JOCI Club's Aintree Festival Trends Analysis

Aintree Hurdle

Preliminary ratings of the existing field:

Zarkandar 85%
Countrywide Flame 71%
Prospect Wells 70%
The New One 70%
Grandouet 66%
Oscar Whisky 60%
Cinders And Ashes 57%
Binocular 56%
Raya Star 46%
Thousand Stars 41%
Mad Moose 37%
Saphir River 32%

Good work joci your threads are amongst the best on here. Hope you win plenty.

Are you doing the Red Rum chase? My inital impressions are that Edgardo Sol could well win this again given how easily he won last year. Also think Stagecoach Pearl could be a live one given he's won from higher marks and has agood Aintree record. He probably went off too fast over a trip too far here in October. Hoping the btter ground will see a return to form.

I like the look of West with the wind in that race. Well handicapped and likes this time of year on good ground

Yes, the Red Rum Chase will be coming under scrutiny.

Betfred Bowl

Preliminary ratings of the existing field:


Quito De La Roque    84%
Silviniaco Conti    73%
First Lieutenant    70%
Wayward Prince    63%
Cape Tribulation    62%
Menorah    60%
The Giant Bolster    60%
Whodoyouthink    28%

Aintree Hurdle

Latest ratings following withdrawals:

Zarkandar    85%
Countrywide Flame    71%
The New One    70%
Grandouet    66%
Prospect Wells    61%
Oscar Whisky    60%
Raya Star    46%
Thousand Stars    41%
Saphir River    32%

Red Rum Handicap Chase

Preliminary ratings of the existing field:

Viva Colonia20     87%
Rebel Rebellion26     76%
Marshal Zhukov20     72%
Drumshambo20     72%
Kid Cassidy20     71%
15 Pires27F     70%
Astracad110     67%
12 Anquetta20     67%
14 Ballygarvey40     67%
4 Ciceron26     66%
3 Kie35     65%
9 Silver Roque34     63%
13 Far Away So Close60     63%
8 Donnas Palm130     63%
6 Swift Arrow60     62%
Toubab33     60%
Shooters Wood20     60%
Kumbeshwar20     57%
11 Kings Grey96     55%
7 Eastlake61     55%
Pepite Rose33     53%
1 Absolutlyfantastic55F     52%
Edgardo Sol20     52%
Stagecoach Pearl20     52%
Petit Robin20     50%
Dan Breen20     47%
10 Echo Bob116     46%
Tanks For That20     41%
West With The Wind124     40%
2 Barneys Honour17     39%
Wishfull Thinking22     36%
Oiseau De Nuit20     33%
5 Nozic41     23%

A few more factors to be considered (whether there will be a rise in weights / likely SPs etc), but this is what I'm getting at this point. Clear leader in Viva Colonia.

how does Planet Of Sound come out in the Topham, really fancy it to run a big race

Cheers. I'm guessing novices have a good record judging by the list. Similar to at Cheltenham.

Planet Of Sound comes out around 'mid-table' for the Topham at 61%, which is some distance behind my top rated horse, Tartak on 88%.

Not final figures yet though, but a decent indication.

Yes, novice chasers havea decent record in the Red Rum.

thanks JOCI

Matalan Anniversary 4YO Novices’ Hurdle


Ruacana    60%
Rolling Star    57%
Flaxen Flare    53%
L´Unique    51%
Irish Saint    50%
Hefner    46%
Vasco Du Ronceray    44%
Runswick Royal    44%
Zamdy Man    39%
Bob´s World    31%

Selections: Ruacana @ 12.5 & Rolling Star @ 3.8

Betfred Bowl Steeplechase


Quito De La Roque     92%
Silviniaco Conti     80%
First Lieutenant     78%
Cape Tribulation     69%
The Giant Bolster     68%
Wayward Prince    62%
Menorah     61%
Whodoyouthink     31%


Selections: Quito De La Roque @ 12 & Silviniaco Conti @ 2

John Smith's Aintree Hurdle


Zarkandar    85%
Countrywide Flame     71%
The New One     70%
Grandouet     66%
Prospect Wells     61%
Oscar Whisky     60%
Raya Star     46%
Thousand Stars     41%
Saphir River     32%

Selections: Zarkandar @ 6.4 & Countrywide Flame @ 5.5

Foxhunters

Gwanako27     79%
Cottage Oak20     76%
Offshore Account13     75%
Gentle George14     73%
Tartan Snow18     73%
Warne40     72%
Bold Addition25     71%
Silver Story78     65%
Silverburn25     61%
Battlefront40     60%
Rebel Du Maquis24     60%
Mourne Paddy19     59%
Earth Dream20     55%
Cool Friend35     54%
Kildonnan18     52%
Silver Adonis32P     49%
Cloudy Lane47     48%
Defying Gravity32P     40%
Sizing America19P     40%
Harps Counsel29     34%
Rash Move27     34%
Boxer Georg26     33%
Emergency Cover18P     33%
Keenan´s Future20     30%
Fairwood Present21     27%

Selections: Gwanako @ 6.4 & Cottage Oak @ 8.4

Red Rum Chase

Kid Cassidy20     81%
Viva Colonia20     80%
Rebel Rebellion26     77%
Astracad110     70%
3 Kie35     70%
4 Ciceron26     70%
Toubab33     65%
15 Pires27F     64%
12 Anquetta20     61%
9 Silver Roque34     60%
8 Donnas Palm130     60%
11 Kings Grey96     59%
10 Echo Bob116     48%
Tanks For That20     46%
Stagecoach Pearl20     41%
Oiseau De Nuit20     39%
West With The Wind124     38%
5 Nozic41     30%

Selections: Kid Cassidy @ 8.4, Viva Colonia @ 19.5 & Rebel Rebellion @ 8.6

Aintree Day 1 Summary

2:00 Ruacana & Rolling Star
2:30 Quito De La Roque & Silviniaco Conti
3:05 Zarkandar & Countrywide Flame
3:40 Gwanako & Cottage Oak
4:15 Kid Cassidy & Viva Colonia & Rebel Rebellion

Own (non trend) fancies for last 2 races:

4:40 Captain Conan
5:25 Ericht

Melling Chase

Sprinter Sacre    81%
Cue Card 75%
Flemenstar      66%
For Non Stop      60%
Finian´s Rainbow      43%
Mad Moose     43%

Selections: Sprinter Sacre @ 1.35 and reverse forecast Sprinter Sacre / Cue Card

I strongly fancy Captain Conan and Ericht was my after seeing the Battle group price. Hopefully a good day for us!

If you're correct Joci, I'm going to have a bad day!!!!!

Tartan Snow was quite high for a 100/1 shot!

Cottage Oak actually ran very well also given how much he lost at the start.

Think this thread just proves trends are bollox

Why come on here then?

I read the thread to see how much bollox it actually was, now I know its complete bollox

I am sick off these kind of morons

Done your money have you jasey

joci went through the card at cheltenham on day 1, and had loads of winners the other days, i'm sure he's in significant profit since he's started posting these picks

don't like it, don't read, but plenty of us do find his work interesting

Tucho agreed - and he did pull Zarkandar out today so didn't draw a complete blank.
I'll always respect anyone who puts in the effort to produce a strategy and then put their views out there for us to read

I had a read of this fred, and JOCI kindly sent me his stats.

He will be well up over time by putting in this work. The odd one will come from nowhere but if there's any 100& foolproof betting strategy it hasnt been found by anyone on this forum.

Best just to ignore idiots like Rankine

Joci (and judo).

I am not a major punter (far from it!) but I really enjoy and appreciate the work you have put in when you post your analysis here.  Please be assured (and I am sure I speak for the vast majority) that your posts are eagerly looked forward to. Thank you.

An ok, but not a great day today. Managed to get 2 winners, with Zarkandar coming up trumps, and Captain Conan posting an impressive win.

A couple of shock wins from my perspective (Oiseau de Nuit for example) and my 4th top rated winning the Foxhunters at 100/1 (but going unbacked). Them's the breaks.

Good luck tomorrow!

Top Novices Hurdle

Art Of Logistics37     92%
Zuider Zee28     92%
Brick Red34     70%
Forgotten Voice41     59%
My Tent Or Yours24     41%

Selection: Art of Logistics @ 29 & Zuider Zee @ 14

Mildmay

Rocky Creek48     88%
Dynaste22     86%
Vino Griego22     69%
Super Duty22     62%
Third Intention22     52%
Sea Of Thunder139     45%

Selection: Rocky Creek

Melling Chase

Sprinter Sacre23     81%
Cue Card22     75%
Flemenstar55     66%
For Non Stop22     60%
Finian´s Rainbow48     43%
Mad Moose22     43%

Topham Chase

Tartak22     88%
Hector´s Choice22     79%
Fistral Beach357     77%
Gonebeyondrecall201     76%
Chance Du Roy42     75%
Arctic Ben35     74%
Montoya´s Son57     74%
Gus Macrae21     71%
Giorgio Quercus22     71%
Gullible Gordon90     69%
Pacha Du Polder34     67%
Renard21     67%
Little Josh42     66%
Gansey62     66%
Walkon22     61%
Dashing George42     61%
Jamsie Hall140     59%
Mister First29     59%
Dunowen Point41     59%
Last Time D´Albain99     56%
Criqtonic37     54%
Bennys Mist14     54%
Tranquil Sea57     54%
Billy Cuckoo31     52%
There´s No Panic27     51%
Triolo D´Alene90     51%
Sizing Santiago69     51%
State Benefit56     50%
Regal D´Estruval20     48%
Lambro36     47%

Sefton


At Fishers Cross21     100%
Master Of The Sea23     89%
Our Vinnie21     74%
Road To Riches117     70%
8 Uxizandre26     70%
2 Kris Cross27     70%
Yesyoucan46     68%
5 Imperial Leader27     56%
Gevrey Chambertin21     55%
Just A Par54     52%
3 Buachaill Alainn112     41%

Selection: At Fishers Cross
@ 2.6

4:50 Salubrious
5:25 Molly's A Diva

Tip for arrogant rude ****s:   If it says "Trends Analysis" in the topic title and you don't like reading trends analysis type of stuff, DON'T CLICK ON IT!  No need to be so damned rude either, if you happen upon similar analysis by accident just move on instead of acting like knuckle-draggers. 

Joci, your posts and Judo's are the first I look for when I come on here, thanks again for sharing your efforts.

If anyone was wondering, it said t -osse-rs

I'm not bothered by the criticism. The trends have their uses in pinpointing the horses that are statistically the most likely winners, but it's not foolproof by any means. It can be useful sometimes in throwing up horses that are largely unconsidered in the market. I'll give Golden Chieftain and Medinas (from Cheltenham) as two such examples that came out top of the ratings. Also, horses like Divine Intavention (2nd at 50/1 in Cheltenham Foxhunters) and Tartan Snow in the Aintree Foxhunters (4th top rated and won at 100/1 - though sadly unbacked by me).

However, for every example like those above, you'll get your Oiseau de Nuit type results (close to being my lowest rated in that race).

Let's hope for a few more winners today.

When you're consistently backing horses at double figure prices you don't need a high strike rate.  And the days when hit 2 or 3 at decent prices will more than make up for the occasional duck egg.

Joci - interesting At Fishers Cross analysis (100%), 4 of the last 5 winners of this race bypassed Cheltenham.
I was very keen on Our Vinnie but is now a NR

landed me a nice trble. Thanks JOCI.

Nice one - got another couple of winners today and the forecast in the Melling Chase. In fact I bet as a tricast Sprinter- Cue Card-Flemenstar which came in but when I went to collect was told it wasnt a tricast race and only got paid on the forecast.

Mersey Novices Hurdle

Up And Go     88%
Dodging Bullets    72%
Eduard     72%
Seefood     69%
Utopie Des Bordes     57%
Morning Royalty     46%
Ubak     40%
Vasco D´Ycy     13%

Selection: Up And Go @ 2.88

Great stuff Joci

I reckon you should add the price into the equation, would be interesting to see.

ps i know we can do it.

Can you clarify what you mean regarding the price?

Maghull Novices Chase

Alderwood 80%
Overturn 71%
Baily Green 69%
Sire De Grugy 62%
Marshal Zhukov 52%
Viva Colonia 41%
Special Tiara 31%

Selection: Alderwood @ 3.45

your % times the odds, ie 88%  x 1.88. (up&go)

its probably a bad idea but it might show some outsiders but will ruin the favs.

forget it.

Liverpool Hurdle

Solwhit 92%
Celestial Halo 61%
Smad Place 60%
Grands Crus 42%
Holywell 40%
Medinas 40%
Attaglance 37%
American Spin 31%
Bear´s Affair 28%
Won In The Dark 22%
Any Given Day 11%
Oscara Dara 11%
African Gold 10%

Selection: Solwhit @ 3.45

Interesting that Solwhit is streets ahead on the ratings.

The Grand National

Seabass42     83%
Chicago Grey46     79%
Balthazar King141     75%
Teaforthree49     74%
Sunnyhillboy84     74%
Across The Bay49     74%
Ballabriggs35     72%
On His Own46     72%
Colbert Station62     70%
Roberto Goldback42     68%
Cappa Bleu49     68%
Joncol56     68%
Imperial Commander70     66%
Rare Bob27     65%
Big Fella Thanks35     64%
Oscar Time27     64%
Forpadydeplasterer34     60%
Always Waining28     60%
Quel Esprit56     59%
Treacle21    58%
Weird Al56     58%
Becauseicouldntsee23     56%
Auroras Encore35     56%
What A Friend42     56%
Any Currency23     55%
Swing Bill23     54%
Tatenen22     52%
Mumbles Head105     52%
Mr Moonshine35     51%
Saint Are23     50%
Major Malarkey21    50%
The Rainbow Hunter49     49%
Viking Blond49     46%
Join Together35     45%
Ninetieth Minute21    39%
Tarquinius27     37%
Quiscover Fontaine37     36%
Soll28     36%
Harry The Viking23     35%
Lost Glory175     34%

Have backed several in the race:

Seabass @ 15
Chicago Grey @ 20
Sunnyhillboy @ 27
Across The Bay @ 36 (now 50 )
Rare Bob @ 44

Need to look at Teaforthree & Balthazar King tomorrow, and will probably have something on them too.

Interesting that Solwhit is streets ahead on the ratings.

not really when you think about it

agree with alderwood i,ll be max betting on it

hope your rite about alderwood mate

African Gold 10% lol, I strongly fancy that too. Really think the novices are good this year and the 3 mile older brigade are not so good.

alleged22 05 Apr 13 23:20 
Interesting that Solwhit is streets ahead on the ratings.

not really when you think about it Wink

agree with alderwood i,ll be max betting on it Cool


It's unusul to get ahorse so far ahead of the rest on trends...that's all I was saying. Might not win of course. At Fishers Cross was a 100% trends horse and won, Zarkandar was 85% and well clear, but neither had as big a gap between themselves and the next highest rated compared with Solwhit.

Let the trends make a mug of me.

JOCI - I am a trends fan and I really appreciate your data. I use it all the time as guidance to shorten my short lists and has served me well. One of my other "rules" is I am a big Jonjo fan in 3m+ Handicap Chases so the fact you have LOST GLORY bottom of your trends causes me angst and gives me a tough decision to make.  I am going with Jonjo over Joci for this one. Good luck mate. And keep them stats coming and ignore the negative naysayers. Cheers.

Liverpool Hurdle

Solwhit 92%
Celestial Halo 61%
Smad Place 60%
Grands Crus 42%
Holywell 40%
Medinas 40%
Attaglance 37%
American Spin 31%
Bear´s Affair 28%
Won In The Dark 22%
Any Given Day 11%
Oscara Dara 11%
African Gold 10%

Selection: Solwhit @ 3.45

Interesting that Solwhit is streets ahead on the ratings.

And din't he win like it!

boooooooommmmmmmmmmm

mcains horses so out of form

Trends took a hammering on the first 2 races though.