Grand National
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jumps well, stays well, handles any ground, prominent racer can avoid most of the trouble.
Can forgive poor run at Haydock (MonMome also well beaten there) last time after smart effort in Welsh National
Nicely weighted on 11-03
Last jockey to ride to success? JT McNamara..... could be bit of a sentimental winner
17-18 on here, can see going off plenty shorter around 10-12 on the day with doubts against everything at the head of the market
Can forgive poor run at Haydock (MonMome also well beaten there) last time after smart effort in Welsh National
Nicely weighted on 11-03
Last jockey to ride to success? JT McNamara..... could be bit of a sentimental winner
17-18 on here, can see going off plenty shorter around 10-12 on the day with doubts against everything at the head of the market
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I'm slightly surprised he's currently as big as he is! A sporting price imo.
I have backed him and On His Own ante-post and will probably go in again on both on the day if I have a successful week! So probably won't have any more on :( |
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Scrolling down the list from the top of the market he's the first one I can actually have as a winner, but I'm not backing it. Too slow imo.
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Do we think he'll get any bigger than 16's before next week all being well?
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Im backing it as fits all the last 10 years 100% trends.
He has the highest rating of the remainder of horses. Just ahead of Ballabriggs and Joncol both small e/w bets too. |
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misses a huge trend which makes him a highly unlikely winner and he is hugely under priced
he raced as a novice in the previous season and those horses have a terrible record no hoper in my book, nothing to suggest he is remotely worth 151. When former Gold Cup winner only giving him 7lbs it make you think. 151?? pfft no chance off that mark and has never won a handicap one for the bookies lads |
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What handicap did Quiscover Fontaine win?
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Bindaree won as second season chaser,and i dont think he had won a handicap so it can be done.
Paths are similar as well with Bindaree 5th in hennessey and 3rd in WN on route to GN.. Although his mark does look a bit high,he is one of the best jumpers. |
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When former Gold Cup winner only giving him 7lbs it make you think
This is a completely redundant comment. Every horse in the field looks poorly handicapped compared to Imperial Commander. |
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Just wonder how many second season chasers came here with 10 chases and 4 point-to-points behind them including a grade 2 staying win at Cheltenham and a close 2nd in a Welsh National with no falls and barely a mistake made?
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he raced as a novice in the previous season and those horses have a terrible record - Lord Gyllene
He has the required experience stats are a guide but they can ignore the `grey matter` information such as Bob`s Worth in the Gold Cup  .Teaforthree has the chase miles on the clock regardless if it was still novice last season. A big scopey animal wants top of the ground where he will improve stepped up to a marathon trip. He could grind them into the ground unless one or two are handicap plot horses such as the favourite but he will be bang there in the break away group im sure. |
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Just wonder how many second season chasers came here with 10 chases and 4 point-to-points behind them including a grade 2 staying win at Cheltenham and a close 2nd in a Welsh National with no falls and barely a mistake made?
Agree, also as a 9 year old and proven 4 mile stamina. He has the chase experience, the chase miles. Strange that the stats man on here has tipped up Quiscover Fontaine who has run in 10 chases and is a 9 year old without any PTP experience. Yet they say Teaforthree will be lacking in experience with his 10 chases and 3 PTP races and is at the age of 9. It`s scratchy head time  |
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* 10 chases and 4 PTP
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We will see Judorick
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Agree with the majority on here. But lets not get too carried away with ourselves, the race is a lottery, and an stakes on all bets should be minimal! I say it ever year, and every year almost we have winners at massive prices. Back able winners granted, but their still biggish prices! Any of the 40 given the right kind of race can win it!
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Has a huge chance. Jumps well, stays all day & good form in the book.
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Nonsense.
It's one of the best betting races of the year because you can rule out at least half the field usually more like 75%. |
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Yes it is flyingbolt, but more than in any other race, any horse in the race CAN and invariably does get wiped out on the way round if i may use those words. The National takes a heck of a lot of winning with a lot of luck too! I think you need 5/1 for a horse just to get round and the jolly this year is likely to be sent off 11/2! Utterly ridiculous price!
Winners in the last 20 years have included a 100/1, 33/1ers, a 40/1er, 20/1ers amongst about 1/3rd being the more fancied runners being amongst the winners. When you add in the fact that them prices are their starting prices and bookies like to chop for fun on the lead up to the start, it only goes to enhance my claim that almost anything competing in the race can win. Some more than others rely on the more fancied runners getting no luck etc but it happens! And any other race, you would have to hope that the stat on the most fancied runners winning would be more than half and half, not a third! More of a lottery than you might think! |
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Oh and i have included papilon and bobbyjo being one of the not so fancied, ok their sp was 10/1, ridiculous price if you realize that their morning tissues were around the 33/1 mark!
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I'd love to back every runner @ 5/1 to get round.
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Lol, actually in hindsight so would i, only them with very little knowledge of gambling say that! A very novicey comment there by me
 but in most years every runner has its price to get round as many fav's just don't! |
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The outsiders had all previously proven their stamina though.
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Where you used to be able to put a line through those over 11st 1 I now wonder if we can simply put a line through the bottom 10 in the weights?
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I disagree,any horse cannot win this race,i expect the profile of the winner to be the same as always.
It is just weather you have it in your final few selections |
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I do have one question, the national is often won with some kind of fairytale result/story. What horse, or horses, would J.T Mcnamara have been given the choice of riding?
Am sure use can see where am going with this   |
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Or let me refraise that question, what horses has the family/close friends connected to which are running in this years race?
Going back to my original post, i still stand by what i say as i will put it another way, the race is littered with winners of which would have been about my 20-30th pick out of the 40! Now that is my own personal opinion of the race but it does make me feel that almost any thing can win it! A little bit of after timing i no, but i did have silver birch backed, but, did not have red marauder, mon mome etc backed at all! Them two horses alone would have been about my 30th - 40th picks! |
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I really fancy T43 as to me he one of the best jumpers in the field, he is a bit high in the weight but i think his jumping ability compensates for the few extra pounds. I think the underrated Nick Schofield is riding too.
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