JOCI Club's 2013 Grand National Trends Analysis

Thank you. Surprised to see Cappa Bleu so low. I have a fancy for Across the Bay so happy he is high up there. Just need his trainer to improve his form a bit but he does know how to win a national!

I will be doing a bit more tweaking tonight, as this is still work in progress, so treat with a bit of caution at this point. Cappa Bleu misses quite a lot of my trends.

I was looking at Across the Bay myself but the McCain stable seems to be struggling and it sounds like they much prefer Ballabriggs

My top four are very close to JOCI:

1 - Teaforthree
2 - Chicago Grey
3 - Ballabriggs
4 - Joncol

Not sure a 10year analysis really holds for the National anymore.  A 5year one might be more interesting and in the great scheme of things only slightly less statistically-relevant.

I guess the Welsh National run is a worry for Across the Bay, didn't look like a stayer that day his recent winning form has been from front running and he didn't that day so maybe that wasn't meant to be his day.

Trends are very good for narrowing the field down but a great example of why they are not everything is Big Fella Thanks being 5th highest when he has no chance, unless there are a lot of fallers.

Sorry should read 6th highest!

best handicapped horse in the field and 8/1 fav on his own...rated 19th.!!?

According to me, yes. When he romps home, come back and give me / my system some stick.

Surprised they haven't given On his Own another outing over fences after his fall last year. I know it's to protect handicap but could have done it after the weights had came out.

Made a few treaks, and updated a couple of things, and here's my latest ranking (again, still not final as a couple more things to fall in place yet).

Seabass42     80%
Sunnyhillboy84     78%
Across The Bay49     78%
Chicago Grey46     77%
Teaforthree49     75%
Roberto Goldback42     74%
Bostons Angel23     73%
Ballabriggs35     72%
On His Own46     71%
Quinz42     71%
Balthazar King141     70%
Prince De Beauchene42     70%
Lion Na Bearnai126     70%
Tofino Bay24     69%
Rare Bob27     67%
Big Fella Thanks35     67%
Oscar Time27     67%
Joncol56     66%
Colbert Station62     66%
Bob Lingo42     64%
Cappa Bleu49     63%
Forpadydeplasterer34     61%
Becauseicouldntsee23     61%
Treacle21    60%
Beshabar497     59%
Weird Al56     59%
Auroras Encore35     58%
Always Waining28     57%
What A Friend42     57%
Tatenen22     57%
Imperial Commander70     56%
Quel Esprit56     56%
Magnanimity58     54%
The Rainbow Hunter49     53%
Any Currency23     52%
Swing Bill23     50%
Saint Are23     50%
Romanesco23     49%
Mortimers Cross35     48%
Join Together35     48%
Pentiffic65     48%
Mr Moonshine35     48%
Major Malarkey21    46%
Mumbles Head105     44%
Pearlysteps37     44%
Poker De Sivola119     44%
Wyck Hill42     44%
Gullible Gordon91     44%
Backstage22     43%
Quiscover Fontaine37     42%
Ninetieth Minute21    38%
Viking Blond49     37%
Harry The Viking23     37%
Cloudy Lane49     34%
Lost Glory175     31%
Tarquinius27     31%
Soll28     30%

Have so far backed Seabass at 15 and Chicago Grey at 20.

The Best Jumpers (Fall or UR/Races)

Swing Bill     0%    30
Tarquinius     0%    29
Forpadydeplasterer     0%    24
Joncol     0%    18
Balthazar King     0%    16
Magnanimity     0%    16
Lion Na Bearnai1     0%    11
Mr Moonshine     0%    11
Teaforthree     0%    10
Lost Glory     0%    9
Tofino Bay     0%    7
Harry The Viking     0%    7
Beshabar     0%    6
Soll     0%    6
Colbert Station     0%    5

The Dodgepots (% Fall or UR)

Tatenen 17%
Mumbles Head 17%
Auroras Encore 17%
Major Malarkey 18%
Saint Are 18%
Ninetieth Minute 18%
Big Fella Thanks 20%
Quiscover Fontaine 20%
Quel Esprit 22%
Becauseicouldntsee 27%

I guess he should be statistically the worst jumper with a name like that!

Food for thought?

What is the record of horses who pulled up in their last race in the National? Would it be stupid to rule them out or not?

Don't Push It,pulled up race before he won

I think Seabass is going to be my pick. Looks cloesly matched with Cappa Bleu on form but only faded at the death and apparently race is slightly shorter this year. Plus Cappa Bleu never really looked like winning, can see another place for him. A lot of the others seem too inexperienced, dodgy jumpers, non stayers or not well handicapped imo.

could do with poker de sivola getting into the race

When people start to look at his form he is no 66/1 rag just need luck to get him in off 10st

Yeah a lively outsider for sure. Does seem to make a few mistake but he did get around the fences on unsuitable ground last time. Worth a shot at the prices.

Prepped last time jumped the fences perfectly not a semblence of a mistake careful reckon murphy could get the leg up the further the better for this horse

a whitbred winner a 4m festival winner off bottom weight right age ran well last time at Aintree still had every chance jumping the 2nd last better as a spring horse.

Cannot be this price on the day unless it turns out a bog

Other horse is magnanimity monster price 50/1 ran well on gd ground in RSA chase has a touch of class travels well usually jumps okay another 66/1 poke which is worth a shot ew

apologies meant to say between 50/1 and 66/1 available

Loads of stats suggest Poker de Sivola would be an unlikely winner, and also Quiscover Fontaine, well regarded by several on the forum, seemingly has it all to do too.

i have bet seabass at 20 and cappa bleu and chicago grey both ew 25 and 20 poker de sivola would be very interesting on genuine spring ground but that looks impossible at the mo spoke to ferdy a couple of weeks ago and he didnt think he would get in but the way things are going i think he would make the 40 would have to play if spring arrives in next 10 days

Hasn't Ferdy (again) said somewhere that next year is the plan regarding the National?

yes but i think he said that when it didnt appear poker would get in

Plus Ferdy couldn't give you a straight answer if you asked for it in binary

Hi JOCI,

An interesting addition to the stats that I have added in this year is about horses who have unseated their riders. On Nick Mordin's website a few weeks ago he wrote

The Grand National fences are taller than at other tracks and horses inevitably land more steeply - increasing the risk of them propelling their rider out of the saddle. It therefore makes sense that if a horse has unseated its rider at all recently it will be a poor risk to complete the course let alone win around Aintree. This has to be especially true for one with a low head carriage like Prince de Beauchene. To see what I mean download the video of the Bobbyjo and freeze it as he lands over the last and ask yourself what would happen to his jockey if he did that at Bechers.

Only one of the last twenty two Grand National winners (Bindaree) unseated their rider in one of their last seventeen starts before the big race. If the same proportion of National runners has unseated that recently over the last twenty two years as they have over the last fourteen then 267 have done so for that single success.

Prince De Beauchene unseated his rider nine runs back at Carlisle. He also unseated once in France (he was remounted to finish third).

Only found this once I had put money on Chicago Grey and Rare Bob

can i ask how come quel esprit scores so lowly joci and the horse he beat in a grade 1 RG is rated much higher

alleged22 22 Mar 13 17:35 
can i ask how come quel esprit scores so lowly joci and the horse he beat in a grade 1 RG is rated much higher


If you want message me e-mail and I can send the analysis to you so you can check out the details.

wats u email joci.id be intrested in how u arrive at your ratings.ta

Message me with yours and I'll send it.

Awesome work Joci,Got my daughter teaching me how to do spreadsheets now

Did anyone else witness Across The Bay's run at Aintree last time? The horse kept trying to pull itself up. I nearly ran out to give it a push

I have applied 15 trends and taken 20/1 for TEAFORTHREE who I really like...other 2 are PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE @ around 12/1 and RARE BOB @ 40/1.
a really interesting 8 year old for 2014/15/16 is JOIN TOGETHER whose sire is old vic ( sire of 2 recent grand national winners ) and dam sire is montelimar who also sired 2 grand national winners...only 1 8 yo has won in last 18 years so will be patient with this one.

I have a sly fancy for Rare Bob too, and have had an investment at 44.

Rare Bob hugely over raced, Teaforthree was a novice last year and has other stats against him and is a long way down on my spreadsheet, Prince de Beauchene way too high in the ratings. All 3 major negatives for me

neptune collonges was having his 36th career start when winning last year...rare bob will be having his 41st...splitting hairs if you call rare bob over raced.
  Teaforthree is a big old fashioned chaser who races prominently..has shouldered some huge weights and will stay all day...on the likely slow ground I like him at 20/1 far more than virtually all of the ones at the head of the market.
  Prince de Beauchene ticks lots of boxes for me...
  backing the 3 each way and staking it so that 1 place covers all stakes.
  had the winner 3 of the last 4 years using same strategy so wont be doing anything different this year.

Novice last year stat could be a red herring with Teaforthree, the continued modifications to the race are going to nullify some trends for sure but in any case 10 chases and 3 wins is the exact same profile as Numbersixvalverde and add in 4 PTPs and he is experienced enough.  His 2nd in the Welsh National was a perfect trial giving 16lbs to the winner.  Huge horse who jumps extremely well and will be very well suited by the wide flat galloping track.   Times suggested the ground at Chepstow wasn't that heavy and the bottomless ground didn't help him at Haydock.  The only thing that would put me off would, therefore, be really bad ground.

what are your fancies joci ?

FINE

back what you want, they are no hopers for me

so what are your fancies then judo ?

Not so keen Prince de Beauchene, his preparation looks light and he fails my stamina test profile.  I don't use the 3m+ chase win stat as is totally useless.  53 of the 57 horses left in meet it this year!  I have an alternative assessment which has been basically unchanged for over 2 decades and is based on the tipping point for stamina being 3m 2f, something I've long maintained. Nine of the last 10 winners passed it (all except Monty's Pass) and only 23 of the 57 horses meet it this time.  Prince de B, On His Own and Colbert S all miss this key stat this time and add in On His Own and Colbert S's inexperience and the unusually light preparations of OHO and PDB and you have 3 horses at the front of the market that I couldn't touch.

Not keen on Rare Bob either, doesn't have the level of form I require at 26f+ he also marginally fails another stat, most National winners haven't fallen or unseated rider, other than in the National itself, for at least 2 years including all the last 10.  But as his UR was very nearly 2 years ago, and he's had plenty of runs since, I'd be prepared to ignore that.

thats interesting thieveslikeus ...I think it could be particularly relevent this year....something you may or may not find useful...I have manually gone through the past ten years results and researched head gear from the last 11 runnings.
visored runners 0-7...0 top 5 finishes
tongue tie 1-53... 3 top 5 finishes
blinkers 1-42...2 top 5 finishes
cheek pieces 0-43...2 top 5 finishes

so 2 horses won from 140 that carried some sort of headgear...there have been 439 runners in that time so you would
expect the runners with headgear to win around 1 in 3 times...its actually
only 2 from 11 so I would want to avoid those with headgear personally.

which ones are you looking to bet then thieveslikeus ?

judorick 24 Mar 13 18:56 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 13,349 | Blogger: judorick's blog
FINE

back what you want, they are no hopers for me



This guy is just brilliant! Is he for real?

you read my mind fivebagken...rattle out of pram or what .

After applying three further trends, here are my revised ratings:

Seabass42     82%
Sunnyhillboy84     77%
Across The Bay49     77%
Chicago Grey46     75%
Ballabriggs35     75%
Teaforthree49     74%
Balthazar King141     74%
Lion Na Bearnai126     73%
Quinz42     71%
On His Own46     71%
Roberto Goldback42     70%
Colbert Station62     70%
Tofino Bay24     69%
Cappa Bleu49     67%
Joncol56     66%
Oscar Time27     66%
Prince De Beauchene42     66%
Bostons Angel23     64%
Beshabar497     64%
Rare Bob27     63%
Big Fella Thanks35     63%
Forpadydeplasterer34     62%
Imperial Commander70     61%
Bob Lingo21    61%
Always Waining28     58%
Becauseicouldntsee23     58%
Treacle21    57%
Weird Al56     56%
Magnanimity58     55%
Auroras Encore35     55%
Tatenen22     54%
What A Friend42     54%
Any Currency23     54%
Quel Esprit56     54%
Swing Bill23     52%
Backstage22     49%
Saint Are23     48%
Major Malarkey21    48%
Romanesco23     47%
The Rainbow Hunter49     47%
Mumbles Head105     47%
Mortimers Cross35     46%
Join Together35     46%
Poker De Sivola119     46%
Mr Moonshine35     46%
Pentiffic65     43%
Gullible Gordon91     42%
Cloudy Lane49     41%
Viking Blond49     41%
Pearlysteps37     39%
Wyck Hill42     39%
Quiscover Fontaine37     38%
Harry The Viking23     37%
Ninetieth Minute21    34%
Lost Glory175     32%
Tarquinius27     31%
Soll28     30%

I keep going on and off Across The Bay and can't even remember why. I guess his Welsh national run wasn't the greatest and may be harder to win from the front in a field asbig as this. What are your thoughts on him?

Laynplay, the horses that meet the profile on a)  experience (10 chases runs+ 3 chase wins+)  b) recent form level (RPR 140+ in at least 1 of last 2 chases current season) c)  Jumping ability and ability to cope with the big field (no fall or ur in 2 years other than in national + 1st or 2nd in a chase with at least 14 runners) and d) Proven stamina in high class (winner of class 2 chase at 26f+ or placed 1-2-3 in a class 1 at 26f+) are;

Imperial Commander
Teaforthree
Seabass
Balthazar King

Teaforthree meets the profile and has a good prep with 4 races.  IC and Seabass have had unusually light preparations, 3 starts + is the norm to be able to win here.  IC is a rest pattern horse though and very high class so might not need the usual number of runs.  Seabass meets every stat except the 3 runs in a season, he was a bit overraced last season and I wonder if coming here fresher might be a good thing.  Balthazar King's absence looks too long to be seriously considered and very doubtful he will get his ground.

others to consider:
Ballabriggs and Sunnyhillboy lack the required level of recent form and have had weak preparations otherwise would be strong contenders.
Joncol fails the 26f test but otherwise profiles perfectly and is clearly well in on his grade 1 winning form at 3m, Across The Bay similarly just fails on the 26f test but he has had quite a hard campaign and has tried a longer distance and failed.
Cappa Bleu misses out by a whisker on experience, with his PTP history would be a mistake to ignore him for the sake of 1 chase run but he lacks 3 wins too and his prep is light so I won't be backing him.
Last but not least, Chicago Grey meets most of the stats but has a fall in his recent record and unseated last season too.  He didn't look too at home in last year's race either so I'm passing him over.

I've already got a fairly decent bet on Teaforthree and smaller bets on IC and Joncol which I will top up if confirmed runners.  Seabass looks to be the other main contender.  Although he didn't quite get home last season, he is a fresher horse this time and I will be backing him too.






































g contenders

Thz thieves I think I will stick with Seabass with maybe a saver on Cappa Blue. I just don't think Teaforthree is well enough handicapped as he was laid out for what I thought was a weak Welsh National and still didn't get the job done. Higher in the handicap here and has had a few runs this season.

Hasn't Joncol had back problems? Not sure tht's not ideal for the National.

Yes, Joncol only runs if they can get his back right.  I wouldn't be surprised if he misses it.  All last 10 winners had 3-6 starts same season I believe?  Teaforthree isn't overraced with 4.

thieves - my amended figures above incorporate your 3 additional trends (a) jumping ability (b) class form @ 26f+ (c) big field form.

It's just T43's last run that puts me off a bit. If I can come round to forgiving that, then I'll back him too.

Yes thanks JOCI figured that, they are an interesting collection of stats, I didn't include the 140+ RFR or the 10 runs 3 wins as you had stats very close to those already.

I like Seabass but I simply can't see this horse as a the national winner.  Questions...

Consistent- yes

Good jumper-yes

Race as seasonal target-yes

Stays distance- possibly

Weight- More than last year where it didn't appear to get home- No

I think it will get round, jumping well, possibly being placed but winner-no.

couldnt have seabass on my mind..none stayer, especially on the likely slower ground...place lay.

What if Ruby is on Seebass, could he get more out of the horse than Katie?

I thought she did a fine job last year, so not necessarily.

Tea4three only had 4 runs but it sure looks like the Welsh national took it out of him judging from his last run.

No,T43 hated being away from home for the Haydock run, which is why he travels up on the day. I am excusing him on those grounds anyway

some interesting posts but as i have nailed my colours firmly to the mast on seabass at 20's i am not deserting him really fancy him been given great prep and for those who say he didnt get home i cant have that sunnyhillboy my bet last year was well handicapped and in the form of his life the winner had been placed in a gold cup and won a punchestown gold cup i dont think there are those type of horses to contend with this time imperial of course has won a gold cup but not sure he is anywhere near the same horse and these little setbacks must have interupted his prep i have just had a little ew chicago at 20 also

Nothing has come out of the WN and ran a decent race though. Monbeg dude came cloest when running a well beaten 3rd before being stuffed in the GN. Looked poor race at time and I'm sticking to that view.

Five of the Welsh National runners have won since, Monbeg Dude a respectable 3rd at Haydock. First 2 came clear, way too early to be writing off the form.

Ok non of those who actually ran their race in the WN have come out and done anything since which either indicates it was a poor renewal or it was a gruelling race. Either way it's put me off T43 as already been trained to peak once this season.

How does amoney tree lay affect the trends? He's layed Sollso surely. that's worth a 30% boost!

Latest update after today's defections, latest market moves etc:

Seabass42     83%
Chicago Grey46     79%
Balthazar King141     75%
Teaforthree49     74%
Sunnyhillboy84     74%
Across The Bay49     74%
Ballabriggs35     72%
On His Own46     72%
Colbert Station62     70%
Quinz42     69%
Roberto Goldback42     68%
Cappa Bleu49     68%
Joncol56     68%
Imperial Commander70     66%
Rare Bob27     65%
Big Fella Thanks35     64%
Oscar Time27     64%
Forpadydeplasterer34     60%
Always Waining28     60%
Quel Esprit56     59%
Treacle21    58%
Weird Al56     58%
Becauseicouldntsee23     56%
What A Friend42     56%
Swing Bill23     54%
Auroras Encore35     53%
Tatenen22     52%
Any Currency23     52%
Backstage22     51%
Saint Are23     50%
Romanesco23     49%
The Rainbow Hunter49     49%
Mumbles Head105     49%
Poker De Sivola119     48%
Mortimers Cross35     48%
Mr Moonshine35     48%
Major Malarkey21    46%
Join Together35     45%
Pentiffic65     45%
Cloudy Lane49     43%
Viking Blond49     43%
Gullible Gordon91     41%
Pearlysteps37     38%
Quiscover Fontaine37     36%
Ninetieth Minute21    36%
Harry The Viking23     35%
Lost Glory175     34%
Tarquinius27     34%
Soll28     33%


My main bets Seabass and Chicago Grey leading the way, and interesting to see Balthazar King creeping into contention (can it be?).

Still time for change in the next few days.

Great work mate.
any chance you could send me the analysis Joci???

pop me you e-mail in a message

lets hope we are right joci as i am on seabass at 20 win and chicago grey 20 ew as i have already stated i think this years national has been the target for seabass last season he had already won 5 chases and of course he needed to to gain a hcp mark high enough to get in the national granted luck in running i see katie making national history

lets hope we are right joci as i am on seabass at 20 win and chicago grey 20 ew as i have already stated i think this years national has been the target for seabass last season he had already won 5 chases and of course he needed to to gain a hcp mark high enough to get in the national granted luck in running i see katie making national history

lets hope we are right joci as i am on seabass at 20 win and chicago grey 20 ew as i have already stated i think this years national has been the target for seabass last season he had already won 5 chases and of course he needed to to gain a hcp mark high enough to get in the national granted luck in running i see katie making national history

Final rankings before the off:


Seabass42     83%
Chicago Grey46     79%
Balthazar King141     75%
Teaforthree49     74%
Sunnyhillboy84     74%
Across The Bay49     74%
Ballabriggs35     72%
On His Own46     72%
Colbert Station62     70%
Imperial Commander70     69%
Roberto Goldback42     68%
Cappa Bleu49     68%
Joncol56     68%
Rare Bob27     65%
Big Fella Thanks35     64%
Oscar Time27     64%
Forpadydeplasterer34     60%
Always Waining28     60%
Quel Esprit56     59%
Treacle21    58%
Weird Al56     58%
Becauseicouldntsee23     56%
Auroras Encore35     56%
What A Friend42     56%
Any Currency23     55%
Swing Bill23     54%
Tatenen22     52%
Mumbles Head105     52%
Mr Moonshine35     51%
Saint Are23     50%
Major Malarkey21    50%
The Rainbow Hunter49     49%
Viking Blond49     46%
Join Together35     45%
Ninetieth Minute21    39%
Tarquinius27     37%
Quiscover Fontaine37     36%
Soll28     36%
Harry The Viking23     35%
Lost Glory175     34%