Grand National
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I don't usually like to get involved in the National at such an early stage, but I just cannot let BALLABRIGGS go unbacked at a whopping looking 33/1.
Ok, he's 12 yrs old, but he's a lightly raced 12yr old, and you can be sure he'll be trained to the minute to run a big big race.
He won this off a mark of 150 2 years ago, and was travelling as well as anything 2 out in last years race off a 10lb higher mark, before only managing to stay on at the one pace, eventually finishing 6th. He'd had a less than ideal preparation last year ( just the one outing at Kelso the previous month ), and it's likely that probably cost him in the closing stages.
Things appear to have gone much more smoothly this time around. The plan is for him to run in the Kelso race he's taken in for the past 2 years next month, on the back of a couple of outings in the Becher and over an inadequate 2M4f at Warwick last week.
Granted he gets there in one piece, he's going to be a big big player in this year's race in spite of his age, and off a mark of 152 ( only 2lb higher than when successful ) he offers excellent EW value at the current 33/1.
Good luck
Ok, he's 12 yrs old, but he's a lightly raced 12yr old, and you can be sure he'll be trained to the minute to run a big big race.
He won this off a mark of 150 2 years ago, and was travelling as well as anything 2 out in last years race off a 10lb higher mark, before only managing to stay on at the one pace, eventually finishing 6th. He'd had a less than ideal preparation last year ( just the one outing at Kelso the previous month ), and it's likely that probably cost him in the closing stages.
Things appear to have gone much more smoothly this time around. The plan is for him to run in the Kelso race he's taken in for the past 2 years next month, on the back of a couple of outings in the Becher and over an inadequate 2M4f at Warwick last week.
Granted he gets there in one piece, he's going to be a big big player in this year's race in spite of his age, and off a mark of 152 ( only 2lb higher than when successful ) he offers excellent EW value at the current 33/1.
Good luck
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Fair point
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I think this years entries are a class above those of two years ago, so what appears a good mark, probably isnt.
Sure to run well and give a good run for money, but others of more interest to me. Good luck. |
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Still 33-1 after showing good form yesterday, looks fair to me.
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Got left 10 lengths behind by a 12yo and an 11yo both rated 10+ lbs inferior and giving him 4 lbs. I was bitterly disappointed with his effort, jumped the second last in line and just did not finish off his race. I don't think it was good form at all when you think he will be off 152 in the National. Sorry to be a killjoy but needs a miracle between now and then
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Both the winner and 2nd's h'cap marks were on the low side in relation to yesterday's race. Both have won off higher.
Always Right, course specialist. Run 5 times at Kelso, won 4, 2nd once. 11yo but relatively few miles on the clock, so may not be regressing. Garleton, back from a break, won 4 times on such occasions. Run 8 times at Kelso 1 win ,5 places, 2 unplaced, he seemed well suited to Kelso's fences, jumped really well. With the benifit of hindsight these two were aimed at this and would have been trained to the minute. Ballariggs will be like that for the Grand National, not yesterday. At the weights Ballabriggs should have won, just not yesterday and not at Kelso. Forgot the ground.., wasn't ideal, and the 4th was a long way behind....think I'm making it up now..better stop. |
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keep trying to convince yourself but he just did not finish his race and that was very disappointing
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Forget about the result, yesterday was all about preparation for the BIG ONE.
He jumped, he travelled, he tired from 2 out. Think about the Kelso race 2 yrs ago...........beaten by the 138 rated Skippers Brig. Left that form way behind when trouncing that rival in the National. Think about the Kelso race 12mths ago........comfortably beaten by lesser rated rivals but still ran a huge race in the National, without the ideal preparation. Things appear to have gone much more smoothly this year. He'll be spot on for the National, and hopefully he'll get his ground. He may be 12yrs old, but so was Amberleigh House. The 33's is too big. |
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will get left behind, probably get round in 6th to 10th but the younger faster horses are going to leave him in their wake 33s is a joke price
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What price do you think he should be judorick?
Can you name 5 horses that you believe will finish in front of him? 33's offers plenty of EW value imo. He's been prepared with this as his target for 12 mths He's proven the fences hold no fears. He's guaranteed a run. To suggest 33's is a joke price is just plain crazy. If you would like to put up anything above 38 I will take the lot. |
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fastest finger firstIDKW
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Ran a perfectly respectable trial on Saturday. We all know he's being trained for one day & one day only. Excellent each way value at 33/1 i reckon.
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I am convinced i saw the national winner after seeing him eased at Kelso,jockey wasn't hard on him and he's 10lb better on decent ground jumped superb and travelled well combination of owner.trainer and horse with c/d is highly compelling if ground is decent 33's is huge and I have been betting him every day I win on here
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I like him too.
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As a 12yo I'd want him to be on a lower mark than at age 10 to be even remotely considering him. To put in perspective, Imperial Commander is the same age and has been put in 27lbs lower than his rating at his peak.
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That wouldn't work for Amberleigh House, who won at 12 with a higher mark than his 10 y o mark.
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Yes but very every horse that improves from 10 to 12 there will be another 10 at least that go the other way. Ballabriggs has deteriorated by around 15lbs around park courses in that time and progression seems unlikely.
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Stable form is a worry, lots of hoses under perfoming. On the cold list now.
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shouldn't post from my phone, earlier post should have said for every horse...
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Just a small pointer, remember RED RUM ran in Haydock race prior to
the National, never looked like winning at any of it's prep, but proved the form all wrong by producing 3 wins and 2 seconds, like father like son? |
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He made a mistake at the Canal Turn last year which didn`t help but he did keep on. Horses for courses and taking the Kelso form literally as his standard is wrong. He is not a soft ground horse, we know he bounces off better ground and to discount him like Judrock is, shows a lack of understanding as to how Donald will have trained him. Every race is a stepping stone.
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Hmmm, Judorick appears to have gone AWOL from this thread.
The closer we get to the race, the more hopeful I am that BALLABRIGGS will go very very close. A largely dry forecast should see the ground in his favour, and I've gone in again at the 25's EW. |