Ruby's Mount

Prince de Beachene has been withdrawn hasnt he?

Well I guess that settles it! Ruby will have to go it alone..better send 'em a weetabix...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdppQNOLoNI&feature=youtu.be

The talk is he'll be on Seabass or maybe Own His Own, but OHO has really drifted on here so not sure what's going on there?

ty Gary, just have to keep'em peeled for now

That videos quality 'Form figures of 2212 reminds me of my trips to the bathroom' Filthy old cow.

if he's got any sense it will be midnight club.
I would lsy seabass like a shot,not got a prayer of lasting home

Lay

Just like King Johns Castle didn't before he came a gallant second?

And the connection between Seabass and King johns castle is??

Both haven't raced over extreme distances and both perceived to be non stayers.

Seabass 100% non stayer

Again, KJC was too

What did kjc win

He won 2nd place behind Comply Or Die.

Your point was that he won't stay, not that he will win. I was pointing out that he could easily stay, just like KJC did. And I very much doubt Ted would be sending him to Aintree if he thought he wouldn't stay, considering the small amount of runners he now has.

My point was that its a lay,and when i lay a horse 2nd may as well be last
Has seabass got one stat going for him?

I used to be a huge stats fan in this race. In the last couple of years though it has all changed and it seems you don't have to conform to the old ways. I just feel Seabass is a bit of an unknown quantity and could keep improving despite the extra distance.

Stats are still very strong,probably stronger than ever
Dont push it is the only non stats horrse 2 win in the last 20 or so years,and there were hardly any stats based horses in that race,bottom weight carried 10 6.

Ballabriggs too. Before that the stats were holding up. Clearly something has changed and with that in mind I am happy to already be on Seabass at bigger prices. He may not win, he may not stay, but he has one hell of a chance if he does as he's clearly thriving and on the upgrade.

Can't believe the price of On His Own.

Purely down to the Ruby factor?

Mainly the Ruby factor, with perhaps a couple of points further in view of the fact that Ruby's greatest fan is Pricewise.

Oh, and the layers who pushed it out to 60s or thereabouts the other night are probably scrabbling to cover their positions.

Value
Ballabriggs was a bang on stats horse

No he wasn't

Ballab missed on several of the stats I use, not least runs that season, wins that season and what amounts to class/previous career best. I haven't looked but I imagine he would have been quite low on Mordin factors.

Regular - re OHO, must be! He'd be massively inexperienced for a National winner (only 6 chases, 9 total races under rules), and he was pulled up in his only attempt over longer then 3 m.

Exactly Strontium. Well said.

Thats your stats.
How come paul jones of betrends  only ruled ballabriggs out because he was'nt irish trained.
He had him in his final 9

Racing angles (nick pullen) trends based tipster picked ballabriggs as well.
Its about how far you take stats.
Stats like french bred,headgear,grey horse,are utter pony

That's trye Jasey and I don't use any of those. I also have the utmost respect for Paul Jones who is an excellent analyst. He refined the weight trend very early so was very positive about Don't Push It when he won.

However, in the PJ written preview of last year I have he said "2nd favourite is the Don McCain Jr trained Ballabriggs who has been trained for the Grand National since clinging on to win last season's Kim Muir. Stamina could be the doubt with him as he only just lasted home as a novice to win at the Festival last year (though was aggresvely ridden) and then appeared to be outsatyed by Skippers Brig at Kelso in his final prep race and his first chase of the season" - which is not exactly gushing!

If one does want to use trends - and the National is a very strong trends race - one has to pick a set of rational trends to use and apply them. Some will turn out right, some wrong. They point is, they should be profitable ovber many runnings of the race. If you have the odd blip like Ballabriggs it doesn't matter as long as the method is sound (which is worth reviewing when there is a blip).