All aboard the Tidal Bay express

I do love this horse, but his jumping is not good at all and I think the national fences will find him out, and top wight too boot, no thanks.

Am I missing something about Tidal Bay to the point where even Pricewise has picked him apparently. Is this a bookmakers benefit year or something?

Just look at his form last two seasons,plus its a matter of time before a top weighted horse wins,place cert imo

I appreciate it that Jasey but the only time he has ever fallen or unseated his rider was in the race. His chase record on good ground outside of his novice races is 56U as opposed to on soft which is 1211 so you could make an argument that he is ground dependent. His record on good to soft during the same period is 2424223252. If the ground were to come up soft on the day (which is more than likely) would you want to be backing top weight in the race? His best piece of from last year was his win at Sandown, a race which has subsequently only produced 1 winner of a graded chase. His trainer has said his main aim is the race and he is progressing well after being found lame but I think he will need a decent prep for Aintree and in the World Hurdle he will potentially be up against 2 horses (Oscar Whisky and Reve De Sivola) who will be trying to win, rather than get fit. Antepost he is a risky proposition in my opinion and all this hype is mostly from bookies encouraging people to back him. In can only be a matter of time before William Hill report a fictious bet of £10,000 at a shop in Rochdale on him.

Many a horse has fell and won at the next attempt m8,and yes i love stats and trends,but you got to look to the better horses these days.

Very true. Good luck, I think you will need it.

Paul Nicholls has received the news that Tidal Bay has a tiny stress fracture and is out of the Grand National

I have got some bad news to report. Tidal Bay is out of the Grand National.

As previously mentioned, he was slightly lame before the Argento and we couldn't get him ready in time for that race, or the Irish Hennessy.

He was out cantering as usual on Monday and Tuesday, but on Wednesday we decided to step up his work.

But his work rider came back up and said he didn't feel right.

So we immediately called in Buffy and, after discussions, we got him down to Newmarket today for an MRI Scan.

The news through from Buffy is that Tidal Bay has a tiny stress fracture of the lower cannon bone on his right hind leg. This is something that the X-rays we took before his problem in the Argento didn't pick up; only today's MRI did.

He needs a month's box rest, so that rules out the National.

As soon as I got the news, I immediately rang Mr Wylie and we agreed to release this statement as soon as possible.

And a raft of bookies begin to cry

what a shame

How likely is Albertas Run to go for the race? I think Imperial Commander's main target is Cheltenham.

Amazing bookies cleaned up

Yep, plenty of cheltenham n national money spunked up on this one.

"So we immediately called in Buffy"

The Vampire Slayer?!

Get well soon Tidal Bay x

there is always a stort behind the national and graham wylie has another good horse out with a stress fracture (happened to PDB last year after hacking up in prep race and became 7/1 fav for the national) how fitting would it be then that this year with TB out with a stress fracture for PDB to hack up and win the national im already on at 25/1 placed september 19 last year im reliably told he would of won last year off 10-7 but is a bigger fitter and all round better horse this year` come on ruby you know your gonna ride the prince and win very easy indeed

"there is always a stort behind the national"

Yes, I always try finding the winner by looking for the story behind the race.

Hasn't worked yet

They add the story after,simple

Yes, I know.

It was Clare Balding who suggested trying to predict the winner's story before the race, to find the winner.

It seemed like a good idea at the time