Grand National
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10 year trends for the Galway Plate http://tinyurl.com/65zj9c4:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 1-3-18
7yo: 3-9-46
8yo: 3-4-54
9yo: 3-7-49
10yo: 0-4-22
11yo+: 0-2-20
9 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 9, only exception was a Paul Nicholls French-bred 6yo.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 42 runners. The only winner aged 10+ in the last 20 years was Life Of A Lord, who was winning the race for a second consecutive year.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 1-9-50
Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 9-20-160
9 of 10 winners carried less than 11 stone
Lower weights have a definite advantage when there is ease in the ground (no horse has managed to carry over 11-0+ to victory on ground softer than good in the past 15 years). However the last 3 times this race has been run on good to firm ground the winning weights have been 11-4, 10-12 and 11-11.
Top Weight: 700262740U4 (0-4-11)
Horses carrying a penalty (0-0-11) have failed to make the places once from 11 runners
Official Ratings
Horses rated 139 to 160: 1-5-24
Horses rated 122 to 138: 8-19-141
Horses rated 105 to 121: 1-5-45
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 122 to 138, though they have represented approximately 67% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners won their last chase start
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed chase outing (exception had fallen on last 3 runs)
7 of 10 winners ran in a class 1 chase that calendar year (all 3 exceptions had not run over fences that year)
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 17 chases (6 of 10 had run in fewer than 10 chases)
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap chases
8 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (exceptions had won 2 or 3)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (1 exception was Ansar when winning his second Plate)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
6 of 10 winners had won in listed or graded company
3 of 10 winners had won at Galway (6 of 7 others were having first course start)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Finger Onthe Pulse): 312 (1-2-3)
Down Royal Galway Plate Trial winner (Harold's Cross): 54P1 (1-1-4)
McSweeney Arms Hotel H´cap Chase winner (Bideford Legend): 03 (0-1-2)
Previous season's Latin Quarter Chase winner (Invisible Man): 5U (0-0-2)
Ryan's Cleaining Beg’s Chase winner (Campbonnais): P0 (0-0-2)
Irish Open Chase winner (Bahrain Storm): 80U (0-0-3)
Themalton.com Chase winner (Psycho): P0PBP (0-0-5)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Knight Frank Novice Chase, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners ran in Killiney Novice Chase, finishing 7P
2 of 10 winners ran in the grade 3 Grimes Hurdle last time out, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Daily Mirror Handicap Chase, finishing 8U
Trainers
Christy Roche (2-3-9) has a superb record in this race having gained 2 wins and 3 places from 9 runners. His other 4 runners finished 6/22, 6/22, 8/20 & 6/20.
Dermot Weld (2-5-12) has a good record in the race thanks to Ansar who accounted for both Weld’s wins and 3 of his other 5 placed runners. He saddled Majestic Concorde to finish 3rd last year, and he looks likely to run again this year.
Liam Burke (1-0-1), Colin McBratney (1-0-1), Michael Hourigan (1-0-2), Tom Taaffe (1-0-2) and Paul Nicholls (1-0-5) have each trained the winner once in the past 10 years.
Niall Madden (0-2-5) has saddled two placed finishers from 5 runners (4 of his 5 runners made the first 5). Eoin Doyle (0-1-1) saw his only previous representative finish placed last year.
Some of the bigger NH yards in Ireland have not fared so well. Noel Meade (0-2-18), Tony Martin (0-1-7), Paul Nolan (0-1-7) and Willie Mullins (0-1-10) have gained 0 wins and just 5 places from their combined 42 runners since 2001.
British-based trainers (1-0-14) have seen only 1 of their 14 runners make the frame in the past 10 year. Oslot won the race in 2008 for Paul Nicholls, only the second British based winner since 1990.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 10/1 and 25/1
Not a strong trends race on prices with winners’ sp’s varying quite a lot year on year, last 2 winners went off 16/1 & 22/1.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won the race twice in the past 10 years, showing a level stakes loss of 3.75.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 7 to 9
• Carrying less than 11-0 (unless ground comes up g/f)
• Officially rated 122 to 138
• Won their start over fences (finished no worse than 5th)
• Previously run in no more than 17 chases
• Run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
• Ideally previously won a listed or graded chase
• Second or third season chaser
• Won over 2M 4F+
• Trained by Christy Roche, Dermot Weld or Niall Madden
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 1-3-18
7yo: 3-9-46
8yo: 3-4-54
9yo: 3-7-49
10yo: 0-4-22
11yo+: 0-2-20
9 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 9, only exception was a Paul Nicholls French-bred 6yo.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 42 runners. The only winner aged 10+ in the last 20 years was Life Of A Lord, who was winning the race for a second consecutive year.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 1-9-50
Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 9-20-160
9 of 10 winners carried less than 11 stone
Lower weights have a definite advantage when there is ease in the ground (no horse has managed to carry over 11-0+ to victory on ground softer than good in the past 15 years). However the last 3 times this race has been run on good to firm ground the winning weights have been 11-4, 10-12 and 11-11.
Top Weight: 700262740U4 (0-4-11)
Horses carrying a penalty (0-0-11) have failed to make the places once from 11 runners
Official Ratings
Horses rated 139 to 160: 1-5-24
Horses rated 122 to 138: 8-19-141
Horses rated 105 to 121: 1-5-45
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 122 to 138, though they have represented approximately 67% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners won their last chase start
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed chase outing (exception had fallen on last 3 runs)
7 of 10 winners ran in a class 1 chase that calendar year (all 3 exceptions had not run over fences that year)
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 17 chases (6 of 10 had run in fewer than 10 chases)
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap chases
8 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (exceptions had won 2 or 3)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (1 exception was Ansar when winning his second Plate)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
6 of 10 winners had won in listed or graded company
3 of 10 winners had won at Galway (6 of 7 others were having first course start)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Finger Onthe Pulse): 312 (1-2-3)
Down Royal Galway Plate Trial winner (Harold's Cross): 54P1 (1-1-4)
McSweeney Arms Hotel H´cap Chase winner (Bideford Legend): 03 (0-1-2)
Previous season's Latin Quarter Chase winner (Invisible Man): 5U (0-0-2)
Ryan's Cleaining Beg’s Chase winner (Campbonnais): P0 (0-0-2)
Irish Open Chase winner (Bahrain Storm): 80U (0-0-3)
Themalton.com Chase winner (Psycho): P0PBP (0-0-5)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Knight Frank Novice Chase, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners ran in Killiney Novice Chase, finishing 7P
2 of 10 winners ran in the grade 3 Grimes Hurdle last time out, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Daily Mirror Handicap Chase, finishing 8U
Trainers
Christy Roche (2-3-9) has a superb record in this race having gained 2 wins and 3 places from 9 runners. His other 4 runners finished 6/22, 6/22, 8/20 & 6/20.
Dermot Weld (2-5-12) has a good record in the race thanks to Ansar who accounted for both Weld’s wins and 3 of his other 5 placed runners. He saddled Majestic Concorde to finish 3rd last year, and he looks likely to run again this year.
Liam Burke (1-0-1), Colin McBratney (1-0-1), Michael Hourigan (1-0-2), Tom Taaffe (1-0-2) and Paul Nicholls (1-0-5) have each trained the winner once in the past 10 years.
Niall Madden (0-2-5) has saddled two placed finishers from 5 runners (4 of his 5 runners made the first 5). Eoin Doyle (0-1-1) saw his only previous representative finish placed last year.
Some of the bigger NH yards in Ireland have not fared so well. Noel Meade (0-2-18), Tony Martin (0-1-7), Paul Nolan (0-1-7) and Willie Mullins (0-1-10) have gained 0 wins and just 5 places from their combined 42 runners since 2001.
British-based trainers (1-0-14) have seen only 1 of their 14 runners make the frame in the past 10 year. Oslot won the race in 2008 for Paul Nicholls, only the second British based winner since 1990.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 10/1 and 25/1
Not a strong trends race on prices with winners’ sp’s varying quite a lot year on year, last 2 winners went off 16/1 & 22/1.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won the race twice in the past 10 years, showing a level stakes loss of 3.75.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 7 to 9
• Carrying less than 11-0 (unless ground comes up g/f)
• Officially rated 122 to 138
• Won their start over fences (finished no worse than 5th)
• Previously run in no more than 17 chases
• Run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
• Ideally previously won a listed or graded chase
• Second or third season chaser
• Won over 2M 4F+
• Trained by Christy Roche, Dermot Weld or Niall Madden
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Replies: 6
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wise old owl ticks a lot of boxes, hopefully a bit of improvement still to come.
2 runs over course suggests this would have been target was cruising in a hcap here in oct (should have won) off 8 pounds less have taken the 16s, huge odds I think will be a lot shorter on the day. also backed lucky wish at 20s, fell here at the last previous year just 2 pounds higher now. would not have been a huge distance behind majectic concorde whose gone a lot higher in the weights and as low as 12 to 1 |
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I've backed Majestic Concorde at 12s. I think that is a massive price and will be considerably shorter come the day. Ran third last year and is only up a couple of pounds from 2010.
I backed Wise Old Owl that day at Galway when it was caught late on. I got the impression it has to be produced quite late and not sure if it got upthe hill when push came to shove. Obviously, I could be talking utter nonsense here. |
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I've backed Majestic Concorde at 12s. I think that is a massive price and will be considerably shorter come the day. Ran third last year and is only up a couple of pounds from 2010.
I backed Wise Old Owl that day at Galway when it was caught late on. I got the impression it has to be produced quite late and not sure if it got upthe hill when push came to shove. Obviously, I could be talking utter nonsense here. |
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Captain Cee Bee..Class will tell!!!! class will tell!!! Sent over hurdles tomorrow to get him ready to rumble for the big one..
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I'm on Wise Old Owl, Kiely's horses flying and fits alot of the trends
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Great work racecaller. The winner ticked all the right boxes.
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