Grand National
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04 Mar 13
09:36
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11 Jan 06
The price of this horse continues to amaze me - in comparison to similar topweight Imperial Commander. Both 12 yr-olds untried over the track but Albertas is very much a spring horse and the Ryanair will put him spot on for a National tilt. Two and a half milers always renowned as National contenders in the past, Gay Trip and Lucius instantly spring to mind.
I've had a few quid on him between 270 and 350, expecting price to drop as if he makes it on the day he will be a double-figure price for sure ... and who knows, after Teaforthree and Wyck Hill's disappointing runs of late, AP may decide to ride him !
Undoubtedly one of the high-profile, top class horses in the field .... last year's winner similarly of top class and slipped in under the radar at 33/1 - it could happen again and give Trevor Hemmings a third National success in eight years.
I've had a few quid on him between 270 and 350, expecting price to drop as if he makes it on the day he will be a double-figure price for sure ... and who knows, after Teaforthree and Wyck Hill's disappointing runs of late, AP may decide to ride him !
Undoubtedly one of the high-profile, top class horses in the field .... last year's winner similarly of top class and slipped in under the radar at 33/1 - it could happen again and give Trevor Hemmings a third National success in eight years.
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Did you know that Accordion, Alberta's stallion, has the worst record over four miles out of every stallion that currently has a horse in training. Never had a winner over the distance with over 40 horses having attempted it. Character Building came closest in the NH Chase off level weights but in handicaps is where this progeny's record is abysmal. It's a massive leap of faith to think Alberta's will be the first to do it carrying top weight in the Grand National.
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Whilst I totally agree with your stats, the same was mentioned this time last year when I strongly fancied According to Pete. You may recall he was running a great race before being brought down at second Bechers - if he had stood up, who knows. I remember AtP had previously been nailed on the line over 3m 6f at Catterick, so felt these stats could be overturned (and of course, like all stats, will be one day) ....
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Where did you get the info about Accordion from Roselier?
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Weatherby's, but you have to pay for it. Naughty Weatherby's.
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Is he going to run in the national? I've not seen or heard any commitment to that. I've always thought he looked a likely sort, but Roselier's stats are interesting. According to Pete might have changed those stats if he hadn't been knocked over last year, and he did very nearly win over 3m6f once.
I've never taken much notice of breeding in the National, have always thought that by the time a horse runs in it there is enough evidence of what it can do not to worry too much about the pedigree. Red Rum should have been a sprinter after all, Seabass is by turtle Island .. you could go on and on. But this thread prompted me to look a bit more, and one thing that does stand out is how many "proper national horses" Old Vic has sired. Not just in terms of stamina, but jumping too. This is a full list of all the National runners by Old Vic in the last 3 years Black Appalachi, Sunnyhill Boy, Vic Venturi, In Compliance, Don't Push it, Comply Or Die, Our of 6 runners, 2 of them have (at some point, not necessarily in the last 3 years) won the race, 2 have been 2nd, one placed. Only Vic Venturi has failed to complete, but he was brought down twice in the National and did win a Beecher. Every one of these horses has, I'd say, performed better over the National fences than their park course form. None of this will help us much this year as the only Old Vic running in the race for the first time is Join Together. He has already showed a good aptitude for the fences mind you, and looks like he'll stay 10 miles. It might come in handy one day though. |
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I thought 3 miles was the absolute maximum trip for Alberta's run, would have him as a non stayer for the national.
Interesting post Barry. I feel Join Together is not well enough handicapped to win but must have chances of placing. |
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I agree completely GCW - ideal type but very badly handicapped on what he's done.
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Joint Together I mean. AR is crying out for a step up in trip imo, but maybe not such a big step up. He did win the RSA and looked like a stayer in his novice days, but 4.5 may be too much. He might suit the John Hughes if they fancy that.
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