And the 2012 Grand National winner is...

Cappa Bleu
Killyglen

Chicago Greys stablemate.

Same can be said of King Fontaine! Two good wins at Haydock in 2010 plus a decent show at Cheltenham in 2011. This horse has the same weight as last year, when, despite looking a diabolical jumper, he got round.
I wonder if there will be a timely return to form now the weights are out?
Haydock Grand National trial in February?

JUNIOR

mad max

Can we have some reasons please rather than just names.

Midnight Club , still travelling ok ish last year when hampered by Killyglen ,stayed on fine and jumped last few fences well , not like a tired horse ?? if that makes sense ?? if Ruby rides a Major Plus .. 27s at present at time of post ..

Mully read my Deep purple thread if he got in on 11st would have a monster chance

Other than that Cappa Bleu will likely get 10st 10lbs top trainer at prepping them for Aintree jumped really well at Haydock was I think 2nd or 3rd Fav in Denman's Hennessey.

Won a foxhunters like a class individual 10 years old perfect age great trial in the Welsh National staying on jumping economically on horrible ground carrying a decent weight there.

Looks a v gd each way play.

Junior could well win but Bl00dy hell off 153 minimum raised 16lbs I think for winning a mickey mouse festival race. Hardly makes sense for me at the prices.

Deep purple off the same mark, has won a Peterboro chase, a Charlie Hall been mixing it against the best and last time proved off top weight at Sandown how easily he got the 3m 5f. A monster monster chance at the Prices. Few horse have the class speed to win a Peterboro at Huntingdon and have the stamina to see out nearly 3 3/4 miles at Sandown

These are my major bets against the field and have played Fair Along at 200/1 plus for a few quid as he is a big price on his Henessey run.

after timer - according to pete in a weak field

Mully would be intrested to know your thoughts on KILLYGLEN
came down when still going well last year jumps well in the main likes decent ground i relly like this ones chance also deep purple hoping for a nice weight for this one chicago grey guaranteed stayer could go well to would be slightly worried it would be too far off the pace though

DB-that's one of my early four. Alfa Beat, Killyglen, Cappa Bleu & Chicago Grey.
I keep trying to find a long range forecast. Surely we must be due a wet mid-April this year?

MAJESTIC CONCORDE has been overlooked by many people. this horse was flying last year when fell in feak incident. for a wise trainer and a horse that has been laid out for this it is great value. ON THE NOSE AT 100-1 PLUS!!!!

There's a reason why Majestic Concorde has been overlooked - he isn't entered.

That wasn't very strategic was it Hard luck lad.

Beshabar, Oscar Time, Majestic Concorde out, and  he was loving it last year strategicnapper was right. Looks tantalisingly like more of the same for the McCain family. Lets hope the handicappers kind, time he relented on past winners. If their supposed to dead-heat perhaps the obligatory 8lb is too much. Ballabriggs please.

Paul Smith loves his Aintree Factor, I can't see him relenting somehow.

So does his brother Phil.

Can someone put up the new (?) entry rules.

Thanks

.http://www.britishhorseracing.com/grand ... al-review/

Sorry Tel, doesn't look as if that's working

.http://www.britishhorseracing.com/grand-national-review/

Thanks Fabulous

Cooldine

^ If you can ignore a few of his recent runs he has the touch of class that most National winners have and he looks like getting in on mark in mid 140s.  A number of RSA winners/placed horses have run well in the National and Carruthers who was well beaten that day won the Henessey off the same sort of mark

i like deep purple as he has that touch of class also a fan of killyglen but after watching a replay of last years race not so sure that he wasnt beginning to weaken when he fell if it was to be soft to heavy le beau bai must be on the shortlist

boy wonder, I've similar thoughts on Killyglen, though I googled 'Killyglen unlucky' and found his jockey quoted after last year's race 'very unlucky'

ok thanks

just watched it again killyglen made a mistake the fence before he fell granted he hadnt been asked a question but was it tiredness that caused the mistake and then the fall

Chicago Grey
Killyglen
Niche Market
Roulez Cool
State of Play
Sunnyhillboy
Synchronised
The Midnight Club
Uncle Junior
West End Rocker

I like all of these for different reasons. Chicago Grey, Midnight Club, Sunnyhillboy and Niche Market are my favourites - have to see what the weights come out like

WEST END ROCKER -

Nice list judorick-several of those I have an inkling for.

state of play nope, west end rocker nope, sychronised top weight so nope, Sunnyhillboy  has chances, MIdnight club unlucky last year, but usually these dont win.

Niche market not for me, Chicago grey maybe but its Ayr run was awful, is a speed favouring track like Aintree up his street or do the undulations of cheltenham  play to his strengths.

Chicago Grey has to be interesting as he is a classy, strong stayer. I'd be concerned by the way he races though. The National seems to favour prominent racers. I suspect this in because it gives the horses a clear look at the fences and keeps them, relatively, out of trouble. Plus they can get in to a good rhythm with their jumping. Chicago tends to be dropped in right at the back and make late progress in his races which may create several problems for him.

state of play nope, west end rocker nope, sychronised top weight so nope, Sunnyhillboy  has chances, MIdnight club unlucky last year, but usually these dont win.

Niche market not for me, Chicago grey maybe but its Ayr run was awful, is a speed favouring track like Aintree up his street or do the undulations of cheltenham  play to his strengths.

oh right, perhaps I should just let you pick my short list for me? I mean I only spent 2 days going through the Nick Mordin trends and making a spreadsheet. Perhaps you would like to see my full analysis?


National Shortlists
Notes: after reviewing the factors I have divided the runners into short list, short list, long short list and dismiss
Those in the shortlist  fit most of the trends and appear to fit a typical National winner profile – we will be paying close attention
All the other remaining shortlist and long shortlist horses could end up becoming of interest
Those on the dismiss list have little chance either of getting in or winning
Remember 42 will be eliminated and the weights will be crucial

Short List (10)

Chicago Grey
Killyglen
Niche Market
Roulez Cool
State of Play
Sunnyhillboy
Synchronised
The Midnight Club
Uncle Junior
West End Rocker

Short List (13)

Arbor Supreme
Ballabriggs
Becauseicouldntsee
Cooldine
Mon Mome
Neptune Equester
Northern Alliance
Organisedconfusion
Planet of Sound
Quiscover Fontaine
Rare Bob
Scotsirish
Some Target

Long Short List (10)

Alfa Beat
Always Waining
Calgary Bay
Deep Purple
King Fontaine
Massini's Maguire
Midnight Chase
Shakalakaboomboom
The Package
Vic Venturi

Will check again once the weights are out. I would be quite confident that the 2012 National winner is in the 33 listed above and fairly confident that he is in the 23 of the first two lists. So now it is a case of chunking down, finding out which are definite runners, following the form and so on. Many have been waiting for the weights to be published and they will be out having prep runs soon after

Suprised you haven't included Little Josh. Connections are desperate for this horse to run, but needs to be in top 4 over 3 miles first. Will do everything then can to ensure this happens I understand.

Little Josh hits 9 out of 13 trends but has yet to even place at 3 miles let alone win and he looks a certain non stayer. I can't bet them all and there are many stronger contenders than he. If he ends up winning then that's tough luck on me

Quantativeeasing and Little Josh would be apt names after this week. For me Planet of Sound and Rare Bob at the moment.

Jud no need for agression mate there your selections personally mine hedge around big bets on cappa bleu and deep purple at this stage

Have given my reasons for both out of interest can I ask why Cappa Bleu is not in your list of 40 given?

It's the way people come on and diss other peoples work in a couple of sentences that makes me mad - there's a shed load of work gone into those lists and then someone you don't know comes along and goes "blah blah that's no good"

Cappa Bleu only had 5 chases and that is enough for me to dismiss him unless they get about 3 runs into him before Aintree.

Okay apologies if it came across rude that wasnt my intentions

Fair enough for Cappa Bleu as your attacking this purely from a stats point of view

It's such a demanding race (big field, big fences, big crowd, the canal turn, the chair, etc), inexperience has to be a big negative for me, stats or no stats.

Stront ran in the Hennessy ran on gold cup day against a truck load of chasers winning fox hunters

3rd in Welsh national massive field not worried about the experience

Still we all have dreams at this stage so gd luck all

Indeed Give he has only run in 5 chases, they are good ones. He just wouldn't be for me. GL.

On the weights side of things, Cooldine must be thrown in.

Don't know if it is a certain runner though,

well done judorick in putting so much work in but i have spent rather a lot of time on it now myself and my very shortlist is west end rocker always right and deep purple could you tell me how you have dismissed always right please

Some nice contributions. No more fighting though please

A soft ground National would see Giles Cross have a great chance. Sound jumper, stays all day & will have a nice weight.
Sunnyhillboy also of interest to me.This one definitely has a big race in him. Ran a great race in last seasons Irish National showing his stamina. On a nice handicap mark, can see him winning at the festival & becoming favourite for the National with McCoy on board.
Prince de Beauchene, i think pick of the Mullins entries & will be Ruby's mount & Planet of Sound also on my shortlist.

I think Cooldine could be the handicap snip if he could recover anything like his previous form, but its  big if and Mulllins saying that he's not the horse he was, but off 147 and potentially carrying somewhere between 10-4 and 10-10 (depending on weight compression of higher rated horses and possible weight rises after publication)he wouldnt have to be.

west end rocker all day , stays , jumps and has a touch of class was brought down last year , this year has won over the national fences this year so being brought down last year hasnt affected his confidence plus alan king says he is the best chance he has ever had of wining a national, prob will get in off a good weight think he is a good ew bet

Personally will probably get some stick for this but cannot see this horse West End Rocker winning, not sure on class angle looks like its ground dependant and wants it softish.

When you look at the likes of Deep Purple who has won a peterboro and won a 3m 3/4 race at Sandown easily off top weight synchronised who is 4th fav for Gold cup.

Cappa Bleu who destroyed a fox hunters and was talked of as a gold cup winner, Cooldine who has won a RSA, Planet of Sound who finished 2nd in a Hennessey, and won at Punchestown. A unexposed horse in Sunnyhillboy who could sneak in having finished 3rd in Irish national with nice weight.

West End Rocker unless it comes up testing is plenty short enough Imo.

The Midnight Club.

Weights out this afternoon

Everyone happy with their fancies and their weights?

Happy with Seabass, don't know if he's going though.

Hope you right Mully
GB / Aint 14th Apr / Grand National     Chicago Grey     Back         10-Dec-11
12:39           65     10.00         65     19-Dec-11 19:43

Couldnt get the PR seats this year so i will be up above you,maybe throw a glass of champers down all goin well

Stewarts House for Me.
Progressive since Tim Vaughan,ran two good races this season,course winner and has a nice weight.

sgt bilko -Don't spill it on my freshly dry-cleaned suit

Ballabriggs. Won it last year and he's strongly fancied for a repeat.

neptunes collonges seems to me to have the right profile to win this race, he has been dropped 7lbs and run 2 decent races, the later giving 26 lbs to a young improoving horse hold on julio. He has been alloted 11.5 for this race but with young harry derham taking off another 7lbs, 10.12 looks a very winnable mark, i took the 70,s available

Can he claim in the National? I thought not.

strontium, your right, can't claim in National.

gone through the trends, as per evry Grand National, and it's left me with a shortlist of 3:

West End Rocker
Giles Cross
Planet of Sound

Have been working on my shortlists and have now backed these:

Cappa Bleu
Chicago Grey
Sunnyhillboy
The Midnight Club
Killyglen
Niche Market
Roulez Cool

There are quite a few more possibilities that I will consider when more evidence comes to light in particular West End Rocker, Uncle Junior and a couple more

The Package 33's into 10's on the day (housewives' favourite, much to the gall of DJ who is forced to take unders for his 2 year plot as a result).

Always a complete and utter lottery. Will be backing whatever Walsh and McCoy ride?

Great

what great?

the national is far from a lottery

its a fairly predictable marathon handicap chase and the winners have similar profiles in that they have decent amount of experience but are not old has beens, they have proven stamina and class generally having won at 3 miles plus and at least in class 2, young and old alike struggle to win so focus on 8 to 11 yos and discard the rest and you will do alright in the long run

problem is people want to back one horse and hope to get the winner and in my very long experience this is unlikely to be a successful strategy. Find several that fit the profile and split your stakes across the group to give yourself as much chance as possible because the likelihood of non completion is quite high