Grand National
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Horse name and reasoning?
I'll start with Chicago Grey (currently 50/1 BF)
Reason: Some of the runs this season have been too bad to be true. Handbrake jobs? Plot horse? Who knows? But I do know this years race has been the intended target so very difficult to leave out of calculations.
Over to you...
I'll start with Chicago Grey (currently 50/1 BF)
Reason: Some of the runs this season have been too bad to be true. Handbrake jobs? Plot horse? Who knows? But I do know this years race has been the intended target so very difficult to leave out of calculations.
Over to you...
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Replies: 71
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Cappa Bleu
Killyglen  |
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Chicago Greys stablemate.
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Same can be said of King Fontaine! Two good wins at Haydock in 2010 plus a decent show at Cheltenham in 2011. This horse has the same weight as last year, when, despite looking a diabolical jumper, he got round.
I wonder if there will be a timely return to form now the weights are out? Haydock Grand National trial in February? |
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JUNIOR
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mad max
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Can we have some reasons please rather than just names.
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Midnight Club , still travelling ok ish last year when hampered by Killyglen ,stayed on fine and jumped last few fences well , not like a tired horse ?? if that makes sense ?? if Ruby rides a Major Plus .. 27s at present at time of post ..
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Mully read my Deep purple thread if he got in on 11st would have a monster chance
Other than that Cappa Bleu will likely get 10st 10lbs top trainer at prepping them for Aintree jumped really well at Haydock was I think 2nd or 3rd Fav in Denman's Hennessey. Won a foxhunters like a class individual 10 years old perfect age great trial in the Welsh National staying on jumping economically on horrible ground carrying a decent weight there. Looks a v gd each way play. Junior could well win but Bl00dy hell off 153 minimum raised 16lbs I think for winning a mickey mouse festival race. Hardly makes sense for me at the prices. Deep purple off the same mark, has won a Peterboro chase, a Charlie Hall been mixing it against the best and last time proved off top weight at Sandown how easily he got the 3m 5f. A monster monster chance at the Prices. Few horse have the class speed to win a Peterboro at Huntingdon and have the stamina to see out nearly 3 3/4 miles at Sandown These are my major bets against the field and have played Fair Along at 200/1 plus for a few quid as he is a big price on his Henessey run. |
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after timer - according to pete in a weak field
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Mully would be intrested to know your thoughts on KILLYGLEN
came down when still going well last year jumps well in the main likes decent ground i relly like this ones chance also deep purple hoping for a nice weight for this one chicago grey guaranteed stayer could go well to would be slightly worried it would be too far off the pace though |
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DB-that's one of my early four. Alfa Beat, Killyglen, Cappa Bleu & Chicago Grey.
I keep trying to find a long range forecast. Surely we must be due a wet mid-April this year? |
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MAJESTIC CONCORDE has been overlooked by many people. this horse was flying last year when fell in feak incident. for a wise trainer and a horse that has been laid out for this it is great value. ON THE NOSE AT 100-1 PLUS!!!!
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There's a reason why Majestic Concorde has been overlooked - he isn't entered.
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That wasn't very strategic was it
Hard luck lad. |
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Beshabar, Oscar Time, Majestic Concorde out, and he was loving it last year strategicnapper was right. Looks tantalisingly like more of the same for the McCain family. Lets hope the handicappers kind, time he relented on past winners. If their supposed to dead-heat perhaps the obligatory 8lb is too much. Ballabriggs please.
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Paul Smith loves his Aintree Factor, I can't see him relenting somehow.
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So does his brother Phil.
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Can someone put up the new (?) entry rules.
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.http://www.britishhorseracing.com/grand ... al-review/
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Sorry Tel, doesn't look as if that's working
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.http://www.britishhorseracing.com/grand-national-review/
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Thanks Fabulous
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Cooldine
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^ If you can ignore a few of his recent runs he has the touch of class that most National winners have and he looks like getting in on mark in mid 140s. A number of RSA winners/placed horses have run well in the National and Carruthers who was well beaten that day won the Henessey off the same sort of mark
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i like deep purple as he has that touch of class also a fan of killyglen but after watching a replay of last years race not so sure that he wasnt beginning to weaken when he fell if it was to be soft to heavy le beau bai must be on the shortlist
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boy wonder, I've similar thoughts on Killyglen, though I googled 'Killyglen unlucky' and found his jockey quoted after last year's race 'very unlucky'
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ok thanks
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just watched it again killyglen made a mistake the fence before he fell granted he hadnt been asked a question but was it tiredness that caused the mistake and then the fall
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Chicago Grey
Killyglen Niche Market Roulez Cool State of Play Sunnyhillboy Synchronised The Midnight Club Uncle Junior West End Rocker I like all of these for different reasons. Chicago Grey, Midnight Club, Sunnyhillboy and Niche Market are my favourites - have to see what the weights come out like |
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WEST END ROCKER -
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Nice list judorick-several of those I have an inkling for.
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state of play nope, west end rocker nope, sychronised top weight so nope, Sunnyhillboy has chances, MIdnight club unlucky last year, but usually these dont win.
Niche market not for me, Chicago grey maybe but its Ayr run was awful, is a speed favouring track like Aintree up his street or do the undulations of cheltenham play to his strengths. |
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Chicago Grey has to be interesting as he is a classy, strong stayer. I'd be concerned by the way he races though. The National seems to favour prominent racers. I suspect this in because it gives the horses a clear look at the fences and keeps them, relatively, out of trouble. Plus they can get in to a good rhythm with their jumping. Chicago tends to be dropped in right at the back and make late progress in his races which may create several problems for him.
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state of play nope, west end rocker nope, sychronised top weight so nope, Sunnyhillboy has chances, MIdnight club unlucky last year, but usually these dont win.
Niche market not for me, Chicago grey maybe but its Ayr run was awful, is a speed favouring track like Aintree up his street or do the undulations of cheltenham play to his strengths. oh right, perhaps I should just let you pick my short list for me? I mean I only spent 2 days going through the Nick Mordin trends and making a spreadsheet. Perhaps you would like to see my full analysis? National Shortlists Notes: after reviewing the factors I have divided the runners into short list, short list, long short list and dismiss Those in the shortlist fit most of the trends and appear to fit a typical National winner profile – we will be paying close attention All the other remaining shortlist and long shortlist horses could end up becoming of interest Those on the dismiss list have little chance either of getting in or winning Remember 42 will be eliminated and the weights will be crucial Short List (10) Chicago Grey Killyglen Niche Market Roulez Cool State of Play Sunnyhillboy Synchronised The Midnight Club Uncle Junior West End Rocker Short List (13) Arbor Supreme Ballabriggs Becauseicouldntsee Cooldine Mon Mome Neptune Equester Northern Alliance Organisedconfusion Planet of Sound Quiscover Fontaine Rare Bob Scotsirish Some Target Long Short List (10) Alfa Beat Always Waining Calgary Bay Deep Purple King Fontaine Massini's Maguire Midnight Chase Shakalakaboomboom The Package Vic Venturi Will check again once the weights are out. I would be quite confident that the 2012 National winner is in the 33 listed above and fairly confident that he is in the 23 of the first two lists. So now it is a case of chunking down, finding out which are definite runners, following the form and so on. Many have been waiting for the weights to be published and they will be out having prep runs soon after |
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Suprised you haven't included Little Josh. Connections are desperate for this horse to run, but needs to be in top 4 over 3 miles first. Will do everything then can to ensure this happens I understand.
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Little Josh hits 9 out of 13 trends but has yet to even place at 3 miles let alone win and he looks a certain non stayer. I can't bet them all and there are many stronger contenders than he. If he ends up winning then that's tough luck on me
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Quantativeeasing and Little Josh would be apt names after this week. For me Planet of Sound and Rare Bob at the moment.
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Jud no need for agression mate there your selections personally mine hedge around big bets on cappa bleu and deep purple at this stage
Have given my reasons for both out of interest can I ask why Cappa Bleu is not in your list of 40 given? |
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It's the way people come on and diss other peoples work in a couple of sentences that makes me mad - there's a shed load of work gone into those lists and then someone you don't know comes along and goes "blah blah that's no good"
Cappa Bleu only had 5 chases and that is enough for me to dismiss him unless they get about 3 runs into him before Aintree. |