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jesusisback
05 Apr 11 13:54
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Date Joined: 31 Jan 10
| Topic/replies: 1,166 | Blogger: jesusisback's blog
Firstly their is no heart in this, its purely head, I have a pure dislike for 1 of the owners( who in fact has to be 1 of the luckiest people on the planet).

The horse.

Trained by a master trainer, who has a knack for getting it right with the best horse.
Jockey has a very decent SR for chases.

The Horse.

well in on official ratings. His last run was exceptional.
ground and distance no problem.
8yo not uncommon. to quality animals.
Never fallen, decent size horse.
blinkers not a bad thing around here, and improved him last time.

I can see him hacking if he stays away from trouble.

14/1 now may look very big on Saturday afternoon.

GL
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Report Derbyshire Racing April 5, 2011 2:45 PM BST
I just cannot see him taking to the fences myself - looks too small but I have been known to be wrong before - good luck, hope he runs well
Report Mully April 5, 2011 3:33 PM BST
No mention of Trainers record in the race to date?
Report jesusisback April 5, 2011 6:10 PM BST
The trainer is 2nd to none in any race, and another reason imo y he will shorten
Report FOYLESWAR April 5, 2011 6:54 PM BST
he does look good but wonder if just over  3 weeks is enough to get over the tough race he had in gold cup
Report revedesivola April 5, 2011 7:02 PM BST
my will went well a few yrs ago after a similar prep...
Report the happy lagger April 5, 2011 7:52 PM BST
very good call, but didnt he spit the dummy in the hennesy one year? when tanking up to the last two, what will happen if he gets left out front on his own? he will still carry my shilling e/w
Report very promising April 5, 2011 9:56 PM BST
Dont Push It looks very reasonable at 11-2 to go off fav. AP factor on last year's winner on the day will prove mighty popular on the day with household punters who in the end move the national market
Report thefarmer April 5, 2011 10:04 PM BST
Had a very hard race three weeks ago in Gold Cup. It will take all the horses in the GC a while to get over that run. For that reason you have to oppose both Denman and What A friend in their chosen engagements this week. The National appears to be an afterthought with regards to What A friend and i have no doubt that there are other better handicapped horses lurking around below him that have been prepared specifically for this race.
Report CVByrne April 5, 2011 10:16 PM BST
Hope he goes off fav, had 2.5pt on him at 7/2 to be fav.
Report revedesivola April 5, 2011 10:48 PM BST
the farmer, which horses do you think are better than a stone well in
Report Far From Trouble April 5, 2011 11:55 PM BST
what does the OP have against Ged Mason? Confused
Report BarryM April 6, 2011 9:56 AM BST
He can't go off fav when Ruby has got off him. Most of your logic stacks though. There is a very strong form case to be made for What A Friend,and a pretty strong one for Arbour Supreme & Niche Market. But Ruby has rejected al of them to ride The Midnight Club - so what does he know exactly?
Report BarryM April 6, 2011 9:58 AM BST
I disagree with "trip no problem" mind you. I think he'll stay myself, and there was certainly plenty of encouragement in his Gold Cup run, but you can never be sure a horse is going to stay 4.5m when the furthest it's run over is 3.25. WAF has had breathing problems too.
Report Rondetto April 6, 2011 10:00 AM BST
Very often there's a huge gamble in the race and it ends up fav despite the fact the gamble is totally fictitious. You should look for something under 20/1 that can't win and you'll not be far away.

Come to think of it What A Friend fits the bill big time.
Report penzance April 6, 2011 10:23 AM BST
i think Don't Push It could go off fav again.
won race year before,McCoy factor and with his connections
could be a snowball effect.
Report Angel Gabrial April 6, 2011 10:32 AM BST
I think What A Friend will be cantering all over them coming to the last and hopefully he can battle it out. People say he wilted in the Hennessy when Denman dug deep. That was Denman in his prime and What A Friend was an inexperienced 6 year old. On good ground and an aptitude for the Aintree fences, i think he will be able to save himself for the last mile. He is different class to every horse in the race and at the weights he is absolutely thrown in.
Report Rondetto April 6, 2011 10:44 AM BST
You gotta have faith with name like thatLaugh it would appear you have more faith in What A Friend than Ruby Walsh does.

Great record in the race has our Ruby knows a dodgy head carriage when he sees one.

I hope he's cruising with 3 to jump with a few others a round him. As Bob Dylan would say Lay lady Lay
Report Angel Gabrial April 6, 2011 11:04 AM BST
Rondetto

Ruby would have known What A Friend was ground dependantand his decision was made a couple of weeks before the GN.
WP Mullins has shown great loyalty to Ruby ( in Rubys` eyes ) and Ruby has in return.
There maybe a touch of personal reasoning behind his decision. The Midnight Club is fav so he also thought the market had it right at the time. Yet come saturday when the ground is riding good and What A Friend is lining up, he may have serious doubts.
Report Rondetto April 6, 2011 11:24 AM BST
Got nothing to do with loyalty to Willie Mullins mate this is the Grand National and you don't get of a horse with a winning chance to ride something of lesser ability.


Ruby new exactly what he was doing and this horse of his will take the world of beating.
Report Angel Gabrial April 6, 2011 11:35 AM BST
Was he ever on What A Friend? it wasnt even part of the equation untill after the Gold Cup. In Rubys head it was between TMC or Niche Market. What A Friend would have had doubts about the ground and his wellbeing after the Gold Cup. These factors will have gone into his decision making. Mullins has trained/plotted TMC for a long time for the GN. Ruby is reckoning on the horse being unexposed. Just because he has chosen TMC does not mean it will fair better on the day, than WAF.
Report jesusisback April 6, 2011 11:54 AM BST
Let me answer some questions here.

Firstly,

I have a friend who is a agent, and he tells me that a few days after the GC, the owners of WAF asked if RW will be ridin, the answer came back he's undecided, immediately the choice was taken out of his hands, he tells me AF told PN THEIR AND THEN HE WASNT GOING TO BE FECKED ABOUT, so they stayed loyal to GC rider. Not surprising for me, as the man is loyal if nothing else. End of RW stayed with mullins, that is 100% fact as i have been told.

Secondly.

People go on about distance, please, look at the book, tell me how he's not going to see this out, in one of the best run GC's of all time he was doing all his best last on, yes he has to be delivered after the last, but he has 350yds to think about it, the jockey that is, and the blinkers will help again.

Thirdly.

The gamble factor, the housewives etc backing in this country, pales into insugnificance, the amount of bets that will go on in the far east from 6pm-2am their time.

1. They always always go for the top rated horse, the one that is best in. look at your stats for the last few years,

MONKERHOSTIN, prime example.

Also, how many MAN UTD supporters in the far east, their manager has a horse in the race, hes top rated and 1 of the favs..

This will 100% go off fav, mark my words, and he is good enuff, baring trouble to have this in his pocket from valentines 2nd time,

Lay him from their if you dare, not me.
Report Angel Gabrial April 6, 2011 12:19 PM BST
If Jesus and Angel Gabriel are on What A Friend look no further.Happy

It does not surprise me Alex wanted an instant decision.
Report jesusisback April 6, 2011 8:18 PM BST
may get 5/1 about this being fav when markets open tomo,,9/2 with £3.65 at the moment
Report Tony Broke April 6, 2011 8:37 PM BST
purely between midnight and the rock imo
Report Alkeyhole April 6, 2011 9:10 PM BST
regardless of who'll win Don't Push It will be fav
Report jesusisback April 6, 2011 9:28 PM BST
The uk betting market will not decide on which goes off as Fav, it will be the far east, and i can assure you that the midnight club will not go off as fav. Its not the highest rated horse, simple as that.

Their will be a flood of money on What a Friend late on from that area.
Report DavidDraper April 6, 2011 9:52 PM BST
The horse is not a National horse full stop.   The blinkers worked first time.   Second time blinkers rarely work the oracle twice.   Walsh would never pick the horse over Niche Market which is a real National type or The Midnight Club (may be better next year).   I think you are right regarding it going off favourite just like Monkerhostin.  The same thing will happen here.  Sloppy jumping and mistakes followed by a fall or PU.   I hope it does contract in price because I would be happy to lay 10's down.   8's will be a gift.   That's a fact.
Report bbsband April 6, 2011 10:01 PM BST
hows it a fact b4 the race? lol
Report revedesivola April 6, 2011 11:01 PM BST
draper, what makes you think walsh had the choice? nicholls hasnt said hes had the choice
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