Grand National
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I think Thursday is the day that he gets beat. If there's a bit of juice in the ground i can see either Grand Crus or Khyber Kim making it uncomfortable for him. I've back KK at 20s so i hope he just runs. I wouldn't lay BB, at the same time i won't be backing him.
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i remember last year he wasn't very convincing at this meeting and this is a much stronger line up than last year.
To be honest I thought he'd be shorter than 8/13 and Grands Crus would be longer than 3/1. Probably won't have a bet in it, but if I do might throw Carlito Brigante in an e/w Lucky; but really hope Big Bucks laughs at them Khyber Kim is interesting for the first time at 3m, but after his 2 runs this year he'll have to improve massively. |
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I was thinking he wasn't that convincing WC, until i watched the reply. He won fairly well, and got done what he had to. I just have that feeling that a better horse that what he faced last year could take him a little bit out of that comfort zone. It's not unrealistic to think that Grand Crus could take to this track, whilst BB might run a few pound below his best. That scenario alone would see a close finish.
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Ruby dropped his whip before the last at Cheltenham and he won fairly convincingly. This considered, they have plenty to find to beat a horse who is yet to lose over hurdles and put in his personal best at Cheltenham on ground slightly out of his comfort zone. Either smash 8/13 or if you don't like the price don't bet at all - just enjoy one of the wonders of NH racing who will take some replicating!
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The thing about opposing a horse like Big Buck's is sooner or later the odds say you are going to be right.
Mind you, you could end up in the poor house before it happens. Aintree is a funny old course and can produce some real shock result. I've always thought it is more likely to happen in 2 mile hurdle races where horses find it way too sharp against 3 miles where jockeys have a lot more time to gather their mounts and thoughts. Aintree wouldn't be the best track to be running Big Buck's as he has been known to hit a flat spot in the past and you couldn't pick a worse course than Aintree to be doing that. So him being less impressive than he was at Cheltenham last year came as no surprise to me but the fact is so good he still won. He was so superior to Grand Crus it will take more than an unsuitable course to bring those two together and he's no danger if Big Buck's is 100% The only possible danger is surely Carlito Brigante. Davy Russell gave him what I thought was the ride of the meeting at the Festival. Despite looking like being swamped at the 3rd last he never turned a hair kept him on an even keel and produced him at exactly the right time. As a result of such a cool ride Carlito Brigante had a very easy time of it so he will probably come here fresher than most and raring to go. He steps up to 3 miles for the first time which makes him a bit of an unknown quantity so if any horse is going to step up, he or perhaps Khyber Kim also stepping up in trip are much more likely to do so than the exposed Grand Crus. Why would anyone in their right mind want to be oppose Big Buck's? There's plenty of 8/13 shots one could lay without going against the best horse in training. Laying him or opposing him isn't the smartest idea in the world that's for sure. I'd be more tempted to back Calito Brigante in the place market where he'll be better than even money and let Big Buck's run un-backed and unopposed. |
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If anything there's been no sign of the big bucks 'flat spot' this season or in last years world hurdle.
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Very true but things happen much quicker round Aintree and that's the reason he didn't look impressive last year. It's no big worry just a fact of life that he's better suited to an even gallop. Newbury for me would be his perfect track.
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Yeah, so as i was saying...[:p]
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Believe it or not I only had 10p on him.
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lol @ 10p ...that's what you call an addiction.
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You gotta love racing I followed that 1 in the
 that finished 3rd for a full season and he boucnes back to his best and does me out of a place. Gawd!! he's awesome that Big Buck's Graeme I knew you were joking all the time  |