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Grand National
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20 Mar 12
22:22
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Date Joined:
05 Jan 10
TRAINER Noel Glynn can’t wait to send Becauseicouldntsee for the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree next month.
The nine-year-old ran superbly to be second to Jonjo O’Neill’s Sunnyhillboy – who could also head for the National – in last week’s Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
Becauseicouldntsee led for much of the way in the Kim Muir but was only caught late on by Sunnyhillboy before going down by four and a half lengths at the line.
Becauseicouldntsee fell at the second fence in last year’s National, but he is a best-priced 25-1 with Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral, BetVictor and **** for this year’s race.
And Glynn is hoping and expecting a much better run on April 14.
He said: “It was a good run at Cheltenham and it was just a pity that the winner didn’t get into the Pertemps, which Jonjo said was his first choice with Sunnyhillboy.
“He’s run a blinder, though, he jumped great and we’re looking forward to Aintree.
“It’s taken a bit out of him, he was cooped up in a small box for a few days and then there was the travelling so I hope he recovers. He’s used to being out in a field day and night.
“He’s fit as a flea, which is a bonus, and I just hope he gets further than last year.
“I’d like Nina (Carberry) to ride him in the National but she might have to ride her Uncle Arthur’s (Moore) horse (Organised- confusion) so Davy Condon might ride.”
Read More http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/2012/03/20/trainer-noel-glynn-looking-forward-to-sending-kim-muir-chase-runner-up-becauseicouldntsee-back-to-aintree-for-the-john-smith-s-grand-national-100252-30576702/#ixzz1ph75HX1p
The nine-year-old ran superbly to be second to Jonjo O’Neill’s Sunnyhillboy – who could also head for the National – in last week’s Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
Becauseicouldntsee led for much of the way in the Kim Muir but was only caught late on by Sunnyhillboy before going down by four and a half lengths at the line.
Becauseicouldntsee fell at the second fence in last year’s National, but he is a best-priced 25-1 with Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral, BetVictor and **** for this year’s race.
And Glynn is hoping and expecting a much better run on April 14.
He said: “It was a good run at Cheltenham and it was just a pity that the winner didn’t get into the Pertemps, which Jonjo said was his first choice with Sunnyhillboy.
“He’s run a blinder, though, he jumped great and we’re looking forward to Aintree.
“It’s taken a bit out of him, he was cooped up in a small box for a few days and then there was the travelling so I hope he recovers. He’s used to being out in a field day and night.
“He’s fit as a flea, which is a bonus, and I just hope he gets further than last year.
“I’d like Nina (Carberry) to ride him in the National but she might have to ride her Uncle Arthur’s (Moore) horse (Organised- confusion) so Davy Condon might ride.”
Read More http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/2012/03/20/trainer-noel-glynn-looking-forward-to-sending-kim-muir-chase-runner-up-becauseicouldntsee-back-to-aintree-for-the-john-smith-s-grand-national-100252-30576702/#ixzz1ph75HX1p
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Replies: 21
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backed it at 65 before Cheltenham (see my thread) but I will be laying it back soon, greening up
does fit 12/13 Mordin trends |
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I know it's a different race but the way Sunnyhillboy went past him at Cheltenham and then quickened away wouldn't make me think he was likely to reverse that form over another mile and a half. The only worry I have about Sunnyhillboy is his jumping but he's just the quirky sort who could be suited to this. I think his jumping has been put under pressure in the past by running over trips too short for him but looks thrown in based on his last run and historical form with Great Endeavour. Backed him at 40s in the Autumn and can't see any reason not to fancy him now although impossible to be confident in a race like this.
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I do think this horse will run a very big race in this years grand national and is at this stage my main fancy. As above poster says, he fits almost every trend. At chelters he gave me the impression he was done for a bit of toe at the end. On good/soft ground over a flat 4m4f of Aintree would be right up his street and if he is still up there at bechers on 2nd circuit i certainly wont be a layer!
At 20s 5 places b365 nrnb i think he is stonking value bet, certainly wont be anywhere near that price on the day, tops likely to be around 14s i reckon as he is a big trends horse in a big trends race! |
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Really like the chances of this one and have done a comprehensive National piece on my blog, enjoy: http://onetojump.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/grand-national-ante-post-look.html
This is the extract of my piece on becauseicouldntsee: I was really taken by his performance in this year's Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase, especially with the way that he jumped well throughout from the front. It pays to be out the front/handy in the National so that you don't get caught up in fallers etc. Therefore his style of running looks sure to suit so long as he stays on his feet! He fell at the second fence in last year's National, which is surprising given how sound his jumping usually is. One other concern I have is what he finds off the bridle. In his two Festival performances he has turned for home looking the best, only to find one too good on both occasions. He is clearly a thorough galloper which is no bad thing for this. But I am slightly concerned about what he will find as they come towards the finish. That said, he has a lot of sound form in the book with his run behind Poker De Sivola two years ago being strong form as he won the Bet 365 at Sandown last year. I am confident that he should be given another try and he can run a big race if he takes to the fences second time around. |
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I will back it if Nina is on board
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April 14th 1912,time 23.40 Titanic hits an iceberg,100th anniversary on Grand National day.
Be interesting if any of the owners of this horse were connected with the Titanic in any way!!topical tip?. |
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Trends, trends, trends. He misses the singlemost important trend. No win over 3 miles. Tell me the last horse to win with that millstone around their neck? Plus he's never won a handicap chase. There's always one too good it seems and in a race as competetive as this he'll find a fair few more too good. A more one paced giant of animal you are never likely to observe. If you use trends then there is one horse that ticks every single box and it is Rare Bob. Trends does NOT give Becauseicouldntsee.
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Roselier - I'm a keen trends man myself, but it does pay to look beyond the bare stat itself.
For example, a horse might have had two attempts at 3 miles, yet have been beaten by 'speedier' types. He might then have run well over a much longer distance, just getting touched off in the process. Regarding Becauseicouldn't see, he has form over 4 miles in the amateur riders chase at the Festival, where his comment over the 4 mile trip was: in touch on inside, hampered 17th, joined leader going well after 4 out, led next, ridden and hard pressed last, headed flat, kept on That might offer some hope to those hoping he'll be ok over the national trip, maybe if ridden slightly more conservatively. |
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That still doesn't answer the question of who was the last horse to win the National that hadn't won a chase over 3 miles? As for four milers did you know that Comply Or Die is the only horse to have won the National since 1998 that had previously won over four miles? When I think of all the four mile winners that have failed to land a blow in the race - Kendal Cavalier, Hollybank Buck, Ackzo, Paris Pike, Bear On Board, Young Kenny & Joes Edge it doesn't follow that form over four miles means that you will run well in the National. Character Building got closer to winning the same race as Becauseicouldntsee and didn't land a blow either. In fact the two horses that ran in the NH chase and then went on and won the National finished down the field - Silver Birch and Hedgehunter (made a mistake when challenging). NH Chase particpants actually have a far better record in the three other major Nationals and Sandown Gold Cup - POINT BARROW, TIMBERA, BESHABAR, HOT WELD, MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, POKER DE SIVOLA, TOPSHAM BAY, BUTLER'S CABIN et al.
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Royal Athlete?
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I keep having a look at this horse,the thing that bothers me the most is,he's fell 3 times out of 11 chase starts.Not a good stat considering the first 4 in last years race had only fell twice in there careers combined
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He'd won six including over 28f!
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It was 42 years ago - Gay Trip.
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Gay Trip (googled)
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has to have a great chance off 10.3.
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softer the going better for the lighter weights,weathers on the change as well.
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Bit of a drift on here. Anything to worry about?
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Has he lost a couple of legs - drift is substantial.
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worrying.
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look again at last years race, horse was not allowed his stride, that is why he fell.
if he bowls along on this softer ground, he could take some catching. will stay this trip on soft ground. davey condon, might just get a dream ride, you will get 28/1 saturday morning, so i would wait till then, 3 falls yes, 1 was a bad stumble, 1 was being held up(tactics totally wrong), and last years national, If he gets over the first 6, and in his stride, his price will tumble IR, definately 1 to keep the right side of. gl |
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I had already backed based on the run at Cheltenham, however I have been watching the replays of last years race and I don't think he will get round. He nearly went at the first than then just crumpled at the second. Yes, he was slightly being held up, but even so.
Bluesq, doing a fallers insurance market or you may just want to cover you bet with a Faller yes bet. |