Grand National

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11 Jan 12 14:29
Date Joined: 20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 29,810 | Blogger: BJG's blog
Pause Switch to Standard View Cappa Bleu Grand National Winner 2012
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Report shaggykev January 11, 2012 6:41 PM GMT
Why didnt I back him ew in welsh national when he hit 25/1?

Was a gift
Report tyson1984 February 13, 2012 8:35 PM GMT
ballabriggs for the mccains
Report Terry Venables February 14, 2012 6:09 PM GMT
Evan Williams (State Of Play 10st 3lb, Cappa Bleu 10st 10lb, Deep Purple 11st 3lb). "Cappa Bleu will either go for the National Trial at Haydock or run at Ascot at the weekend. There are worse things to do than go down the Grand National route, but he's far from certain to run. Deep Purple stayed better than I thought he would at Sandown and it looks like he might end up going to the National by default."
Report Terry Venables February 14, 2012 6:10 PM GMT
Sat on a £6k green herePlain
Report BJG February 14, 2012 7:06 PM GMT
Plain Not far off that myself

Must go for it - just has to so im nt worried a while Whoops
Report Dark Destroyer February 15, 2012 7:52 AM GMT
Cappa Bleu was my only bet prior to the weights so while I agree that it remains the obvious target (and his owners enjoy a runner) those comments are unwelcome. Hopefully we will here something more positive after a decent performance on Saturday Cool

I have added a precautionary e/w 50/1 on Deep Purple and a larger 33/1 on Planet of Sound. That will do until much nearer the time.
Report Dark Destroyer February 15, 2012 7:53 AM GMT
Here Sad

Hear Happy

Much too early.
Report Roger The Butler February 15, 2012 10:14 AM GMT
Not enough chase starts. Need at least 9 under rules, he has only had 5.

I know he has also run in points, but they don't count for the stats so he has to be a no on experience.
Report Roger The Butler February 15, 2012 10:16 AM GMT
Last year's favourite The Midnight Club was another for whom the 'not enough chases' bell tolled, and he only finished 6th.
Report Angel Gabrial February 15, 2012 9:09 PM GMT
For the same reason i cant have Junior, only 7 chases.
Report strontium February 15, 2012 9:58 PM GMT
They are all likely to have a couple more runs before the national now the weights are out. I think most Natioanl winners since the year dot had a recent run.
Report jasey February 16, 2012 2:07 AM GMT
May not run
Report blackbarn February 18, 2012 2:34 PM GMT
Some trial that though!
Report Dark Destroyer February 18, 2012 3:20 PM GMT
Hills have pushed him out to 33/1. Surprising.
Report horse9 February 18, 2012 5:02 PM GMT
I saw that DD - I snapped up the 25s earlier in the week as I thought he'd run a decent race and would only shorten, very decent run and Hills push him out ? What do they know......
Report Dark Destroyer February 18, 2012 5:18 PM GMT
No idea.

The obvious alternative would be the Whitbread but the way Deep Purple won at Sandown in December it would be pretty strange if he wasn't the stable pick for that race. Still what do we know? I don't see him having the pace for the 3-miler at Cheltenham and the Scottish National would be a bit of a cop-out.
Report roobuck February 18, 2012 8:15 PM GMT
Agreed he ran a good race today. I also think the National would suit perfectly and was surprised that Billys 33s - acted accordingly.
Report horse9 February 18, 2012 9:14 PM GMT
He's also shortened up in here, was 29 yesterday now 26/27.
Might have a think about that 33s with Hills and press....
Report strontium February 18, 2012 11:06 PM GMT
I also thought Always Right was running a great trial and was pulled up the second he was beaten.
Report boy wonder 07 February 19, 2012 9:38 AM GMT
yes i agree strontium always right is my national fancy but couldnt believe how quickly he emptied yesterday i would like to know if there was a problem ie swallowed his tongue made a noise it tempers confidence to bet him at the moment but if there is a problem and they can sort it i still think he has a great chance on april 14th
Report strontium February 19, 2012 12:30 PM GMT
It's possible boy wonder, but my read was they didn't want to give him a hard race in very demanding conditions so he was pulled up as soon as it became clear he wasn't going to win after he made a jumping error. That said, two P's in a row isn't ideal form going in to the National and he hasn't found anything off the bridle in either race.
Report runandskip February 19, 2012 5:10 PM GMT
I thought it was a strange decision to run at Ascot instead of Haydock but with conditions turning the way they did at Haydock the connections definately chose the right route.
Really pleased with the run :)
Report horse9 February 22, 2012 7:05 PM GMT
So Hills push Cappa Bleu out to 33s then 3 days later have slashed himn to 16s, joint shortest in the industry.
What sort of strategy are they working to ?
Report abbott February 24, 2012 9:34 PM GMT
wish i read this thread at the start of the week weould have been all over him at 33/1 ive got some 25s for now. Think his Ascot run was extremely encouraging imo
Report edhall67 February 25, 2012 3:16 PM GMT
He'l be the stable selected after that feeble effort from Deep Purple at Kempton. Sitting on a little bit of 120 but worried about the experience stat for CB
Report Dark Destroyer February 25, 2012 8:08 PM GMT
Hills have now removed him from the market on their site and also on Oddschecker.

WTF are they playing at ?

(they have also lengthened my other fancy, Planet of Sound, to 33/1 despite what I saw as a perfectly good run behind Nacarat today. I just don't get it).
Report Fistfulofdollars March 4, 2012 11:10 AM GMT
I like each of cappa bleu's runs this year. He won well first time up and ran a cracker in the welsh national. Last time for me he was the likely winner turning round swinley bottom and he was given a very kind ride in the finish. He could potentially be very well in on the form he showed a couple off seasons back and with 10:10 remains value at 20/1. Much better than question mark horses such as Junior (jumping?) and prince de beauchene (staying?)
Report runandskip March 7, 2012 11:59 AM GMT
Evan was very positive just now on atr
Report Fistfulofdollars April 3, 2012 7:25 PM BST
Slightly worried by Evan's cautiousness in this report but it's good to soft at the moment and plenty of unsettled weather expected over the next 10 days - they're watering too so I can't see it being worse than on the easy side of good on the day - should be just right for him...
Report Otis April 6, 2012 11:04 AM BST
Evan's cautiousness is surely over Deep Purple, reading that, as have yet to book a jockey? Confident it will run.
Report BJG April 11, 2012 1:08 PM BST
Easy to back today and yestPlain
Report Fistfulofdollars April 11, 2012 1:12 PM BST
It may be easy to back but there have been many others in a similar vein...does not concern me at all given the upbeat bulletins this week from the trainer and jockey...both have emphasised the perfect preparation...the uncertainty of taking to the course is always there but I'm happier with him than taking the chance with synchronised who has question marks on weight..jumping and is almost half the price...
Report judorick April 11, 2012 1:41 PM BST
there have been market moves for mudlarks like Giles Cross and West End Rocker because people think 11 mm of rain is going to turn it to heavy and this has resulted in some drifters

going will be good to soft which is perfect
Report racingguru April 11, 2012 3:41 PM BST
Cappa drifting is a concern because of who trains it - pure and simple. No reason he should drift on rain or comments made to this point. Serious ew chance assuming all is ok. Think the going will be more soft than GS as temps will be cool. Winds will be drying so doubt it will get heavy.
Report Angel Gabrial April 11, 2012 10:16 PM BST
I wouldnt worry lads. The orice drift is only because he is not one of the `talking horses` this week. I think he is made for the race and g/s will be not a problem.

Perhaps the connections have hinted he wont line up on heavy, but it will not even be soft. This horse is going to run a massive race. He is a stand out bet. He has the scope, the pace,stamina but he is not high profile in the lead up to the race which i kinda like.Happy
Report racingguru April 11, 2012 11:34 PM BST
I wish I trusted the welshman as much as you seem to do. The guy is evil pure and simple. The number of races he manipulates, throws is not even funny. The national you'd have thought he'd be trying but if the horse had a set back we the punters would be the last to know with him.
Report Angel Gabrial April 12, 2012 12:13 AM BST
He is not a stats horse and the layers are happy to lay Cappa Bleu. His price has levelled out now.

He does not fit the 49 day stat or more importantly the 9 chase rule but i would think not many previous 10 year old runners who failed this stat had won the Christy`s Foxhunters and been placed in the Welsh National. So i think that stat could be fragile as Cappa Bleu could be unique for this stat cat.
Report judorick April 12, 2012 1:36 AM BST
Cappa Bleu came 4th on my adjusted Nick Mordin style spreadsheet and met 12 out of the 13 factors. He is the right age and will go on the going, seems to have plenty of stamina and is a good jumper so I think it is going a bit far to say "he isn't a trend horse"

in fact he is my second largest bet behind Chicago Grey who was top of the spreadsheet when I built it. Sunnyhillboy jumped to top place when he scored at Cheltenham as that completed the full 13 of 13 factors met.

I am a trends maan myself but even I accept that some winners of some races don't fit all the trends and I can easily reconcile the seeming lack of experience over fences of Cappa Bleu by balancing that against all the factors he meets
Report racingguru April 12, 2012 1:54 AM BST
I've been laying off my Chicago Grey ante post. He was my pick for good - good/firm ground. Hope it doesn't come back to bite me but I worry about his stamina and jumping from softened ground.
Report judorick April 12, 2012 1:58 AM BST
it is a  b u g g e r  to know what to do about Chicago. Let's face it he could trade massive in running if he gets behind on the first circuit and then stay on. I do think the going will be much quicker than many are expecting.
Report racingguru April 12, 2012 2:14 AM BST
I had 300 @ 28/1 Chicago and thought he was the type to travel very well through the race albeit from behind and appear to be the one cruising four out. I've always doubted his out and out stamina so was looking to lay off at 2/1ish but with the softer ground think he may well make mistakes as jumping will be harder. If he wins I'll prolly make a little but will feel pretty sick. Like Cappa, Killy and Synch if he jumps well but price long gone on that.
Report Angel Gabrial April 12, 2012 9:43 AM BST

In the eyes of the 9 chase stat men, he has no chance. I am not one of these. I can just see this one staying at a very decent price because of this reason. I strongly fancy the horse, he looks made for the job.
Report Ilnamar April 12, 2012 1:58 PM BST
I am a stats person but you have to look at what the stat means, not the stat itself.  The 9 chase stat will generally weed out inexperienced runners; however Cappa Bleu is clearly not that.  He narrowly fails 2 of my stats (only 3 runs in season, 56 days since run), but I dont feel especically comortable ruling him out.
Report Belmez April 14, 2012 8:25 PM BST
I felt he would have gone close but for a bad slip at the canal turn second circuit. Great ride and horse travelled well all the way and finished really strongly (9th at last fence). Hopefully will make amends next year.
Report Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods April 15, 2012 12:03 AM BST
Seemed to have plenty left in the tank at the end. If the race was 5m 4f he'd have sluiced in Cool
Report Angel Gabrial April 15, 2012 12:56 AM BST
He is still inexperienced and this will set him up perfectly for next year. His mark will be similar. If the race is still on next year Cappa Bleu will have it in the bagWink
Report sintonian April 15, 2012 1:11 AM BST
Would be quite awful seeing even williams win a national, but hey-ho.
Report apolo80 April 15, 2012 10:11 AM BST
backed it each way thought he lrft it plenty to do to be honest glad it got placed tho
Report runandskip April 15, 2012 1:31 PM BST
a great prep for next year
will probably have a campaign just like State Of Play has had previously in not many starts.
the team will learn a lot from this

the start (was lined up to be handy prior to the false start) but unfortunatly PM got caught napping when they finally got going
Staying the trip looks guaranteed
Report Can't Catch Me April 15, 2012 1:48 PM BST
Sint Laugh They were my initial thoughts as well....

Agree with everyone else. Fantastic prep race.
Report sintonian April 15, 2012 5:17 PM BST

provided he is given the correct prep, not like state of play, I would really have to bet this horse heavily to compensate for the trainer winning Scared
Report Fistfulofdollars April 15, 2012 8:55 PM BST
Prep race is all well and good but in my view he should have been a lot closer on the second circuit...yes he was baulked the one after foinavon but he finished full of running....sorry to say but I don't think maloney gave it a copybook ride - it was as if it was state of play being ridden for a place....was the fastest finisher and who knows if he had been handier how he would have been placed.... :o(
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