Grand National
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10 Apr 12
12:38
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16 Jun 11
Or have the right horse not gone for it? I remember Big Fella Thanks was all the range 3 years but people were saying he couldn't win because he was 7. He didn't win but he ran just as well as he did the next two years when eight and nine. Has anyone got an example of a 7 year old in the national who stayed better in later years?
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My concern about young horses in the National is more to do with their lack of experience over fences. I wrote this piece when Tricky Trickster was a fancied 7yo for the 2010 race:
http://gu.com/p/2f3kc/tw In the Grand Nationals from 1999 to 2009, there were 21 seven-year-old runners, of which 15 either fell or unseated, including fancied runners like Eudipe and Jurancon, while the 8-1 shot Iris Bleu was pulled up at halfway after 3 significant errors. Of course, one can imagine an unusual 7yo who would cope well with the race but it's very hard to bet on something that hasn't happened since the evacuation of Dunkirk imo |
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Was just looking at organisedconfusion. He seems to be very experienced for his age. Would you rule out the likes of Cappa Bleu for only having 6 chase starts?
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Ruling a horse out for inexperience is going a bit far but you do have to factor it into your thoughts. For me, it's an obvious risk factor, for which the odds available would have to compensate if I was going to back him.
Once a horse has won the Irish National, it's hard to argue that experience is much of an issue. Re Cappa Bleu, I'm not sure he's certain to see out the last half-mile |
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Quinz also didn't take to the fences as a 7 yr-old last year
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it's experience that counts not the age.
7 year olds are normally inexperienced big fella thanks did run well,but his mark was blown,and was never campaigned like a grand national winner |
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Big Fella Thanks made at least 2 significant jumping errors when he ran as a 7yo. He was a novice that season and his first win over fences had been just a couple of months before.
Subsequent Nationals suggest he never had the stamina for the race, even if the jumping went well |
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The youngest winner was a 4yo, the oldest 18 I think but am not sure about the 18 yo, PETER SEMPLE was his name, the Grand National history throws up MANY anomalies, ACETICS SILVER was shipwrecked off the coast of Ireland and won the race a few days later, the race used to be run regularly during a week day
until the Labour government, needing to recover manufacture after WW11, decreed that the race be run on a Saturday, as too many people did not turn up for work because they were listening to the Big Race, however the race was last run on a Friday in 1957 and won by SUNDEW. |
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organisedconfusion is an experienced chaser for his age,but makes jumping errors.
will he be a better jumper at 8? |
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Wasn't there a thread saying that French Breds could not win GRAND NAIONALS?
Lutteur 11 was a French bred 5yo at odds of 11/2, around the early 20th century, later MON MOME dashed that trend. There is not a one size fits all with our Grand National. The Lamb was the smallest winner not once but twice and a GREY. Full sisters won CONSECUTIVE NATIONALS, name Emblem and Emblematic, nothing is set in stone. |
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like long run aged 6 winnning the gold cup
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I have wondered if the fact that Mon Mome is a French bred meant that he was largely ignored. With hindsight he should never have been 100-1. Also I could not see how Don't Push It could go off at 10-1jf. I do think trends and stats are always a good fuide not neccassarily to find you the winner but rule out shorter priced horses.
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Early in the season that MON MOME won his national, he won a handicap at Cheltenham with the previous National winner,
COMPLY OR DIE, well beaten, needless to say I overlooked the form and I swear by form in MOST races. |
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Jasey, there was no good reason to oppose Long Run at six in the Gold Cup, which is commonly won by seven-year-olds.
The National is different. Even eight-year-olds only win once a decade. History tells you that any seven-year-old is right up against it. That is not to say they can't win. But if you want to back one, you'd better be sure that the odds are big enough to reflect the risk you're taking. The age issue makes a lot more sense to me than the question of where a horse was bred. Anyone who ruled out Mon Mome at 100-1 just because he was born in France should feel very cross with themselves. By the time a horse is nine, you should be able to judge him by his form, not his provenance |
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Jasey, there was no good reason to oppose Long Run at six in the Gold Cup, which is commonly won by seven-year-olds.
The National is different. Even eight-year-olds only win once a decade. History tells you that any seven-year-old is right up against it. That is not to say they can't win. But if you want to back one, you'd better be sure that the odds are big enough to reflect the risk you're taking. The age issue makes a lot more sense to me than the question of where a horse was bred. Anyone who ruled out Mon Mome at 100-1 just because he was born in France should feel very cross with themselves. By the time a horse is nine, you should be able to judge him by his form, not his provenance |
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Oh splendid. Maybe I should say it a third time.
New technology baffles pishd old hack |
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there would have been,but long run had chasing experience more common with a older horse.
find me a 7 year old with a nice weight,won at 3 miles,12 chase starts,and never fallen. why would you not back it? |
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Very few 6yos ever tried to win the Gold Cup. 7yos in the National are more common. But you're right Jasey - if horse fits the rest of the profile, why not.
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A bloke I worked with, told after one Grand National, that he backed every horse that had not fallen in it's previous 6 races, newspapers printed form figures for 6 outings then, I asked how he had fared, he replied they ALL FELL.
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What would you have thought of this one, jasey?
Jurancon was 7 in the 2004 National. It was his 8th start over fences, 16 months after the first, which he had won. He carried 10-7. He was well in after winning a valuable 3m5f handicap chase by 15 lengths at the end of Feb after the weights came out. He ran off the same mark. He had never fallen or unseated. McCoy rode. They fell at the fourth. Only one example of course, but it's not like there are no others. Still, if you'd rather be backing horses like that at 10-1 (his SP) to do what no horse has done in 72 years, go for your life. Look, I'm not saying 7yos have no chance. But have some respect for the task they face |
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i do,i agree with you,but it would have been jurancons chase starts that would have put me off backing him,and not his age
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So, if he'd had another 4 runs around Taunton and Newton Abbot in his novice season, would he have been a bet for you?
You can't tell me that a 7yo with the right profile has the same chance as a 9yo with the right profile. It is plainly not the case |
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Gosh, what do I sound like? Time to go drink something
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yes i would have backed him.
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People often say Mon Mome was ignored because he was a French Bred but that wasn't the reason I (or I suspect a lot of people) ruled him out. He had a FAR more compelling stat against him & that was his run in 2008:
mid-division, headway 18th, ridden approaching 3 out, soon beaten 57L+ It's extremely unusual (in fact I can't think of another example in recent history) for a horse to get tonked into 10th place by over 50L then come back & win. Horses with previous GN form who go onto win at a later attempt have generally either run very well or fallen (or both) the year they lost. I've always thought the Mon Mome race was a fluke, 10 horses bunched up still near the end (and two of them Cerium & Arteea!) The handicapper has certainly gone easy on him this year. Can't think of any other winner who was allowed to have another go carrying 6lb less than when he won it! |
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They might have been bunched at the turn for home, Wado, as happens every few years in the National, but he won by 12 lengths in the end. Comply Or Die and State Of Play in the places make it look a pretty regular National result to me.
He had flopped in 2008 but he'd been off for almost a year until 2 months before the race, so it can't have been the ideal preparation and he was only 8 at the time. |
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They might have been bunched at the turn for home, Wado, as happens every few years in the National, but he won by 12 lengths in the end. Comply Or Die and State Of Play in the places make it look a pretty regular National result to me.
He had flopped in 2008 but he'd been off for almost a year until 2 months before the race, so it can't have been the ideal preparation and he was only 8 at the time. Too easy to write it off as a fluke just because he was a huge price. Red Marauder was a fluke. Mon Mome was the best-handicapped horse on the day |
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Too easy to say fluke just cos he was a huge price.
Red Marauder was a fluke, with Paddy's Return taking out six or seven at the Canal Turn. Mon Mome was the best-handicapped horse on the day and lots of horses had a perfectly fair chance to beat him if they could. |
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Oh ffs. Time to give up this online ranting malarky
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Is it relevant?
Well, there hasn't been a 7 year old winner of the National in the last 72 years. Make what you want of that. |
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Bogskar, ridden by Mervyn Jones and trained by Lord Stalbridge at Pound Stables near Newbury, and carrying 10-04 was the last 7 year old to win the National in 1940.
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You have to look beyond age as a number (and don't forget, not all horses 'birthday' is january 1st on year of foaling irrespective of whether they were born on 2nd January or 31st December.
Is it their maturity or their experience that counts against a 7 year old? If you think it's the former, then you don't back them. If it's the latter then something like Organisedconfusion will appeal as he has paid his dues over fences, despite his 'tender' years. |
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scrub the 'not' in line 1 above
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yes i agree with that roger.
winning the GN is normally a plan,thought of a few years before,which would be difficult to do with a 7 year old. tom taaffe has said,the GN has been treacles plan from the age of three |