Grand National
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So it seems that everyone has their view on how to pick the Grand National simply by studying previous results; here is mine, along with a few random thoughts on why I think the trends are relevant.
First, the criteria themelves:
Age: must be aged 8-12. Not rocket science as to why this stacks up, knocks out a few.
Weight: getting controversial now, with all kinds of versions of this trend knocking around. Ultimately it makes no sense to have a hard and fast cut off mark above which a horse CANNOT win, but it DOES make sense the more weight you carry, the harder it is to win the race. FWIW, all the horses carrying 11-0 or above also fail at least one more of my criteria, so I am ruling them all out.
Previous distance won: must have won a chase over 24f. There was a string of 3 winners around 2000 who had "only" won over 24f, most recent winners have won over at least 25f.
Size of field won win: must have won a chase with 12+ runners.
Runs in season: must have run 4-6 times. Would you rule out a horse with 7 runs? or 3? Each to his own i guess. Ballabriggs had only 3 times last year but with form figures of 112, was clearly race fit. Different horses will take different amounts of racing different ways; but ultimately it makes sense that you need a horse that is race fit without being totally knackered!
Wins in season: no more than 1. Obviously Ballabriggs had won twice, but these were both Novice Hurdles and therefore did not impact his handicap mark which is obviously the point of this trend. Otherwise the only "recent" exception I am aware of is Lord Gyllene, so I am happy to stick with this one.
Previous Grand National form: only Mon Mome in recent times has won the race after previously running unplaced. Amberleigh House was placed, and quite a few had fallen. Again, whilst there may always be some kind of mitigating circumstances, if you werent good enough to win it before, chances are you wont be now.
Days since last run: no horse in recent times had its last race more than 49 days before the big day. Taking this cut off point throws out a couple with apparently decent chances, most notably Chicago Grey. Why 49 and not, say, 59. Well, set the cut off point where you want, 49 is simply the statistic that no horse in recent times has defied. FWIW, for the sake of 7 days I will be keeping Chicago Grey onside.
So there you have it: to win the Grand National, you need a fit, well weighted, well handicapped horse with proven form over long distances and in large fields. Who would have thought it?!
Oh yeah, the horses. Unless I have misread some form (and I may have done, so apologies if I have, but then again, Do Your Own Research), the horses passing all my criteria are: Sunnyhill Boy, Rare Bob, Killyglen. As mentioned Chicago Grey only fails by dint of having his last run a week longer ago than ideal and I will also be keeping him onside.
Good luck all!
First, the criteria themelves:
Age: must be aged 8-12. Not rocket science as to why this stacks up, knocks out a few.
Weight: getting controversial now, with all kinds of versions of this trend knocking around. Ultimately it makes no sense to have a hard and fast cut off mark above which a horse CANNOT win, but it DOES make sense the more weight you carry, the harder it is to win the race. FWIW, all the horses carrying 11-0 or above also fail at least one more of my criteria, so I am ruling them all out.
Previous distance won: must have won a chase over 24f. There was a string of 3 winners around 2000 who had "only" won over 24f, most recent winners have won over at least 25f.
Size of field won win: must have won a chase with 12+ runners.
Runs in season: must have run 4-6 times. Would you rule out a horse with 7 runs? or 3? Each to his own i guess. Ballabriggs had only 3 times last year but with form figures of 112, was clearly race fit. Different horses will take different amounts of racing different ways; but ultimately it makes sense that you need a horse that is race fit without being totally knackered!
Wins in season: no more than 1. Obviously Ballabriggs had won twice, but these were both Novice Hurdles and therefore did not impact his handicap mark which is obviously the point of this trend. Otherwise the only "recent" exception I am aware of is Lord Gyllene, so I am happy to stick with this one.
Previous Grand National form: only Mon Mome in recent times has won the race after previously running unplaced. Amberleigh House was placed, and quite a few had fallen. Again, whilst there may always be some kind of mitigating circumstances, if you werent good enough to win it before, chances are you wont be now.
Days since last run: no horse in recent times had its last race more than 49 days before the big day. Taking this cut off point throws out a couple with apparently decent chances, most notably Chicago Grey. Why 49 and not, say, 59. Well, set the cut off point where you want, 49 is simply the statistic that no horse in recent times has defied. FWIW, for the sake of 7 days I will be keeping Chicago Grey onside.
So there you have it: to win the Grand National, you need a fit, well weighted, well handicapped horse with proven form over long distances and in large fields. Who would have thought it?!
Oh yeah, the horses. Unless I have misread some form (and I may have done, so apologies if I have, but then again, Do Your Own Research), the horses passing all my criteria are: Sunnyhill Boy, Rare Bob, Killyglen. As mentioned Chicago Grey only fails by dint of having his last run a week longer ago than ideal and I will also be keeping him onside.
Good luck all!
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I'm considering backing Le Beau Bai NRNB in the expectation connections will take him out unless it's soft. He also fails the days ran by 7 days and has had 2 wins this year. However he is still only 1lb higher than his highest winning mark and he has twic placed in grade 3 company off higher marks. The way he stayed on dourly in the Welsh National suggests this extreme trip could bring about further improvement. A worry is he does tend to put the odd awful run in, unless connections were getting his handicap mark down on those occasions.
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What about previous course form. I know that the stats note previous Grand National form yet could we equate perhaps Beecher form. Rare Bob faded out of it behind West End Rocker which puts me off, unless of course it was a case of not being fit,
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sunnyhillboy is a big stats horse,which i have backed,but with the ground looking like its going to be soft,will count agains him big time.
GC,WER,LBB,RB all come into the reckoning now,along with some of the irish plodders |
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Hi Jasey, why do you think it will count against him? Too much of a stamina test? On the rp website his record on ground recorded as soft is 1113, one of which was listed hurdle at Sandown.
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In selecting Killyglen and going agsinst your rule 7 (previous Grand National form), are you knowingly forgiving his fall a few fences out last year?
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He said a few winners had previously fell.
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Correct, falling does not count (in my analysis) as finishing unplaced.
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I think you have to have Kilyglen onside. Looked to still be going quite well last year and is 5lb lower now. I'm not entirely convinced e'll stay the distance but can't leave him unbacked.
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mich
its just what i have heard jonjo say about SHB loving good ground. not a good chasing record on soft either m8 |
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Killyglen was making fiddling mistakes prior to his fall, last year.
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Decent ananlysis Ilnamar
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Killyglen was not jumping overly well last year. Surely its got to be Rare Bob in the trends but how can anyone back him after the Beecher. He faded out of it, when was the last time a GN winner had this kind of course form.
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Fair enough Jase. Difficult to know how good the drainage is and predict how much rainfall there will be. I can see the ground actually coming up more like good to soft.
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hope so
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Ilnamer - The 49 day trend is something that I have always used - For me though the National is a week later than normal - I guess due to Easter? Thus maybe 56 days should be the cut off anyway???
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Thanks Ilnamar - I always enjoy reading your legendary thread.
bit - The vast majority ran in the last 5 weeks (18 of the last 20?). |
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I agree strontuim - however the National is normally the first weekend in April sometimes the second (e.g around the 9th) - but its never been as late as this - i think? Therefore for horses taking prep runs etc the time between them runs and the National will be longer. If the National had been run last week (as is normally the case) then lots more horses would fall under 49 days....
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Ok - I stand corrected - 2007 National was run on the 14th April - I'll stick to the 49 day principal! - That leaves Killyglen, Rare Bob and Always Waining for me
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The thing about Kilyglen is that straight away he's been laid out for the GN again. This being the case I'm assuming the jockey thought the horse had a lot left to give when he fell last year. Maybe Ballabrigs making that bad misake in front of him put him off a bit?
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The question about all Aintree form is a fair one that I hadnt considered before...here is the Aintree form of the last 10 winners:
Ballabriggs: None Dont Push It: 5,17,1,4 (first 2 were over hurdles) Mon Mome: 1,10 (just 3 years between runs!!) Comply or Die: None Silver Birch: 1,F No6valverde: None Hedgehunter: F Amberleigh House: B,1,9,2,3,2 Montys Pass: 2 (Topham) Bindaree: 7,4 (first was over hurdles) Quite interesting...all winners who had previously run at Aintree had at least placed on all completed runs in chases, with the exception of Mon Mome's tenth in the National and Amberleigh House who could be forgiven one poor run in 5 completions. So you dont need to have run at Aintree beforem but if you have run in a chase you need to have run well. Not great for Rare Bob. Good for Killyglen, inconclusive for SHB and Chicao Grey |
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How is it not good for Rare Bob? He's been placed and unseated when challenging 2 out. He only ran bad when it was very heavy ground when nearly all horses struggled to get home.
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I was thinking primarily of all previous form over the National fences. GCW is correct in that Rare Bob has sound previous form at Aintree and his try over the National fences was on heavy ground with top weight. I can forgive him for that in retrospect, but he has won on soft/heavy before so it could be that he is a horse who just struggles to save energy while jumping the bigger fences.
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I'm not backing Rare Bob just pointing out his Aintree form is fine. I think Killyglen and Sunnyhillboy are going to be my bets as I am a trends fan for this race and they keep popping up everywhere.
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ive been on for weeks but isnt killyglen a better horse on really good ground
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yes,but he has won on soft.
i am on SHB and Killy,soft ground is a big worry for both |
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It won't be soft come saturday
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He handles soft well. His win at Down Royal showed him very capable on soft ground.
Just watched last years race and one point i will make is that the jockey of Killyglen RM Power will know the horse much better this time around as it was the first time he had ridden him over fences. Yet Killyglen does not jump like a Grand National winner and he will once again play russian roulette with the fences. Not for me. |
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but that is his only fall,so can't be that bad a jumper
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Ilnamar, you say you are ruling out every horse 11st and above but the last three winners have been 11st, 11st 5lbs and 11st.
I have a feeling that backing that magic band of 9-11yr olds carrying 10st 6lbs - 10st 12lbs has gone forever with the new stat going up to 11st 7lb which brings an awful more horses in to play. |
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Jasey yes but when he fell he blundered the previous fence. If you look at his fencing at Down Royal it was sketchy in the first half but then improved but i just think a GN needs show some brains and Killyglen seems very naive at his fences most of the time without falling but he is 1/1 over the Aintree fences because you cant get away with it. Look at the way he jumped the last hurdle at Cheltenham behind Oscargo. Yes a hurdle but he was absolutely clueless when hitting it, landing on all fours, probably due to tiredness but still he makes clown like errors without falling.
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I think to discard Cappa Bleu for only have 3 runs is severe. He has obviously run well as his figures indicate 113...
Ballabriggs similarly had 3 runs last season, so for my own benefit i think he fits the trends. |
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Statistics don't win races, horses do!!!!!!
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