Grand National
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Why didnt I back him ew in welsh national when he hit 25/1?
Was a gift |
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ballabriggs for the mccains
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Evan Williams (State Of Play 10st 3lb, Cappa Bleu 10st 10lb, Deep Purple 11st 3lb). "Cappa Bleu will either go for the National Trial at Haydock or run at Ascot at the weekend. There are worse things to do than go down the Grand National route, but he's far from certain to run. Deep Purple stayed better than I thought he would at Sandown and it looks like he might end up going to the National by default."
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Sat on a £6k green here
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Not far off that myself Must go for it - just has to so im nt worried a while  |
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Cappa Bleu was my only bet prior to the weights so while I agree that it remains the obvious target (and his owners enjoy a runner) those comments are unwelcome. Hopefully we will here something more positive after a decent performance on Saturday
I have added a precautionary e/w 50/1 on Deep Purple and a larger 33/1 on Planet of Sound. That will do until much nearer the time. |
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Here
 Hear  Much too early. |
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Not enough chase starts. Need at least 9 under rules, he has only had 5.
I know he has also run in points, but they don't count for the stats so he has to be a no on experience. |
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Last year's favourite The Midnight Club was another for whom the 'not enough chases' bell tolled, and he only finished 6th.
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For the same reason i cant have Junior, only 7 chases.
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They are all likely to have a couple more runs before the national now the weights are out. I think most Natioanl winners since the year dot had a recent run.
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May not run
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Some trial that though!
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Hills have pushed him out to 33/1. Surprising.
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I saw that DD - I snapped up the 25s earlier in the week as I thought he'd run a decent race and would only shorten, very decent run and Hills push him out ? What do they know......
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No idea.
The obvious alternative would be the Whitbread but the way Deep Purple won at Sandown in December it would be pretty strange if he wasn't the stable pick for that race. Still what do we know? I don't see him having the pace for the 3-miler at Cheltenham and the Scottish National would be a bit of a cop-out. |
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Agreed he ran a good race today. I also think the National would suit perfectly and was surprised that Billys 33s - acted accordingly.
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He's also shortened up in here, was 29 yesterday now 26/27.
Might have a think about that 33s with Hills and press.... |
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I also thought Always Right was running a great trial and was pulled up the second he was beaten.
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yes i agree strontium always right is my national fancy but couldnt believe how quickly he emptied yesterday i would like to know if there was a problem ie swallowed his tongue made a noise it tempers confidence to bet him at the moment but if there is a problem and they can sort it i still think he has a great chance on april 14th
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It's possible boy wonder, but my read was they didn't want to give him a hard race in very demanding conditions so he was pulled up as soon as it became clear he wasn't going to win after he made a jumping error. That said, two P's in a row isn't ideal form going in to the National and he hasn't found anything off the bridle in either race.
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I thought it was a strange decision to run at Ascot instead of Haydock but with conditions turning the way they did at Haydock the connections definately chose the right route.
Really pleased with the run :) |
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So Hills push Cappa Bleu out to 33s then 3 days later have slashed himn to 16s, joint shortest in the industry.
What sort of strategy are they working to ? |
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wish i read this thread at the start of the week weould have been all over him at 33/1 ive got some 25s for now. Think his Ascot run was extremely encouraging imo
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He'l be the stable selected after that feeble effort from Deep Purple at Kempton. Sitting on a little bit of 120 but worried about the experience stat for CB
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Hills have now removed him from the market on their site and also on Oddschecker.
WTF are they playing at ? (they have also lengthened my other fancy, Planet of Sound, to 33/1 despite what I saw as a perfectly good run behind Nacarat today. I just don't get it). |
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I like each of cappa bleu's runs this year. He won well first time up and ran a cracker in the welsh national. Last time for me he was the likely winner turning round swinley bottom and he was given a very kind ride in the finish. He could potentially be very well in on the form he showed a couple off seasons back and with 10:10 remains value at 20/1. Much better than question mark horses such as Junior (jumping?) and prince de beauchene (staying?)
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Evan was very positive just now on atr
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Slightly worried by Evan's cautiousness in this report but it's good to soft at the moment and plenty of unsettled weather expected over the next 10 days - they're watering too so I can't see it being worse than on the easy side of good on the day - should be just right for him...
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/04/03/RACING_National.html&BID=465 |
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Evan's cautiousness is surely over Deep Purple, reading that, as have yet to book a jockey? Confident it will run.
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Easy to back today and yest
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It may be easy to back but there have been many others in a similar vein...does not concern me at all given the upbeat bulletins this week from the trainer and jockey...both have emphasised the perfect preparation...the uncertainty of taking to the course is always there but I'm happier with him than taking the chance with synchronised who has question marks on weight..jumping and is almost half the price...
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there have been market moves for mudlarks like Giles Cross and West End Rocker because people think 11 mm of rain is going to turn it to heavy and this has resulted in some drifters
going will be good to soft which is perfect |
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Cappa drifting is a concern because of who trains it - pure and simple. No reason he should drift on rain or comments made to this point. Serious ew chance assuming all is ok. Think the going will be more soft than GS as temps will be cool. Winds will be drying so doubt it will get heavy.
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I wouldnt worry lads. The orice drift is only because he is not one of the `talking horses` this week. I think he is made for the race and g/s will be not a problem.
Perhaps the connections have hinted he wont line up on heavy, but it will not even be soft. This horse is going to run a massive race. He is a stand out bet. He has the scope, the pace,stamina but he is not high profile in the lead up to the race which i kinda like. |
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I wish I trusted the welshman as much as you seem to do. The guy is evil pure and simple. The number of races he manipulates, throws is not even funny. The national you'd have thought he'd be trying but if the horse had a set back we the punters would be the last to know with him.
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He is not a stats horse and the layers are happy to lay Cappa Bleu. His price has levelled out now.
He does not fit the 49 day stat or more importantly the 9 chase rule but i would think not many previous 10 year old runners who failed this stat had won the Christy`s Foxhunters and been placed in the Welsh National. So i think that stat could be fragile as Cappa Bleu could be unique for this stat cat. |
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Cappa Bleu came 4th on my adjusted Nick Mordin style spreadsheet and met 12 out of the 13 factors. He is the right age and will go on the going, seems to have plenty of stamina and is a good jumper so I think it is going a bit far to say "he isn't a trend horse"
in fact he is my second largest bet behind Chicago Grey who was top of the spreadsheet when I built it. Sunnyhillboy jumped to top place when he scored at Cheltenham as that completed the full 13 of 13 factors met. I am a trends maan myself but even I accept that some winners of some races don't fit all the trends and I can easily reconcile the seeming lack of experience over fences of Cappa Bleu by balancing that against all the factors he meets |
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I've been laying off my Chicago Grey ante post. He was my pick for good - good/firm ground. Hope it doesn't come back to bite me but I worry about his stamina and jumping from softened ground.
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