Solid EW for National

Chicago grey if he gets in is my ew bet

join together for me

im on PDB but my eway bet is alfie sherrin with a run off 10 stone is thrown in  and won at the cheltenham festival last year and is clearly still very well handicapped

cracking trial from Cappa Bleu

Backing Chicago Grey each way is ridiculous. He's an awful jumper.

quito de la roque best horse form there been round aintree too

Seabass, Cappa Bleu, Chicago Grey & Quinz

Alfie Sherrin ran on well at Chelters

Had a bit each way on Alfie Sherrin as well before his run at Cheltenham as they seemed to be going the same route as they did with Sunnyhillboy last year (placed in Irish National previous year, spin over hurdles and a run in the Kim Muir). Thought he ran okay but didnt like the way he was off the bridle early and had to be ridden away from his fences. Clearly needs softer ground as he would get hopelessly outpaced on similar ground round Aintree, assuming he gets in which isnt a given. Should still be improving having had only 10 runs over fences though.

I agree with OP that Cappa does look very solid.

Treacle looks a good outsider, provided its not too sticky.

I put this on another thread regarding the National and I haven't changed my mind and still a tasty price.  Good EW IMO.

Rare Bob ran a cracking trial 10/3/13 in the Leinster National btn only 2 lengths giving over a stone to the winner and over 2 stone to the 2nd.  Came out best in the GN weights in his previous run in the Bobbyjo Chase also.  Looks like he's running into form and only got 10-02 in the big one, so looks weighted to go close IMO.  Has run well at Aintree on good ground also, before unseating 2 out when leading in race won buy Prince de Beauchene giving him a stone.  In the GN this time RARE BOB receives a stone from PDB.  Must have a sniff with normal luck in running.

I backed rare bob last year but not sure if he stays. He didn't seem to stay at Sandown or Aintree, although admittedly on much worse ground than he might encounter. I know he came 4th in a Irish National but winner of that National didn't stay the Aintree trip either.

test

Agree with you on bad ground GCW, but you never actually know if they stay unless they get into contention from 3 out.  On decent ground IMO Rare Bob has a live chance.  It looks as though he has been trained with this in mind also.  Think D Hughes has another chance also with Tofino Bay after his Cheltenham run behind Back In Focus.

Had a look at Tofino Bay but without checking I'm not sure if a novice has ever won the national? Also just had a the hardest race of his career. Will he be recovered for this?

Tofino Bay is a novice, but has had 7 chase starts and seems to jump pretty well from what I've seen.  Obviously had quite a hard race but seemed to me to be idling rather than out on his feet.  Yes, has to be doubts about peak form but had 3 1/2 weeks to get over it.  Biggest worry would IMO be quick ground.

I noticed GCW you put Auroras Encore on another thread and I can see the angle.  Difference for me as opposed to TB is he needs good ground.  Certainly comes right this time of year, but not the best jumper and took a pearler at Doncaster 2 races back (backed Him).  There are much worse 250/1 shots though.

Yeah would have a nice low weight if he got in. looks like he will stay. His last run is a worry as he has ran well on soft before and the handbrake should have been off. I've not seen enough of his races to know how is jumping usually is but did see he has a few falls. Main reason I posted thread was to get general view on the horses jumping and if he had any chance of getting around. Big price if he does.

I know there is a stat that National winners tend to have had a certain amount of runs over chases but not sure what that number is!

I Like Baltazhar King at a price , seems to have the right credentials for the race. right age running off a competitive mark under 11 stone thorough stayer who
loves the spring ground we would ordinarily see at the GN meeting , jumps for fun without hitting the deck over the larger obstacles and sees his races out well
hope Johnson chooses him over planet of sound , he was withdrawn from the cross country race at the festival as the ground had gone against him yet his promenance in the betting promised that Hobbs had him ready to run a big race to defend his crown from last year (silver birch had form in the cross country races before going on to win his national in 2007) he's won around this time of year for the last couple of years so will relish the ground and trip, and very importnatly he's won every time he's returned from a break since being sent chasing so loves being fresh. To me he's a tremendous ew bet and would love to hear opinions both for and against this horse

Interesting selection, just had a look at his form and he's not one I could rule out. Does seem to thrive at Cheltenham though.

Agree he's done most of winning at Cheltenham but like Nicholls said about conti in gold cup he's never avoided the course there's never been a race for him,
i suppose he's targeted the march and april fixtures at cheltenham as the course plays to his strengths (strong stayer , stiff finish) but once you ve got a horse that has a profile for the national when you're trying to win the race for the first time he may have been using the cross country as a prep run for the national and bypassed the april cheltenham meeting this year, it's all ifs buts and maybes but price reflects the risk on betfair.

I'm interested in Quito De La Roque NRNB at 50's.

Well that pisses on my theory!

Are there any decent blogs/previews around about this years National? I've been so focussed on Cheltenham I haven't really backed much this year

Methinks the key to this race lies in the Ultima Novices Chase at Cheltenham in November 2011.  Time will tell!

Ground coming right for Rare Bob and price shortening by the day.  Now needs like all of them a bit of luck.  Mudlarks are going to be outpaced.

I've got 7 in my stable:

Imperial Commander 20/1 nrnb 6places
Ballabriggs 20/1 nrnb 5 places
Balthazar King 28/1 nrnb 5 places
Joncol 40/1 nrnb 6 places
Always Waining 50/1 nrnb 5places
What a Friend 50/1 nrnb 6places
Poker de Sivola 75 & 17.5 4 places

Colbert Station

Saint Are would seem a decent ew poke to me

course form, won a hcap, won over 3m+, won in a big field

the negatives being levelled at SA are its too young - it actually has more chase experience than a lot of the more fancied runners (colbert 5 chases, On H O 7 chases)
and it is a dodgy jumper - 1 fall and 1 ur out of 11 chases wouldnt be any concern on the normal scheme of things and i would be more worried if it had fallen round the national course previously

i also think it is potentially a lot better treated than quite a few rivals in terms of its mark.

one for the portfolio imo

ninetieth minute

decent run lto and i think will improve for better ground after racing in bog like conditions all year (chelt fest hdles win on better ground)

jockey rode a superb race last year to plot his way round on incompliance and produce it with a chance and i think this will be a  similar ride for him

sire has a great record in this race (only two old vic runners this year are join together SHB and this lad i think)

not sure how much it will have left after the last but a place is not out of the question imo

he is in my portfolio

Saint Are - course form ? clutching at straws shirley ?

your right the national course is a lot different (fences and more galloping nature)

however in terms of going the right way round, being a flat track and having the same postcode i am taking a positive view , so happy to claim 'course form'

GL

Only one horse you could give a SOLID EW chance to imho
BALLABRIGGS

So 2nd it was to be!!!!