 Barneys Honour17     39%
Wishfull Thinking22     36%
Oiseau De Nuit20     33%
5 Nozic41     23%

A few more factors to be considered (whether there will be a rise in weights / likely SPs etc), but this is what I'm getting at this point. Clear leader in Viva Colonia.
Report runandskip April 3, 2013 12:00 AM BST
how does Planet Of Sound come out in the Topham, really fancy it to run a big race
Report GoldCupWinner April 3, 2013 12:04 AM BST
Cheers. I'm guessing novices have a good record judging by the list. Similar to at Cheltenham.
Report JOCI Club April 3, 2013 12:04 AM BST
Planet Of Sound comes out around 'mid-table' for the Topham at 61%, which is some distance behind my top rated horse, Tartak on 88%.

Not final figures yet though, but a decent indication.
Report JOCI Club April 3, 2013 12:06 AM BST
Yes, novice chasers havea decent record in the Red Rum.
Report runandskip April 3, 2013 12:14 AM BST
thanks JOCI
Report JOCI Club April 3, 2013 9:08 PM BST
Matalan Anniversary 4YO Novices’ Hurdle


Ruacana    60%
Rolling Star    57%

Flaxen Flare    53%
L´Unique    51%
Irish Saint    50%
Hefner    46%
Vasco Du Ronceray    44%
Runswick Royal    44%
Zamdy Man    39%
Bob´s World    31%

Selections: Ruacana @ 12.5 & Rolling Star @ 3.8
Report JOCI Club April 3, 2013 9:17 PM BST
Betfred Bowl Steeplechase


Quito De La Roque     92%
Silviniaco Conti     80%
First Lieutenant     78%
Cape Tribulation     69%
The Giant Bolster     68%
Wayward Prince    62%
Menorah     61%
Whodoyouthink     31%


Selections: Quito De La Roque @ 12 & Silviniaco Conti @ 2
Report JOCI Club April 3, 2013 9:21 PM BST
John Smith's Aintree Hurdle


Zarkandar    85%
Countrywide Flame     71%
The New One     70%
Grandouet     66%
Prospect Wells     61%
Oscar Whisky     60%
Raya Star     46%
Thousand Stars     41%
Saphir River     32%

Selections: Zarkandar @ 6.4 & Countrywide Flame @ 5.5
Report JOCI Club April 3, 2013 9:47 PM BST
Foxhunters

Gwanako27     79%
Cottage Oak20     76%

Offshore Account13     75%
Gentle George14     73%
Tartan Snow18     73%
Warne40     72%
Bold Addition25     71%
Silver Story78     65%
Silverburn25     61%
Battlefront40     60%
Rebel Du Maquis24     60%
Mourne Paddy19     59%
Earth Dream20     55%
Cool Friend35     54%
Kildonnan18     52%
Silver Adonis32P     49%
Cloudy Lane47     48%
Defying Gravity32P     40%
Sizing America19P     40%
Harps Counsel29     34%
Rash Move27     34%
Boxer Georg26     33%
Emergency Cover18P     33%
Keenan´s Future20     30%
Fairwood Present21     27%

Selections: Gwanako @ 6.4 & Cottage Oak @ 8.4
Report JOCI Club April 3, 2013 11:46 PM BST
Red Rum Chase

Kid Cassidy20     81%
Viva Colonia20     80%
Rebel Rebellion26     77%
Astracad110     70%
3 Kie35     70%
4 Ciceron26     70%
Toubab33     65%
15 Pires27F     64%
12 Anquetta20     61%
9 Silver Roque34     60%
8 Donnas Palm130     60%
11 Kings Grey96     59%
10 Echo Bob116     48%
Tanks For That20     46%
Stagecoach Pearl20     41%
Oiseau De Nuit20     39%
West With The Wind124     38%
5 Nozic41     30%

Selections: Kid Cassidy @ 8.4, Viva Colonia @ 19.5 & Rebel Rebellion @ 8.6
Report JOCI Club April 4, 2013 12:08 AM BST
Aintree Day 1 Summary

2:00 Ruacana & Rolling Star
2:30 Quito De La Roque & Silviniaco Conti
3:05 Zarkandar & Countrywide Flame
3:40 Gwanako & Cottage Oak
4:15 Kid Cassidy & Viva Colonia & Rebel Rebellion

Own (non trend) fancies for last 2 races:

4:40 Captain Conan
5:25 Ericht
Report JOCI Club April 4, 2013 12:25 AM BST
Melling Chase

Sprinter Sacre    81%
Cue Card 75%

Flemenstar      66%
For Non Stop      60%
Finian´s Rainbow      43%
Mad Moose     43%

Selections: Sprinter Sacre @ 1.35 and reverse forecast Sprinter Sacre / Cue Card
Report GoldCupWinner April 4, 2013 9:52 AM BST
I strongly fancy Captain Conan and Ericht was my after seeing the Battle group price. Hopefully a good day for us!
Report shockster April 4, 2013 10:02 AM BST
If you're correct Joci, I'm going to have a bad day!!!!!
Report GoldCupWinner April 4, 2013 3:51 PM BST
Tartan Snow was quite high for a 100/1 shot!
Report GoldCupWinner April 4, 2013 3:53 PM BST
Cottage Oak actually ran very well also given how much he lost at the start.
Report Rankine April 4, 2013 6:18 PM BST
Think this thread just proves trends are bollox LaughLaugh
Report jasey April 4, 2013 6:20 PM BST
Why come on here then?
Report Rankine April 4, 2013 6:22 PM BST
I read the thread to see how much bollox it actually was, now I know its complete bollox LaughLaugh
Report jasey April 4, 2013 6:54 PM BST
I am sick off these kind of morons
Report Rankine April 4, 2013 7:12 PM BST
Done your money have you jasey Laugh
Report Tucho April 4, 2013 7:37 PM BST
joci went through the card at cheltenham on day 1, and had loads of winners the other days, i'm sure he's in significant profit since he's started posting these picks

don't like it, don't read, but plenty of us do find his work interesting
Report horse9 April 4, 2013 8:15 PM BST
Tucho agreed - and he did pull Zarkandar out today so didn't draw a complete blank.
I'll always respect anyone who puts in the effort to produce a strategy and then put their views out there for us to read
Report marychain1 April 4, 2013 8:26 PM BST
I had a read of this fred, and JOCI kindly sent me his stats.

He will be well up over time by putting in this work. The odd one will come from nowhere but if there's any 100& foolproof betting strategy it hasnt been found by anyone on this forum.
Report jasey April 4, 2013 9:15 PM BST
Best just to ignore idiots like Rankine
Report Meadow X1 April 4, 2013 10:59 PM BST
Joci (and judo).

I am not a major punter (far from it!) but I really enjoy and appreciate the work you have put in when you post your analysis here.  Please be assured (and I am sure I speak for the vast majority) that your posts are eagerly looked forward to. Thank you.
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 12:13 AM BST
An ok, but not a great day today. Managed to get 2 winners, with Zarkandar coming up trumps, and Captain Conan posting an impressive win.

A couple of shock wins from my perspective (Oiseau de Nuit for example) and my 4th top rated winning the Foxhunters at 100/1 (but going unbacked). Them's the breaks.

Good luck tomorrow!
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 12:58 AM BST
Top Novices Hurdle

Art Of Logistics37     92%
Zuider Zee28     92%
Brick Red34     70%
Forgotten Voice41     59%
My Tent Or Yours24     41%

Selection: Art of Logistics @ 29 & Zuider Zee @ 14
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 1:01 AM BST
Mildmay

Rocky Creek48     88%
Dynaste22     86%
Vino Griego22     69%
Super Duty22     62%
Third Intention22     52%
Sea Of Thunder139     45%

Selection: Rocky Creek
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 1:03 AM BST
Melling Chase

Sprinter Sacre23     81%
Cue Card22     75%
Flemenstar55     66%
For Non Stop22     60%
Finian´s Rainbow48     43%
Mad Moose22     43%
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 1:06 AM BST
Topham Chase

Tartak22     88%
Hector´s Choice22     79%

Fistral Beach357     77%
Gonebeyondrecall201     76%
Chance Du Roy42     75%
Arctic Ben35     74%
Montoya´s Son57     74%
Gus Macrae21     71%
Giorgio Quercus22     71%
Gullible Gordon90     69%
Pacha Du Polder34     67%
Renard21     67%
Little Josh42     66%
Gansey62     66%
Walkon22     61%
Dashing George42     61%
Jamsie Hall140     59%
Mister First29     59%
Dunowen Point41     59%
Last Time D´Albain99     56%
Criqtonic37     54%
Bennys Mist14     54%
Tranquil Sea57     54%
Billy Cuckoo31     52%
There´s No Panic27     51%
Triolo D´Alene90     51%
Sizing Santiago69     51%
State Benefit56     50%
Regal D´Estruval20     48%
Lambro36     47%
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 1:12 AM BST
Sefton


At Fishers Cross21     100%
Master Of The Sea23     89%
Our Vinnie21     74%
Road To Riches117     70%
8 Uxizandre26     70%
2 Kris Cross27     70%
Yesyoucan46     68%
5 Imperial Leader27     56%
Gevrey Chambertin21     55%
Just A Par54     52%
3 Buachaill Alainn112     41%

Selection: At Fishers Cross
@ 2.6
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 1:15 AM BST
4:50 Salubrious
5:25 Molly's A Diva
Report thieveslikeus April 5, 2013 4:47 AM BST
Tip for arrogant rude ****s:   If it says "Trends Analysis" in the topic title and you don't like reading trends analysis type of stuff, DON'T CLICK ON IT!  No need to be so damned rude either, if you happen upon similar analysis by accident just move on instead of acting like knuckle-draggers. 

Joci, your posts and Judo's are the first I look for when I come on here, thanks again for sharing your efforts.
Report thieveslikeus April 5, 2013 5:23 AM BST
If anyone was wondering, it said t -osse-rs
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 6:42 AM BST
I'm not bothered by the criticism. The trends have their uses in pinpointing the horses that are statistically the most likely winners, but it's not foolproof by any means. It can be useful sometimes in throwing up horses that are largely unconsidered in the market. I'll give Golden Chieftain and Medinas (from Cheltenham) as two such examples that came out top of the ratings. Also, horses like Divine Intavention (2nd at 50/1 in Cheltenham Foxhunters) and Tartan Snow in the Aintree Foxhunters (4th top rated and won at 100/1 - though sadly unbacked by me).

However, for every example like those above, you'll get your Oiseau de Nuit type results (close to being my lowest rated in that race).

Let's hope for a few more winners today.
Report Ilnamar April 5, 2013 8:11 AM BST
When you're consistently backing horses at double figure prices you don't need a high strike rate.  And the days when hit 2 or 3 at decent prices will more than make up for the occasional duck egg.
Report horse9 April 5, 2013 11:54 AM BST
Joci - interesting At Fishers Cross analysis (100%), 4 of the last 5 winners of this race bypassed Cheltenham.
I was very keen on Our Vinnie but is now a NR
Report Chevron April 5, 2013 4:29 PM BST
landed me a nice trble. Thanks JOCI.
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 7:38 PM BST
Nice one - got another couple of winners today and the forecast in the Melling Chase. In fact I bet as a tricast Sprinter- Cue Card-Flemenstar which came in but when I went to collect was told it wasnt a tricast race and only got paid on the forecast.
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 9:12 PM BST
Mersey Novices Hurdle

Up And Go     88%
Dodging Bullets    72%
Eduard     72%
Seefood     69%
Utopie Des Bordes     57%
Morning Royalty     46%
Ubak     40%
Vasco D´Ycy     13%

Selection: Up And Go @ 2.88
Report Ibrahima Sonko April 5, 2013 9:20 PM BST
Great stuff Joci

I reckon you should add the price into the equation, would be interesting to see.

ps i know we can do it.
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 9:23 PM BST
Can you clarify what you mean regarding the price?
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 9:28 PM BST
Maghull Novices Chase

Alderwood 80%
Overturn 71%
Baily Green 69%
Sire De Grugy 62%
Marshal Zhukov 52%
Viva Colonia 41%
Special Tiara 31%

Selection: Alderwood @ 3.45
Report Ibrahima Sonko April 5, 2013 9:29 PM BST
your % times the odds, ie 88%  x 1.88. (up&go)

its probably a bad idea but it might show some outsiders but will ruin the favs.

forget it.
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 9:45 PM BST
Liverpool Hurdle

Solwhit 92%
Celestial Halo 61%
Smad Place 60%
Grands Crus 42%
Holywell 40%
Medinas 40%
Attaglance 37%
American Spin 31%
Bear´s Affair 28%
Won In The Dark 22%
Any Given Day 11%
Oscara Dara 11%
African Gold 10%

Selection: Solwhit @ 3.45

Interesting that Solwhit is streets ahead on the ratings.
Report JOCI Club April 5, 2013 9:57 PM BST
The Grand National

Seabass42     83%
Chicago Grey46     79%
Balthazar King141     75%
Teaforthree49     74%
Sunnyhillboy84     74%
Across The Bay49     74%

Ballabriggs35     72%
On His Own46     72%
Colbert Station62     70%
Roberto Goldback42     68%
Cappa Bleu49     68%
Joncol56     68%
Imperial Commander70     66%
Rare Bob27     65%
Big Fella Thanks35     64%
Oscar Time27     64%
Forpadydeplasterer34     60%
Always Waining28     60%
Quel Esprit56     59%
Treacle21    58%
Weird Al56     58%
Becauseicouldntsee23     56%
Auroras Encore35     56%
What A Friend42     56%
Any Currency23     55%
Swing Bill23     54%
Tatenen22     52%
Mumbles Head105     52%
Mr Moonshine35     51%
Saint Are23     50%
Major Malarkey21    50%
The Rainbow Hunter49     49%
Viking Blond49     46%
Join Together35     45%
Ninetieth Minute21    39%
Tarquinius27     37%
Quiscover Fontaine37     36%
Soll28     36%
Harry The Viking23     35%
Lost Glory175     34%

Have backed several in the race:

Seabass @ 15
Chicago Grey @ 20
Sunnyhillboy @ 27
Across The Bay @ 36 (now 50 Blush)
Rare Bob @ 44

Need to look at Teaforthree & Balthazar King tomorrow, and will probably have something on them too.
Report alleged22 April 5, 2013 11:20 PM BST
Interesting that Solwhit is streets ahead on the ratings.

not really when you think about it Wink

agree with alderwood i,ll be max betting on it Cool
Report mickey April 5, 2013 11:47 PM BST
hope your rite about alderwood mate
Report GoldCupWinner April 6, 2013 12:05 AM BST
African Gold 10% lol, I strongly fancy that too. Really think the novices are good this year and the 3 mile older brigade are not so good.
Report JOCI Club April 6, 2013 1:53 AM BST
alleged22 05 Apr 13 23:20 
Interesting that Solwhit is streets ahead on the ratings.

not really when you think about it Wink

agree with alderwood i,ll be max betting on it Cool


It's unusul to get ahorse so far ahead of the rest on trends...that's all I was saying. Might not win of course. At Fishers Cross was a 100% trends horse and won, Zarkandar was 85% and well clear, but neither had as big a gap between themselves and the next highest rated compared with Solwhit.

Let the trends make a mug of me.
Report HaylingBilly April 6, 2013 9:43 AM BST
JOCI - I am a trends fan and I really appreciate your data. I use it all the time as guidance to shorten my short lists and has served me well. One of my other "rules" is I am a big Jonjo fan in 3m+ Handicap Chases so the fact you have LOST GLORY bottom of your trends causes me angst and gives me a tough decision to make.  I am going with Jonjo over Joci for this one. Good luck mate. And keep them stats coming and ignore the negative naysayers. Cheers.
Report JOCI Club April 6, 2013 2:59 PM BST
Liverpool Hurdle

Solwhit 92%
Celestial Halo 61%
Smad Place 60%
Grands Crus 42%
Holywell 40%
Medinas 40%
Attaglance 37%
American Spin 31%
Bear´s Affair 28%
Won In The Dark 22%
Any Given Day 11%
Oscara Dara 11%
African Gold 10%

Selection: Solwhit @ 3.45

Interesting that Solwhit is streets ahead on the ratings.


And din't he win like it! Cool
Report Chevron April 6, 2013 3:20 PM BST
boooooooommmmmmmmmmm
Report Chevron April 6, 2013 3:21 PM BST
mcains horses so out of form
Report JOCI Club April 6, 2013 3:22 PM BST
Trends took a hammering on the first 2 races though. Blush
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