Grand National
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There was a lot of talk about the Gold Cup for this fella before Chelters
anyway he goes for the Betfair Bowl and is available at 6/1 and it will be his first go at 3 miles and it could really suit him
the opposition is not great in terms of strength in depth (Riverside Theatre and Burton Port main contenders)
Medermit has a length to make up on RT from the Ryan Air and there has to be a great chance he can find the improvement over the longer trip
great value and will be a max bet in the place market for me
anyway he goes for the Betfair Bowl and is available at 6/1 and it will be his first go at 3 miles and it could really suit him
the opposition is not great in terms of strength in depth (Riverside Theatre and Burton Port main contenders)
Medermit has a length to make up on RT from the Ryan Air and there has to be a great chance he can find the improvement over the longer trip
great value and will be a max bet in the place market for me
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Judo where is Medermit available at 6/1 as would look bet to nothing if cutting out errors,as Riverside maybe going Punchestown?
Best price ive seen is 9/2. Good luck for Aintree!
Best price ive seen is 9/2. Good luck for Aintree!
Can't say I agree with him being good value at 6/1 and as little as 5.5 on betfair even more so. He's never raced at 3 miles before (although by the looks of it, it should suit him). He finds it very hard to get his head in front.
Also Riverside Theatre has never shown his best form at Cheltenham and unlike Medermit is proven over 3miles having been placed in a Gold Cup. While I have nothing against Medermit and am fond of the horse, I don't think he's quite good enough to win a Grade 1.
The value in the market early on seems to be Albertas Run. He's getting no younger but he has proven course form here and spring is the best time to catch him. He also has very little to find with Riverside Theatre and Medermit, So at the prices and for value I will go for Albertas Run over Riverside Theatre.
Also Riverside Theatre has never shown his best form at Cheltenham and unlike Medermit is proven over 3miles having been placed in a Gold Cup. While I have nothing against Medermit and am fond of the horse, I don't think he's quite good enough to win a Grade 1.
The value in the market early on seems to be Albertas Run. He's getting no younger but he has proven course form here and spring is the best time to catch him. He also has very little to find with Riverside Theatre and Medermit, So at the prices and for value I will go for Albertas Run over Riverside Theatre.
Isn't Albertas more likely to go for the Melling?
Re Medermit, he does seem to be turning in to something of a serial loser always finding one too good - another forpadydeplasterer? But he always runs his race and as stevo says an each way bet to nothing. As he also says RIverside is not a certain runner.
What a Friend should be fresh and has won the race before - ok he's a dodgepot, but he could well be in the mix with horses who had hard races at Cheltenham.
Re Medermit, he does seem to be turning in to something of a serial loser always finding one too good - another forpadydeplasterer? But he always runs his race and as stevo says an each way bet to nothing. As he also says RIverside is not a certain runner.
What a Friend should be fresh and has won the race before - ok he's a dodgepot, but he could well be in the mix with horses who had hard races at Cheltenham.
there is a very good chance that King has got the horse wrong from the start and that he is in fact an out and out stayer
I am not expecting Albertas to run in this race and am not frightened of anything other than RT really - and even then he only has a length to find from Ryan Air which could easily do
and there is always the chance that RT bounces after two relatively quick races after long lay off - he certainly had a very hard race at Chelters
BaldFred goes 6/1 Medermit 1/5 1-2-3
cracking bet
I am not expecting Albertas to run in this race and am not frightened of anything other than RT really - and even then he only has a length to find from Ryan Air which could easily do
and there is always the chance that RT bounces after two relatively quick races after long lay off - he certainly had a very hard race at Chelters
BaldFred goes 6/1 Medermit 1/5 1-2-3
cracking bet
Agree Judo 6s Medermit and 9s Albertas Run if showing,should be getting good run for money for sure.
Time for Rupert looks big here at 14s if getting over his cracking run in the g/c, bit of rain about and a lead in Nacarat
Yeah I thought he looked a reasonable price Zilzal.
But I have taken a chance on the rogue WAF
Just think he will be fresher than most and on his running in last years GC he might go close, 14/1 also.
But I have taken a chance on the rogue WAF
Just think he will be fresher than most and on his running in last years GC he might go close, 14/1 also.
agree with colldog - dont think this is an eway bet at all. Either will improve for the trip and could win, or not stay and out with the washing. They will go a good gallop round here and any stamina ****s will be tested. If in the Melling he would be a solid eway bet, but not in this - could well win though if improving for step up.
As you know, Judo, I've been an advocate of a 3m+ Medermit and think King ran him in the wrong race twice this season. Would urge a degree of caution here though, as although the trainer has finally picked the right race, typicaly he is doing it at the wrong time.....as Medermit's post-Cheltenham efforts do not make for particularly positive reading, do they?
It would be a shame if he chucked in a clunker here and the yard drew the conclusion that he didn't stay.
Two horses who should be fresher than most and definitely catch the eye at the prices are Albertas Run at 9/1 and Poquelin at 20/1. With BP in this race there has to be a chance Albertas will go Melling so Poquelin at 20/1 e/w looks the opening salvo to me.
It would be a shame if he chucked in a clunker here and the yard drew the conclusion that he didn't stay.
Two horses who should be fresher than most and definitely catch the eye at the prices are Albertas Run at 9/1 and Poquelin at 20/1. With BP in this race there has to be a chance Albertas will go Melling so Poquelin at 20/1 e/w looks the opening salvo to me.
...joint second in on officials, top rated RPR....and that Giant Bolster form when trying to give him chunks doesn't read too bad now, does it?
20/1.
20/1.
Albertas will surely go in the 20 furling race and Poquelin is quite simply not a Grade 1 horse (and in any case I am not worried about any of the Nicholls horses who seem off colour)
I don't rate the Gold Cup form highly at all and will not be worrying about TFR, WAF, DH, BP and others - it may turn out the other way but I can't bet on that eventuality.
This then leaves me with Medermit, RT, Hunt Ball, Nacarat and a couple of rags
Of those, the one with a reason to improve again is Medermit. He has long looked like a stayer and the extra 4 furlongs could bring about improvement not least in his jumping and at the price he has to be my bet although I do take the point about what form he may turn up in at this time of year. But you can say that about others and both BP and RT will be having their third starts after long lay offs - both had hard races at Chelters which could easily have left a mark on them AND no doubt Hendo had them cherry ripe for those races.
We shall see
I don't rate the Gold Cup form highly at all and will not be worrying about TFR, WAF, DH, BP and others - it may turn out the other way but I can't bet on that eventuality.
This then leaves me with Medermit, RT, Hunt Ball, Nacarat and a couple of rags
Of those, the one with a reason to improve again is Medermit. He has long looked like a stayer and the extra 4 furlongs could bring about improvement not least in his jumping and at the price he has to be my bet although I do take the point about what form he may turn up in at this time of year. But you can say that about others and both BP and RT will be having their third starts after long lay offs - both had hard races at Chelters which could easily have left a mark on them AND no doubt Hendo had them cherry ripe for those races.
We shall see
Has to be Nacarat at 12/1 for me.
He has gone the Kempton Racing Post Chase > Aintree route 3 times now and won once, so not the best strike rate, but still not bad.
He is a course and distance winner, but have to admit his Bowl win was a really weak renewal with Caroles Legacy, Deep Purple and Follow the Plan; but Aintree certainly plays to his strengths, will hopefully get his good ground, and despite getting on abit, I think he is a good ew chance.
He has gone the Kempton Racing Post Chase > Aintree route 3 times now and won once, so not the best strike rate, but still not bad.
He is a course and distance winner, but have to admit his Bowl win was a really weak renewal with Caroles Legacy, Deep Purple and Follow the Plan; but Aintree certainly plays to his strengths, will hopefully get his good ground, and despite getting on abit, I think he is a good ew chance.
he was on my short list of 4 Well Chief as you can see in my previous post. Probably need a couple to under perform to win the race but that scenario is far from unlikely as discussed on the thread
fascinating to see the Kempton/ Ryan Air/ Gold Cup form clash so quickly
fascinating to see the Kempton/ Ryan Air/ Gold Cup form clash so quickly
Hhhmmm...'Poquelin quite simply not a Grade 1 horse' is a questionable statement, in the context of this race, for a number of reasons, judo.
Are you saying he could never win a Grade 1, no matter what the oppo, simply because it has 'Grade 1' in the title? Sounds a little too simplistic to me.
As you've rightly deduced, there are a number of horses who look like they could not run to form here so I wouldn't get too hamstrung about the race title. Poquaz has barely been on the track this season and looks ripe for a PB imo.
....and Nicholls struggling? 60% RTF and 6 of his last 10 runners, before start of play today, won....
Are you saying he could never win a Grade 1, no matter what the oppo, simply because it has 'Grade 1' in the title? Sounds a little too simplistic to me.
As you've rightly deduced, there are a number of horses who look like they could not run to form here so I wouldn't get too hamstrung about the race title. Poquaz has barely been on the track this season and looks ripe for a PB imo.
....and Nicholls struggling? 60% RTF and 6 of his last 10 runners, before start of play today, won....
I would not dismiss Poque either but I was put off by his form figures at Aintree. Many attempts and only one place.
I can see the appeal with Medermit, but he has been on the go since October when he won the Haldon Gold Cup and has been involved in some tough races this season, 2 at Cheltenham when runner-up to Quant and RT and also at Ascot when runner-up to RT again. He is a consistent horse and genuine but he'll have to be really tough to put in another big effort over a trip longer than he has tried before. That's my take anyway.
Taken a chance on WAF because he is a former winner of the race and fell at the second fence in the Gold Cup so should be fit and ready to go well. He needs to improve his jumping, but if he has a good round then on ability he should be in the mix. He was 4th in last years GC behind a fresh Long Run and Denman.
I can see the appeal with Medermit, but he has been on the go since October when he won the Haldon Gold Cup and has been involved in some tough races this season, 2 at Cheltenham when runner-up to Quant and RT and also at Ascot when runner-up to RT again. He is a consistent horse and genuine but he'll have to be really tough to put in another big effort over a trip longer than he has tried before. That's my take anyway.
Taken a chance on WAF because he is a former winner of the race and fell at the second fence in the Gold Cup so should be fit and ready to go well. He needs to improve his jumping, but if he has a good round then on ability he should be in the mix. He was 4th in last years GC behind a fresh Long Run and Denman.
yep fair enough he is a monkey.
He hit the first fence in the AOn at Newbury and obviously fell lto, but on ability there is not much between this lot so will take a chance he has a clear round.
He hit the first fence in the AOn at Newbury and obviously fell lto, but on ability there is not much between this lot so will take a chance he has a clear round.
WAF at least has a bit of course form.
Poquelin seems so much better at Cheltenham than elsewhere. I was suprised to see him entered in the Bowl at all - you'd imagine the Silver Trophy at Cheltenham next week would be his for the taking again and it's a reasonable pot.
I'm wary of the Gold Cup horses who ran well including Burton Port and TFR. it's a tough race to weight up properly before the final decs.
Poquelin seems so much better at Cheltenham than elsewhere. I was suprised to see him entered in the Bowl at all - you'd imagine the Silver Trophy at Cheltenham next week would be his for the taking again and it's a reasonable pot.
I'm wary of the Gold Cup horses who ran well including Burton Port and TFR. it's a tough race to weight up properly before the final decs.
11 left in after the final declarations
Ryan Air form represented by Riverside Theatre & Medermit
Gold Cup form by Burton Port (4th), Diamond Harry (PU), WAF (fell) and Carruthers (10th)
Added into the mix are Hunt Ball and Nacarat
On Official Ratings 3 stand out:
Riverside Theatre 170
Medermit 167
Burton Port 166
then
What a Friend 162
Nacarat 162
All the rest are below 160 and so have improvement to find. The fascinating one is of course Hunt Ball, with his remarkable rise and colourful owner, who now faces the acid test. Given he is trading at around 6/1 there is certainly some confidence because normally a novice stepping into open Grade 1 company from a handicap would not be expected to figure so prominently. I have no real handle on how good he could be so this will reveal plenty
Not very original but really the winner should come from the top 3 rated runners and I have already got as much on Medermit at 6/1 that I can.
Really looking forward to this race because it will fill a lot of pieces of the post- Cheltenham jigsaw and will be informative for the King George.
Ryan Air form represented by Riverside Theatre & Medermit
Gold Cup form by Burton Port (4th), Diamond Harry (PU), WAF (fell) and Carruthers (10th)
Added into the mix are Hunt Ball and Nacarat
On Official Ratings 3 stand out:
Riverside Theatre 170
Medermit 167
Burton Port 166
then
What a Friend 162
Nacarat 162
All the rest are below 160 and so have improvement to find. The fascinating one is of course Hunt Ball, with his remarkable rise and colourful owner, who now faces the acid test. Given he is trading at around 6/1 there is certainly some confidence because normally a novice stepping into open Grade 1 company from a handicap would not be expected to figure so prominently. I have no real handle on how good he could be so this will reveal plenty
Not very original but really the winner should come from the top 3 rated runners and I have already got as much on Medermit at 6/1 that I can.
Really looking forward to this race because it will fill a lot of pieces of the post- Cheltenham jigsaw and will be informative for the King George.
Funny run, looked like he was nt gonna stay the stayed on from nowhere
It's funny how some horses either ignite something in you or not.
To me this is one of the most frustrating horses in training as he clearly possesses a lot of ability but when it comes to it, he always finds a way of getting beaten, whatever the trip, track or going is. Given that Riverside Theatre blew out big time this has to go down as a very disappointing run, yet, as others have alluded to, the extra distance seemed to help if anything.
Bad luck to those that backed him but maybe enough is enough now?
To me this is one of the most frustrating horses in training as he clearly possesses a lot of ability but when it comes to it, he always finds a way of getting beaten, whatever the trip, track or going is. Given that Riverside Theatre blew out big time this has to go down as a very disappointing run, yet, as others have alluded to, the extra distance seemed to help if anything.
Bad luck to those that backed him but maybe enough is enough now?
Yeh,funny run indeed,and a strange kind of race i thought,and fairly typical of a lot of races involving horses that ran at Cheltenham.Pretty much why i avoid punting at Aintree,well proper punting anyway.
As for Medermit,seems to me a horse that cant seem to win a race,hes admirable but just not a natural enough jumper over fences for me to ever be top notch.Think the Ryanair is the race that suits him best from what ive seen of him,dont think he will ever jump well enough to win a Gold Cup.
As for Medermit,seems to me a horse that cant seem to win a race,hes admirable but just not a natural enough jumper over fences for me to ever be top notch.Think the Ryanair is the race that suits him best from what ive seen of him,dont think he will ever jump well enough to win a Gold Cup.
horrible race - need to wipe it from my memory and not include in any future form assessments.
Eliminated all those who had hard race in Gold Cup and still could n't find one to finish in first three!
Eliminated all those who had hard race in Gold Cup and still could n't find one to finish in first three!
Riverside left his race at Chelt,and hes better off right handed anyway.
If he were mine i would thank my lucky stars he came back from the festival ok.How he won that i will never know,and personally dont think he should go near the place again.
If he were mine i would thank my lucky stars he came back from the festival ok.How he won that i will never know,and personally dont think he should go near the place again.
Even since I did my nuts on Medermit in the Champion Hurdle I have never seen him as a Grade 1 horse. He is good at Grade 3 or 2 level, i.e he could win a race at that level. But it would have to be a pretty weak affair for him to win a Grade 1.
Totally agree,the Ryanair is his best chance imo cos the best horses normally run in the QM or GC,but yeh,hes proving to me short of top class.
He could just be a professional dodgepot. He's 0 from 8 at Cheltenham now I think. He also seems a fair bit better in the first half of the season than the second. One to be wary of, but a shame as he clearly has ability.
He is no way a dodgepot Stront. He was very unlucky 2nd in the supreme, got badly hampered. His run in the Dec Gold Cup behind Quantativeeasing off 158 was also highly admirable imo.
He is just not grade 1 class, but a definate trier.
He is just not grade 1 class, but a definate trier.
Sorry Sint, I didn't mean that disparagingly, I was just being lazy - he just seems to get beaten somehow in every race - like forpady, and like Somersby used to. He's always got an excuse. I agree with you he's not top class but close - though with a difficult handicap mark now. I expect he's one I'll avoid in future and suck it up when he has the occasional win that will probably come.
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