Grand National
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
09 Apr 11
13:31
Joined:
Date Joined:
22 Oct 02
Telling everybody on Thu and Fri to back Don't Push It as it would start single figures.
Shameful guessing by the talentless BBC betting "expert".
Shameful guessing by the talentless BBC betting "expert".
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 22
|
By:
what do you think it will start ?
|
|
By:
14/1-16/1 my guess.
|
|
By:
Someone should tell Wiltshire it's not that cold...
|
|
By:
Oh dear!! Started in single figures. Apology maybe?
|
|
By:
I hold my hands up he called it right. Actually I thought he did ok on Saturday much better than I expected. He realised how shameful the bookmakers ISP for the National would be I didn't, that's why is is the Beeb betting expert. BetFair SP was 17/1 which tells a story.
Prices below all include stake: That's Rhythm 190.69 51 260% Can't Buy Time 122.19 34 249% Quolibet 333.76 101 216% Santa's Son 288.74 101 173% Piraya.... 274.89 101 160% OrNoirDe Somoza 130 51 145% Hello Bud 50.88 21 137% Ornais.... 241.92 101 129% Royal Rosa 220.64 101 109% Comply Or Die 54.85 26 105% ChiefDanGeorge 85.54 41 101% Killyglen 138.99 67 99% Tidal Bay 59.31 29 98% Skippers Brig 69.83 34 98% Dooneys Gate 104.88 51 97% Vic Venturi 102.88 51 94% Surface To Air 201.91 101 91% Grand Slam Hero 133.99 67 91% Arbor Supreme 40.89 21 89% Golden Kite 132.44 67 89% In Compliance 129.21 67 85% Don't Push It 18 10 79% MajesticConc 38.54 21 78% King Fontaine 147.74 81 74% Backstage 29.2 17 67% The Tother One 88.38 51 66% Calgary Bay 58.53 34 66% West End Rocker 57.98 34 64% Niche Market 26.91 17 54% Becauseicoudsee 26.96 17 54% Bluesea Cracker 41.19 26 53% State of Play 45.17 29 50% CharacterBuild 40.5 26 50% BigFellaThanks 19.8 13 49% Quinz.... 20.98 15 36% What A Friend 17.79 13 33% Ballabriggs 19.9 15 28% SilverByNature 12.66 10 23% TheMidnightClub 10.17 8.5 16% Oscar Time 16 15 2% |
|
By:
BetFair SP was 17/1 which tells a story.
Yes. The story is that BF is a win only market and didn't have to worry about each way liabilities. The comparison is nonsense. The pressure to have 5 and in some cases 6 places inevitably creates an doverbroke place book and in turn destroys the win market. |
|
By:
Well of course if you are backing to win it is not nonsense at all. In any case I don't really understand the argument the bookmakers win on the place part of the e/w part of the bet for 35 horses.
|
|
By:
It's you own fault taking a tip for the grand National from anybody is just sheer stupidity. Yhe guy dos'nt have a magic ball !!
Its the hardest race on the calender !! Behave yourself. |
|
By:
Storm Alert the place book with 6 places will definitely be overbroke and with 5 will be overbroke at morning prices and about break even at SP.
Grab a copy of yesterdays morning prices and the SP and work out the sums and you will see what I mean. |
|
By:
I agree I was being greedy and trying a back to lay on the basis of what somebody else was predicting, definitately will not make a mistake like that again. Ironically Wiltshire was right but didn't help me because of how the Betfair market went. I sure was in a state of panic with 2K on at 12.5 and nowhere to go when the price extended to 17.0 in a matter of 45mins and even hit 19.5 at one stage. I had to tough it out and go for broke and asked for 1K @12, .5K @10 & .5K @8 in running and as a result did not enjoy any of that National.
 |
|
By:
I will take a look Banks as it always good to learn. I assume the same argument re Befair vs ISP applies to lots of races once there are sufficent runners for e/w betting to be a factor.
|
|
By:
hang you head in embarrassment storm alert.
shameful guessing |
|
By:
If you went on the racecourse and laid Betfair prices you would end up skint very very quickly.You need a reality check about percentages some of you. Not all of you by the way.
|
|
By:
I assume the same argument re Befair vs ISP applies to lots of races once there are sufficent runners for e/w betting to be a factor.
It does. The worst examples will be 8 runner maidens/novice hurdles with an odds on favourite however the same principle will also be true for virtually every 16 runner handicap. To get an idea of the numbers take the next 16 runner handicap on here and work out the theoretical place book percentage based on the 100% win book. It will definitely be overbroke. It tends to be these type of races that people moan about most as the 8 runner races at 1/10,6/1,20/1 bar are obvious however ther same principle applies to planty of other races. |
|
By:
LOL AT YOU STORM - he called two days before - and you start a thread three hours before the race - hes mugged you off
|
|
By:
Lets be honest Gents, Gary Wiltshire is a joke. No mention of which bookies to go to for place value or any mention of the exchanges.
Lets not forget he said all the 100-1 shots had no chance when Mon Mome went in at 100-1. Him and Parrot think its "open mike" night on BBC. Thank God, the Beeb have given up on racing and we don't have to put up with these 2 clowns not mention the poor insight into the betting. Bring back Angus Loughrans pickometer or whatever it was. |
|
By:
Banks - The Betfair SP for a place on Don't Push It was 4.55. A good bit better than the 1/4 of the odds you'd get on 8/1 shot. Plus you don't have to commmit you're win stake.
|
|
By:
Gary Wiltshire really decent bloke, The betting ring badly needs similar characters. Probably does'nt bother the majority on here.
|
|
By:
get whatever you wanted when he had one in the book,lucky to get £100 @7/4 when he had it to homself,
|
|
By:
get whatever you wanted when he had one in the book,lucky to get £100 @7/4 when he had it to homself,
|
|
By:
Top bloke is Gal.
Same miserable scrots slag everyone off. |
|
By:
Gary knew, sp 9
|