Day 1 Bets

Sports Line, 1st time tongue tie, will not make the running but will be ridden with the pace and take it up. He didn't even try to race at Chelts. Horse is talented, 6l 3rd to Captain Cee Bee in G1 last year. Defo looks a plot job for this, has been most backed horse since market opened.

Knockara Beau w/o Big 2 @ 10/1 with PaddyP looks an astonishingly good bet. That's paying 2/1 to come 5th. Very consistent in his 3 runs over hurdles and gallant 4th under top weight in Pertemps.

Russian War, Elliot clearly knows how to place his horses and after a successful raid at Cheltenham in October he was well beaten by Grand Crus in Nov, horse has been put away to preserve his mark and makes trip over for this.

Launchpad is very progressive and won well on his last start, clearly though well enough of to make the trip over to aintree and is
a big price to finish in the top 4 or 5.

Good Luck all.

Added Sire Collonges in 5.25 for 1/2pt, was beaten lto by Imperial Cup 2nd and 3rd. I'm a big fan of Via Galilie too.

2.00 Big Buck's

2.30 Zarkander

3.05 Denman

3.40 Baby Run

4.15 Oiseau De Nuit

4.50 Wishfull Thinking

5.25 Bothy (e/w)

Yep Following you in with Knockara Looks a bet to nothing cant see it out the frame 4.15 Beggars Cap
In the process of running a huge race at the festival until getting rid of his jockey 5 out.Has got bundles of form around here and a live chance at a massive price even though a stone out the handicap

5.25 Cant make up mind for the e/w patent Notus de le tour or Bothy. Bothy has all the form in the book,win or lose or wether I back it or not 10's is massive.Just have the feeling that Notus has been very highly tried since his maiden win and connections feel that he's a lot better than what his showh so far although running creditably in top drawer heats

Let you know tomorrow what Iv done.Not that anyone's interested!

Just a fun bet today
EW Trixie

Carlito Brigante
Palawi
Oiseau de Nuit

Had my fingers burnt enough times!!

Decided at back Zarkander for Champion Hurdle @ 12/1

Carlito Brigante PLACE only

Zarkandar LAY
Local Hero ew 22/1

Denman (Nap)

Baby Run

No Bet

LAY Medermit

Bothy 11/1 ew 4 places

What price will you lay me Rondetto big balls? Beating Captain Chris over 2m4 and staying on in the Arle an oversight on your behalf?

Big Bucks
Baby Run
Rio Gael[ew] 525

3.05
1.5pt Punchestowns 6/1

3.40
1pt Herron Wells 14/1
0.5pt Mister Apples 16/1

4.15
1pt ew Beggars Cap 50/1
0.5pt Sports Line 16/1 bog

5.25
1.5pt Problema Tic 14/1 bog

0.5pt acca
Big Bucks
Zarkander
Punchestowns
Royal Charm

0.25pt ew double's
Beggars Cap
Problema Tic & Rio Gael

Big Bucks ,Denman , Medermit treble.. Sportsline 4.15 and Kilty Storm 3.40  ew Double  and 5.15 Orsippious ew to send me home happy    [;)] ...

Dont think i have ever read a post from Rondetto that i didnt agree with until this

By: This user is offline. Rondetto
Date Joined: 20 Jul 10 Add contact | Send message
When: 07 Apr 11 08:55 Joined: Date Joined: 20 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 397 | Blogger: Rondetto's blog
Carlito Brigante PLACE only

Zarkandar LAY
Local Hero ew 22/1

Denman (Nap)

Baby Run

No Bet

LAY Medermit

Bothy 11/1 ew 4 places

very very brave call putting up possibly next years CH winner Zarkandar and the Rock Solid Medermit as lays today,i have them down as the 2 bankers of the festival and the 9/4 about Medermit is a joke,the damm thing should be even money! HUGE DOUBLE ON THE 2 IS A CRACKING BET

Baby Run would win if completing,but over the national fences with that stupid little kid on top,FORGET IT! and Denman will blow out also

My word Russian War dug me out there.

After Grandouet being brought down and Sports Line falling I thought this was going to be a bad day.

Punchestowns is a useless c**t of a horse.

I had FOUR winners.

BIG BUCKS 4-6
ZARKANDER 4-5
NACARAT 4-1
WISHFULL THINKING 9-4

Have done them in 10p win fivefolds with SEAN O'HAIR (150-1) and CALGARY BAY (33-1). I'll be kicking myself if they all win, because I didn't do the sixfold.

To be honest TFM I don't rate any the horses that ran in the Triumph. At least not as potential Champion Hurdle horses next year.

Don't forget he's only 4, albeit a brute for his age and you need to be very special to win the race at 5 years old.

Plus that is in a normal year not in an era like this where you have Binocular Hurricane Fly Menorah and possibly Peddler's Cross still around.

Only horse I can see bridging the gap is Nicky Henderson's Spirit Son who lost his way 3 out in the Supreme through weakness before fighting his way back into it. He'll be 6yo next season and much stronger and could yet another Champion Hurdle contender from Sevenbarrows.

As far as today goes Grandouet may or may not have beat Zarkander and he's not considered to be anywhere near as good as Spirit Son.

Much depends on how they train on but right now Zarkander can't possibly be taken seriously to beat his seniors by this time next year IMO>

Medermit is one of the worst travelers in Grade 1 races around. He comes off the bridle early, does tend to find a lot but almost always ends up chasing something which is a huge no no at Cheltenham and Aintree in Grade 1 races.

Bit of after timing but I'm not saying anything I didn't say in other threads.
 
Got a huge shock with Denman I really thought Ruby would have taken on Nacarat from the word go but the way he ran you have to wonder what on earth PN was thinking about. Had he even looked like winning you could understand it but he's run 2 stone below his normal and that wasn't just the course that's the run of a horse who  wasn't in condition to do himself justice.

Young Willie TD is  natural he may only be 16 but he's been doing it since he could walk and is already better than Sam in most peoples eyes.
He gave the horse a brilliant ride at Chelters despite costing me a packet but made up for it big style today.

JOCI Club Joined: 13 Mar 04
Replies: 8108 06 Apr 11 23:32
 
2.00 Big Buck's 1st

2.30 Zarkander 1st

3.05 Denman unplaced

3.40 Baby Run 1st

4.15 Oiseau De Nuit 2nd

4.50 Wishfull Thinking 1st

5.25 Bothy (e/w) unplaced

4 winners day one.

Good Job JOCI,

But 4/6, 4/6, 3/1, 2/1 were the sp's of those

22/1 e/w Russian War returns more than all those.

See what I mean, one big priced horse can do the job of 4/5 favs.

Profit is profit is the way I look at it.

I feel that Zarkandar may surprise you next year rondetto,for me he is easily the best triumph winner over the past 15 years and if trained in the right manor which he will at PN stable,then i believe that he has the raw ability,class and scope to be right in the shake up of the CH and possibly even as early as next year,i am certainly not saying that he is going to be able to put it upto the likes of Hurricane and Bino,but it would not surprise me one bit if he is upto that task.
He ran a little flat today but his class still saw him home quite easily in the end as he was just idling in front,i very much doubt Grandouet would have been able to get by him if not coming to trouble,he was already just begining to be pushed along 30 strides from the second last and is a horse who finds little off the bridle to quicken.
Agree with you about Spirit Son and if let take his chance in 2m4f race on saturday which will be perfect for him,then i would expect him to have the class to see off Sam Winner,Rock on Ruby and Cue Card and with such a strong field against him he may even be a decent priced favorite.

Unfortunately CV when you couple all the horses you backed in that race your odds were more like 3/1

and also the 10/1 you had about Knockara Beau paid 1/2 to your money about the 7th favourite finishing 5th .............value?

I think Oiseau de Nuit could possibly have won seeing as he made a horrendous mistake early on, the rider lost his irons, and he lost many lengths in the process, so I count myself as unlucky there too, to only get a place!

not a great day for me - a new low when 3 of my 5 placepot picks in the Foxhunters tipped up at the same fence.[:o]

That was why I put five in!

Notwithstanding the last hurdle incident that took out 2 of the four principles, the front two in the Matalan Novices Hurdle finished 29 lengths clear of the rest - personally don't think Grandouet was winning anyway.

Likely Zarkander is very good and Kumbeshwar too - his seconditis cannot mask the rock solid form of all his three most recent runs.

Yummy what are you on about?

5.25 had

0.75pt Megastar lost
0.5pt Russian War 11pts
0.5pt Sire Collonges lost

1.75pts bet 11pts won

Backing Big Bucks, Zarkander, Denman etc.. would require big stakes at short odds and one loss hits your winnings hard.

Also Knockara Beau did only come 5th, but the point was he could have come 3rd and paid out 10/1 you still get 2/1 on the place.

All this on a pretty terrible day's punting. Gotta be happy. Picked the wrong one to oppose Denman.






small = few euro

Yummy what are you on about?

5.25 had

0.75pt Megastar lost
0.5pt Russian War 11pts
0.5pt Sire Collonges lost

1.75pts bet 11pts won

Backing Big Bucks, Zarkander, Denman etc.. would require big stakes at short odds and one loss hits your winnings hard.

Also Knockara Beau did only come 5th, but the point was he could have come 3rd and paid out 10/1 you still get 2/1 on the place.

All this on a pretty terrible day's punting. Gotta be happy. Picked the wrong one to oppose Denman.






small = few euro

Aye good days punting JOCI, I'm just saying you ain't gonna get rich backing horses at those odds is all.

Little increments will do me.

Explain to me how you can bet bet so many horses with a consistent stake plan and then bet 2 horses in the last "small"

counting those 3 horses your odds were just over 5/1 ....add in the small and your 5 horses coupled represent 6/4

You're missing the point, more than one horse in a race means more than one chance. Also those horses can win and place. It's very different to hitting a fav for a large stake

Say you can back a fav around say 6/4 and only have 2 out comes win / lose.

Going with 2/3 at bigger prices e/w means stages of win from all lose, 1 place, to 1 wins others place.

Anyway, I'm not up for getting into a discussion here. I posted my bets pre race, so will of course be on defensive from someone who didn't.

TFM That's a bit of a sweeping statement to be making about Zarkandar you obviously like him an awful lot.

There has been some pretty ordinary Triumph Hurdle winners or perhaps I should say horses who have won the race and not trained on.

Katchit was an outstanding winner taking 6 of his seven races that season including Aintree. The way he quickened after the third last and flew down the hill it would have taken one very special  4 year old to live with him that year on any other, something he repeated the following year in the Champion Hurdle.

At Aintree he had Punjabi 4 lengths behind and he himself as we know went on to win the Champion Hurdle beating another not so bad Triumph Hurdle winner in Celestial Halo.

Unlike the great Persian War, Katchit paid the price for such a sparkling early career as did Celestial Halo to a degree.

Binocular never got the chance to run in the Triumph due to politics but found the Supreme too much of an ask as a 4yo and the Champion Hurdle just beyond him as a 5yo.

I just can't see in Zarkandar what I saw in Binocular or Katchit and think the form will turn out to be very ordinary.

Wish you luck though and will await him surprising me[;)]