seabass

What did you think of the race today boy wonder?  Think Seabass ran well, but some of the write ups seem a bit over the top, the 3rd weakened badly and he wasn't really closing on an eased down Rock Critic.  That said think it was all pretty encouraging for Aintree, looks like Kempton next I think.  More worried about the fitness/race sharpness of Katie Walsh at the moment, don't think she's back fit yet?  No way Ruby can ride him in my opinion.  Was on heavily ante post last year and thought i was onto a year changing win until the last half furlong, so got to stick with him again, 20/1 still looks big to me!  best of luck!

thanks i was at carlisle yesterday so just seen post i was pleased with his run wasnt bothered by the way the fav weakened the fact was that 2m over hurdles was always just going to be a sharpener after 10 months off i hope he runs in the bobbyjo as i think that will suit him better i anticipate him being on 10st 11 lb when weights are announced i couldnt guess what ruby will ride but if he was to win on seabass next time out i couldnt see why he wouldnt ride but if katie is fit i think she will keep the ride after all she gave him a great ride last year

11st 2lbs......ouch!

yes i am very disappointed with smiths interpretation of handicaps supposed to being a level playing field i thought he would assess tidal bay off 165 minimum

Did the horse get home last year? For me it faded on the run in on good ground in a race that was run below standard.

I dont think the form will stand up from last years race,too many fancied horses didn't complete( I appreciate thats the test)and the field was narrowed down considerably from an early stage.

i disagree as i thought it was a cracking renewal last season sunnyhillboy very well handicapped pipped by a former gold cup 3rd and punchestown gold cup winner seabass stayed alright he was bang there 100yds out and now the race is 90 yds shorter but i was hoping for 10st 12lb max

Hope Katie keeps the ride on Seabass.

Would love her to be the first lady winner of the Grand National.

the weights could rise 5lbs yet if the top 2 (after Tidal Bay) don't run, putting Seabass on 11 st 5lb

that doesn't necessarily stop him but makes the current price look short. I'm a layer, along with Sunnyhill Boy and a few others

he would be on 11-7 judorick a mighty ask but i went in at 20's and still think he will go very close hoping for big run in the bobbyjo have you got all your figures done yet judorick

yes I have done all the figures for the info up to now

of course there will be extra info to take into account and I really need to know who will be top weight though

thanks i was at haydock yesterday so just read your reply yes its all a bit of guesswork regarding who will be topweight but i think taking in to account his owner and albertas age i think he will run only a seriously bad run at cheltenham would change their thoughts about running worst scenario i can see is those on 11-5 at mo carrying t w hence a 3lb rise for all

many thanks

I will work on Albertas being the topweight then. Makes a difference for those horses set to carry between 10-12 and 11-2 as to whether I include them in my betting plan

I think trying to find the right balance of the quality of higher weighted horses with consideration to an easier course is important.  The intended runners at the top of the handicap are good horses. Crisp, L'Escargot and Red Rum they are not. At the bottom end, gone are the days where owners enter their horses to go at a hundred miles an hour leading over the first four or five fences while his party cheer wildy pished on champagne before the poor beast and jockey get trampled over by thirty-odd runners.
  The quality of horses entering this event has improved markedly over the last decade and anything down to roughly 75 in the long handicap list is worth considering for now imo. Weight is still a massive factor and I would rather take a chance on a likely stayer, consistent jumper getting in with under 10-6 than piling in to a doubtful topweight.
  Politics and old pals acts can also play their part on confirmed entries in the final week.

Indeed it is now not much more than an extremely valuable long distance handicap chase and I treat it as such. So I look for well handicapped runners with the requisite class, stamina and jumping ability. I've done my spreadsheet and there are about 20 entries that seem to meet most of the requirements so my task is to weed through and get on the ones likely to show they are well in at the weights. I did well last year getting on Sunnyhill Boy at 65 and BecauseIcouldntsee at 70 around this time because they then ran 1st and second at Cheltenham and both shortened up big time. I doubt I shall be so lucky this time. Already had a few nibbles on the ones at the top of the list.

Judorick,

  What do you consider as well handicapped runners?  Looking at our individual ratings then comparing them with Mr.Smith's can produce some intereting results.  If I wished to have a speculative pick I would concentrate on the bottom end of the handicap rather than the top, in the hope my stab would get in with a view to laying off for a free run in the race itself.  I concentrate on horses on Betfair that are three times the odds (or more) that I consider they should be.

I make the list of candidates using the now 17 Mordin trends, then I look at the BHA mark they are set to run from and compare that to their lifetime highest RPR. That can of course change now that the weights are out, as it did with SHB last year so I will be paying attention to how they get on in their trial races. Some of the runners have clearly had their mark protected by not being campaigned over fences or at short distances. Mullins has two like that this year... but only one is near the top on trends

yes ones nearer the bottom are more likely to have a bit in hand if you can see they have been preserved. Then again some of the topweights have been cut some slack. Neptune Collonges actually ran off 2lb lower than his official mark last year and that made a huge difference.

What are the extra 2 trends you have added in Rick?

Seabass would be a worry for me now after yesterday's run.

i thought seabass ran ok looked a little fresh and got in a bit close at one or two i would hope that would have brought him on 6 weeks to get him spot on

Off a 5lb higher mark than last year i struggle to think this will be good enough and certainly wouldn't be backing it at the current prices.If ruby rode it i might change my mind however(though seems v unlikely right now).Finishes 6th imo.

Seabass is my first bet on the National this year, as he scores well on my preliminary trends analysis.